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Professor of Pain
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Back in March of 2015 I posted that Hillary Clinton will be the next US president...

Looking at the post convention state of affairs I remain quite confident in that assertion. Here's why.

1) Donald Trump has had a no good, very bad weak that I think will prove to be permanently damaging. His personal derision and his campaign's defamation of Gold Star parents Khizr and Ghazala Khan are widely considered a step too far. According to a Fox News poll (which has Clinton up over Trump by 10 points, by the by):
Dana Blanton wrote:
Finally, 77 percent of voters are familiar with the exchange between Trump and the parents of a Muslim-American soldier who died while serving in Iraq. Some 69 percent of them describe Trump’s criticism of the Khan family as “out of bounds.” Among Republicans, 40 percent think his response was “in bounds,” while 41 percent say “out of bounds,” and 19 percent are unsure.


2) President Obama's approval ratings are fairly high and increasing. That's good news for the incumbent party candidate.

3) The Conventions. While Trump's post convention polling bounce was minimal, around 1.2 points (using the Pollster.com poll aggregator), Clinton seems to have enjoyed a modest but much more significant bounce. Looking at the Pollster.com polling aggregator her bounce is around 4.5 points.

4a) Polling shows Hillary Clinton leading nationally. Pollster.com has her ahead by about 6 or 7 points. Indeed, when you aggregate national polls Clinton has never not led Trump. To wit:


4b) Polling shows Hillary Clinton leading in key battleground states. From CNN's polling round-up
Clinton leads Trump 47% to 32% in New Hampshire (15 points)
Clinton leads Trump 49% to 38% in Pennsylvania (11 points)
Clinton leads Trump 41% to 32% in Michigan (9 points)
Clinton leads Trump 48% to 42% in Florida (6 points)

5) Prediction markets still favor Clinton.
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Professor of Pain
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6) Putin
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Up until about two weeks ago, I was still worried about Trump and was still giving him about a 30% chance of winning the election. Then the Republican convention happened. And then the requests for e-assistance from Russia. And then the Khan controversy.

Donald finally stepped in some things that are sticking. I'd say he's brought himself to the verge of being out of the race and is unlikely to recover.

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Mac Mcleod
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SPIGuy wrote:
Up until about two weeks ago, I was still worried about Trump and was still giving him about a 30% chance of winning the election. Then the Republican convention happened. And then the requests for e-assistance from Russia. And then the Khan controversy.

Donald finally stepped in some things that are sticking. I'd say he's brought himself to the verge of being out of the race and is unlikely to recover.



Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.

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maxo-texas wrote:
SPIGuy wrote:
Up until about two weeks ago, I was still worried about Trump and was still giving him about a 30% chance of winning the election. Then the Republican convention happened. And then the requests for e-assistance from Russia. And then the Khan controversy.

Donald finally stepped in some things that are sticking. I'd say he's brought himself to the verge of being out of the race and is unlikely to recover.



Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


Past candidates already knew that, but Trump is...unique.

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jeremy cobert
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maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


what did he say that was insulting ? I understand the narrative that you guys follow, but have yet to see what Trump said that was "insulting".

It appears to be a new play in the media playbook Last time around it was the "jersey girls" this time its the "wrath of Khan".
I just dont think this hurts Trump with his base.
 
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jeremycobert wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


what did he say that was insulting ? I understand the narrative that you guys follow, but have yet to see what Trump said that was "insulting".

It appears to be a new play in the media playbook Last time around it was the "jersey girls" this time its the "wrath of Khan".
I just dont think this hurts Trump with his base.

Criticizing the parents for speaking their minds was in poor taste. Implying that the wife didn't say anything because Muslim women aren't allowed to express opinions is insulting. Sending supporters and surrogates out to float rumors that the dead soldier was a secret terrorist operative was thoroughly disgusting.

You would be dead wrong to assume that this will have no impact on Trump's base. Plenty of them are vets. Some of them have buddies or family members who were killed in action. Trump's actions show a callous disregard for the sacrifices that military members and military families make.

It's also about more than the base because Trump needs a lot more voters than that if he's going to win the election. Stirring up controversies that alienate elements within your base and elements within your own party is working in exactly the wrong direction.

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Jon Badolato
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jeremycobert wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


what did he say that was insulting ? I understand the narrative that you guys follow, but have yet to see what Trump said that was "insulting".

It appears to be a new play in the media playbook Last time around it was the "jersey girls" this time its the "wrath of Khan".
I just dont think this hurts Trump with his base.


