Ever wondered how many Battle Cards you needed to have a 50% or 80% chance
of winning a battle in Hannibal vs. Carthage?
I ran simulations of battles to find the answer. Given a specified attacker,
battle ratings for each general, and Carthage Battle Cards, I calculated how
many Roman Battle cards would be required for the Roman player to win 50% of
the time and 80% of the time respectively. To run the calculation, I played out
each scenario 10,000 times with random hands drawn from the deck every time.
Carthage General Battle Rating 4 assumes Hannibal (with Probe benefit)
I assume each player plays their cards in order of what % of each card type
they have. E.g. with 6 frontal assault and 5 Flank left, Flank left would be played
first because it's a higher percent of that card type. Double Envelopments are always
played second last and reserve last. For Hannibal, Probe is played between DE and Reserve.