Introduction and Expected Value

The most obvious strategic point of Modern Art is the question of how much to pay for a painting versus its expected value (EV); that is, how much should you bid given the amount you expect the painting to be worth at the end of the round? This subject has already been covered in several excellent articles.

My favorite of these other articles is especially worth reading because it contrasts "worthy" opponents (who are competitive with you to win the game, and who you should avoid giving money to) and "unworthy" opponents (who have fallen behind, and should be allowed to get money at the expense of worthy opponents).

However, I feel that the fighting over auction prices vs. EV amounts quarreling over scraps while the real strategic meat goes unnoticed.

Why Modern Art is an Unusual Auction Game

The thing that makes an auction, or an auction game, interesting is that different items for sale have different value to different players. In Ra, one player needs a flood to power his rivers; another needs a sphinx to complete her collection. In Hollywood Blockbuster, one player needs fantastic special effects to win the Best Green Film award; another just needs warm bodies to finish a film before the game ends.

It would seem that Modern Art defies this principle, since every painting sells for the same no matter who owns it. But consider what savvy players do as much as possible: auction paintings of colors they already own, which not only increases the value of those paintings, but tends to generate good money. The important maxim here is that although paintings from the same artist sell the same at the end of the round, the expected value of a painting depends on who is going to own it.

An example: Alice starts the very first auction (an open auction) of the round with, say, a Karl Gitter. Karl was worth 30 last round, but I have none in my hand. My right-hand opponent, Bob, who will start the next auction, bids 35. Clearly he thinks Gitter is going places. Is the expected value 40? 50? Here's the trouble; the expected value is 40 or higher only if Bob wins the auction. If he wins it, he will probably auction another Gitter, likely even a double, to maximize the value of his investment and make money too. If I outbid Bob, he will likely try to promote another artist and, with no opportunity to promote Gitter myself, I may well find myself with a worthless painting. So for this auction, Bob is well-positioned to profit.

Paintings are worth more to players:
Who are about to be able to auction themselves
Who have cards of that artist in their hand, particularly doubles.

You Can Use Bidding to Influence What Cards Others Auction
Alice auctions a Lite Metal painting (once-around). Bob bids $30. The painting will probably be worth $40 no matter what. What should I bid?

Don't let the expected value fool you. Alice is making $30 here and Bob and I are squabbling over $10. What's far more important here is who becomes invested in Lite Metal. If Bob gets it, maybe he will think about playing more Lite Metal or even ending the round. That could be good or bad, depending on what I already have. If I get it, Bob will be less likely to play it, more likely to play something else; which, again, could be good or bad. Far more important that $5 or $9 is the effect that Bob's next auction will have on the round.

Owning Paintings and Opportunity Cost

Owning paintings is great because it often makes you a profit; but to maximize your profits, you may have to sell particular paintings yourself (even ones that may not be the most lucrative to sell) and in some cases, you may even need to sacrifice your turn to auction to end the round. If this will be the case, take the possible opportunity cost of the auction into account when deciding how much a painting is worth to you.

Where Does The Money Come From?

With the somewhat unusual exception of paintings that don't place, wealth is generated every time a painting is auctioned. The money is split in some proportion between the auctioneer and the buyer; in almost every case, the auctioneer gets the lion's share.

Fixed auctions are probably the least valuable for the auctioneer because the auctioneer has to estimate what the value will be to each player should that player get it, and come up with a value that tempts the other player, taking risk averseness and opportunity cost into account. Fixed auctions are best in early rounds (since less money is on the line) and late in rounds (when the cost is more certain.)

Once-around auctions are your best chance to auction a painting, buy it cheaply yourself, and drive up the price later. In this capacity, they work well early in a round. Later in a round, depending on your opponents, you are likely to get 1/2 or 2/3 the expected value of the painting; occasionally you might get close to the full EV.

Open auctions are your best chance to get close to the full EV of a painting. Rarely will you bid on your own unless you are trying to drive up the price--a risky move should your opponents be even a little given to spite. They are best late in the round and saved to later rounds, when their increased value becomes an increased chunk of a bigger pie.

Sealed auctions are much like open auctions but sometimes fetch a slightly lower price; it's difficult to judge what other player's estimates of the value are going to be and there is a tendency to lowball in the hunt for a bargain.

You probably don't need me to mention this, but double auctions are immensely powerful; not only do they allow you to make more money from the sale, but they give you twice as much influence over the prices at the end of the round. These should almost never be used during the first round.

The key to all of these is that the auctioneer gets most of the money, and at no risk or cost other than the opportunity to auction. Therefore, one important, often-overlooked strategy is to maximize the value of the cards in your hand for future rounds. For example: In your opening hand, you hold 5 Krypto paintings including two doubles. Early in the first round, two Krypto paintings are auctioned. You should seriously consider not bidding on them, even if it seems profitable. If Alice wins the first two Kryptos, she may well auction another one or two, depleting her hand of this up-and-coming artist; meanwhile, you save yours for a later round where each one can fetch 60, 70, or even more.

Final Notes

Good luck with this subtle game. When all else fails, consider choosing the Paris player screen. I don't know why, but it sometimes works.