It likely doesn't hurt Trump with his base. But it also likely doesn't endear him to those who are not currently his base and whom he needs to attract and vote for him to have a chance of winning the election. If just his base votes for him, and he doesn't pull in other undecided voters then he isn't going to win. This episode isn't getting that done.
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Chad Ellis
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jeremycobert wrote:
what did he say that was insulting ? I understand the narrative that you guys follow, but have yet to see what Trump said that was "insulting".


He implied that the mother wasn't allowed to have an opinion or to speak because of her religion. His surrogates accused the father of being part of the Muslim Brotherhood and accused the son of being a terrorist who was secretly waiting to kill U.S. troops.

Quote:
I just dont think this hurts Trump with his base.


It probably doesn't, but who is saying that it does? Trump will likely keep his base, but his base won't be enough to win the election.
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Drew
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Thanks for the rent-free space in your head. Would have been nice if you'd cleaned it up a bit before you rented it out, though.
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maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


Unless that person died in Benghazi.

Then it's "How dare she criticize her highness, Hillary!"
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Tyler Gobe
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Drew1365 wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


Unless that person died in Benghazi.

Then it's "How dare she criticize her highness, Hillary!"

I haven't seen ANYONE say the kinds of things about her that Trump and his camp have said about the Khan, let alone someone working for Hillary.
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Professor of Pain
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Drew1365 wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.

Unless that person died in Benghazi.

Then it's "How dare she criticize her highness, Hillary!"

Did I miss the part where Clinton insulted Patricia Smith?
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Professor of Pain
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A new McClatchy-Marist poll has Clinton up 15 points over Trump.
Quote:
Clinton not only went up, but Trump also went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 percent lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.

The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in an explosion in Iraq 12 years ago while trying to rescue other soldiers.
Obviously one poll is one poll. Poll aggregates and trend lines are generally much better measures of the state of a race so take this with a grain of salt. There is one particularly telling result, however:
Quote:
More encouraging for Clinton, 57 percent of her backers say their vote is for her, while 40 percent say it’s largely an anti-Trump vote.
[...]
Most of Trump’s backers – 57 percent – say their vote is against Clinton, while only 36 percent called it a pro-Trump decision.

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Pontifex Maximus
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Drew1365 wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


Unless that person died in Benghazi.

Then it's "How dare she criticize her highness, Hillary!"


I see you managed to miss Trump's people say the father was an agent of the Muslim Brotherhood and slander the son as well
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Elfbane wrote:
A new McClatchy-Marist poll has Clinton up 15 points over Trump.
Quote:
Clinton not only went up, but Trump also went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 percent lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.

The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in an explosion in Iraq 12 years ago while trying to rescue other soldiers.
Obviously one poll is one poll. Poll aggregates and trend lines are generally much better measures of the state of a race so take this with a grain of salt. There is one particularly telling result, however:
Quote:
More encouraging for Clinton, 57 percent of her backers say their vote is for her, while 40 percent say it’s largely an anti-Trump vote.
[...]
Most of Trump’s backers – 57 percent – say their vote is against Clinton, while only 36 percent called it a pro-Trump decision.


I expect more movement in the polls as we get into next week.

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Chief Slovenly
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I think I'm in love and I want to marry a former national security adviser to the Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush campaigns.

This love is pure, and wonderful, and I don't care who knows it:

John Noonan wrote:
"You can pull somebody out of the insane asylum and staff him with the best people in the business, and he's still going to be in the parking lot screaming about the book of Revelations and there's nothing you can do about it. Hillary's the placekicker on the field. She's shanking every kick. And Trump's the guy pleasuring himself in the stands."
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bbenston wrote:
I think I'm in love and I want to marry a former national security adviser to the Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush campaigns.

This love is pure, and wonderful, and I don't care who knows it:

John Noonan wrote:
"You can pull somebody out of the insane asylum and staff him with the best people in the business, and he's still going to be in the parking lot screaming about the book of Revelations and there's nothing you can do about it. Hillary's the placekicker on the field. She's shanking every kick. And Trump's the guy pleasuring himself in the stands."

I don't know. I think the Clinton campaign has been a pleasant surprise so far. Hillary was never going to discover a charismatic side, but she's been more animated and looks suited to her role. All she has to do is play it safe and look presidential for the next three months while Trump runs his mouth and proves how unpresidential he is. And a really good choice for VP is icing on the cake.

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Oh, and here's Karl Rove in yesterday's Journal:

Victory Is Slipping Away for Trump

Karl Rove wrote:
Imagine if Mr. Trump had opened his post-convention news conference with a bold rallying cry on the issues and then spent three days barnstorming battleground states, appearing with workers, small-business owners and first responders.

Rather than fighting with the Khans, he could have seized on Friday’s lousy GDP report to explain how a Trump White House would result in more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity. Instead of grousing about debate schedules Sunday and attacking fire marshals, Mr. Trump could have responded to Mrs. Clinton’s interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News, where she continued lying about her private email server.

No one on Team Trump—especially not the principal—appears to have a plan for what messages to emphasize and when. No one seems charged with watching what Mrs. Clinton says so the candidate can quickly volley back. No one restrains Mr. Trump before he activates his Twitter account. Ad hoc may be freewheeling and fun, but it often leads to defeat.

The White House is not out of reach for Mr. Trump, who now trails by 4.5% in the Real Clear average. But victory is slipping away. If he has more weeks like the dreadful past two, the gap between him and Mrs. Clinton is likely to widen and never close again.

Rove nails it. Unfocused. Undisciplined. Unplanned. Off message.

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Seth Brown
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SPIGuy wrote:

You would be dead wrong to assume that this will have no impact on Trump's base. Plenty of them are vets. Some of them have buddies or family members who were killed in action. Trump's actions show a callous disregard for the sacrifices that military members and military families make.

Between his reaction to the Gold Star soldier's family, and his comments about the Purple Heart, I'd be tempted to agree -- but my friend the Vet who posts the most Vet stuff on my Facebook feed is still solidly in the Clinton-haters camp.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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jonb wrote:
jeremycobert wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


what did he say that was insulting ? I understand the narrative that you guys follow, but have yet to see what Trump said that was "insulting".

It appears to be a new play in the media playbook Last time around it was the "jersey girls" this time its the "wrath of Khan".
I just dont think this hurts Trump with his base.


It likely doesn't hurt Trump with his base. But it also likely doesn't endear him to those who are not currently his base and whom he needs to attract and vote for him to have a chance of winning the election. If just his base votes for him, and he doesn't pull in other undecided voters then he isn't going to win. This episode isn't getting that done.


His polling dropped like a stone the day he did that.

Could have been random. But it was one of the sharpest, largest polling moves of the entire campaign.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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SPIGuy wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
SPIGuy wrote:
Up until about two weeks ago, I was still worried about Trump and was still giving him about a 30% chance of winning the election. Then the Republican convention happened. And then the requests for e-assistance from Russia. And then the Khan controversy.

Donald finally stepped in some things that are sticking. I'd say he's brought himself to the verge of being out of the race and is unlikely to recover.



Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


Past candidates already knew that, but Trump is...unique.



Thank you for seeing the slow softball I lobbed out there and for knocking it out of the park.
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Mac Mcleod
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SPIGuy wrote:
bbenston wrote:
I think I'm in love and I want to marry a former national security adviser to the Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush campaigns.

This love is pure, and wonderful, and I don't care who knows it:

John Noonan wrote:
"You can pull somebody out of the insane asylum and staff him with the best people in the business, and he's still going to be in the parking lot screaming about the book of Revelations and there's nothing you can do about it. Hillary's the placekicker on the field. She's shanking every kick. And Trump's the guy pleasuring himself in the stands."

I don't know. I think the Clinton campaign has been a pleasant surprise so far. Hillary was never going to discover a charismatic side, but she's been more animated and looks suited to her role. All she has to do is play it safe and look presidential for the next three months while Trump runs his mouth and proves how unpresidential he is. And a really good choice for VP is icing on the cake.



I'm not sure Kaine is a really good choice. But he is certainly not a really bad choice. And if Kaine delivers a state which she would have otherwise lost, then he's yer icing.
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Mac Mcleod
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Elfbane wrote:
A new McClatchy-Marist poll has Clinton up 15 points over Trump.
Quote:
Clinton not only went up, but Trump also went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 percent lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.

The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in an explosion in Iraq 12 years ago while trying to rescue other soldiers.
Obviously one poll is one poll. Poll aggregates and trend lines are generally much better measures of the state of a race so take this with a grain of salt. There is one particularly telling result, however:
Quote:
More encouraging for Clinton, 57 percent of her backers say their vote is for her, while 40 percent say it’s largely an anti-Trump vote.
[...]
Most of Trump’s backers – 57 percent – say their vote is against Clinton, while only 36 percent called it a pro-Trump decision.



The astonishing thing is that by many measures, clinton should be unelectable.

But the republicans ran so many unelectable candidates and tossed the few who could have beaten clinton.
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Chris R.
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Quote:
Quote:
Future candidates will know.. you should not insult the parents of u.s. military who died while serving.


Unless that person died in Benghazi.

Then it's "How dare she criticize her highness, Hillary!"


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J
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jeremycobert wrote:
I just dont think this hurts Trump with his base.
of course it doesn't! But that's not the point. Neither the GOP nor the Democratic bases are enough by themselves to win an election.
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