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Subject: Is the race over? rss

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Mac Mcleod
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/16/upshot/the-state-of-the-cl...

Quote:
On that basis, you can expect a wave of articles about how the presidential race is basically “over.”

That’s probably a bit too strong, at least from a historical point of view. The Upshot’s model gives Mrs. Clinton an 88 percent chance of winning. It’s about the same probability of hitting a field goal from the 20-yard line.

That’s a pretty good way to think about it. If Mrs. Clinton ultimately wins, we will probably look back and say she had more or less already won it by this point. If she loses, these next two months will be talked about for decades.

The game-winning field-goal analogy has one big weakness: She may win this by a lot more than a field goal.

The possibility of a landslide victory for Mrs. Clinton — one larger than any since 1984 in the national popular vote — is larger than the chance that Mr. Trump will pull it out.


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-...
Quote:

Clinton has 1,011 ways to win; 99% of paths
3 ties;<1% of paths
Trump has 10 ways to win;1% of paths


Don't assume it is over for a second. Get out the vote. This is probably one of the more important votes in our nation's history.

There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable. The presidential debates could flip the race overnight. Trump just not being an asshat for a few weeks could increase his chance of winning by 10%. Clinton could make some horrible verbal mistep. While she is clearly better than Trump, she's not liked with the passion that Trump and Bernie were. She's just the gritty, hard working, wonky, competent candidate. She looks much better than she should because her opponent is historically bad in an unprecedented way.

So don't rest on your laurels.
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Junior McSpiffy
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And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.
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Mac Mcleod
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GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.


If Texas looks certain to go Trump, I'll be voting for Gary Johnson. If my state has a chance of not electing trump, I'll vote clinton.
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GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.

yep, all the votes for Perot or Nader really gave "the system" the what for!
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maxo-texas wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.


If Texas looks certain to go Trump, I'll be voting for Gary Johnson. If my state has a chance of not electing trump, I'll vote clinton.


This is me as well.
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Mac Mcleod
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jmilum wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.

yep, all the votes for Perot or Nader really gave "the system" the what for!


Bernie was hugely more effective than Nadar.
And Trump was incredibly more effective than Perot.
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jmilum wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.

yep, all the votes for Perot or Nader really gave "the system" the what for!


Trump in essence is the Perot of this election. And Nadar was only the "raider" because the election was in within 1% of each other...so it mattered.

I think if Clinton is running 8 point ahead before the election, I doubt a third party vote is really needed.

But I'd like to see at least a decorum of a third party option. Plus I like Johnson more than the other two.
 
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I can't in good conscience vote for either of these shit stains in the underpants of humanity. Abraham Lincoln gets my vote again. Or Gary Johnson. Or nobody.

Maybe I'll vote for myself.

My platform is as follows:

1. Legalize drugs.
2. Annex Mexico.


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maxo-texas wrote:

There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


The thing is, it's hard to imagine a prominent Republican candidate that could have beaten her handily, even though she's tainted as hell.

Jeb? Not even the Republican party wanted another Bush. Hell, at least W. had a certain goofy appeal. Jeb is human cardboard. Even Hilary Clinton looks like 'the fun one' next to Jeb. That clip of him pathetically begging for applause is his campaign in a nutshell.

Cruz? He's basically reptilian. He's like the odious, villainous little shit in a kid's movie, who slipped into a misshapen adult costume. Everything about him is repugnant, even to his own political allies. Clinton would look like solid gold next to that smug, oily fuck. "Sure, she's corrupt, but unlike her opponent, I don't suspect her of being a cannibal."

Carson seems like a severe concussion victim that has gone untreated for decades. Ryan is still pushing a Libertarian fantasy that he should have outgrown decades ago. Rubio is a software program given flesh. And the Huckabee/Santorum/whatever types can win some anthill primary full of rubes, but the normals aren't going to vote for a theocracy no matter how much cable news they watch.

The field was so pathetic that it was beaten by a cartoon bully who basically did a 180 on almost every belief he once held, and completely got away with it. I don't know if Trump genuinely believes the stupid shit he says - he shows classic symptoms of Scared, Aging White Man Syndrome - or if he's simply running a scam and he figured the G.O.P. base has a much higher ratio of angry slack-jaws to prop him up. Either way, Trump beat the dog shit out of them. It's hard to imagine Clinton not doing the same.
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eaglebeak wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


The thing is, it's hard to imagine a prominent Republican candidate that could have beaten her handily, even though she's tainted as hell.

Jeb? Not even the Republican party wanted another Bush. Hell, at least W. had a certain goofy appeal. Jeb is human cardboard. Even Hilary Clinton looks like 'the fun one' next to Jeb. That clip of him pathetically begging for applause is his campaign in a nutshell.

Cruz? He's basically reptilian. He's like the odious, villainous little shit in a kid's movie, who slipped into a misshapen adult costume. Everything about him is repugnant, even to his own political allies. Clinton would look like solid gold next to that smug, oily fuck. "Sure, she's corrupt, but unlike her opponent, I don't suspect her of being a cannibal."

Carson seems like a severe concussion victim that has gone untreated for decades. Ryan is still pushing a Libertarian fantasy that he should have outgrown decades ago. Rubio is a software program given flesh. And the Huckabee/Santorum/whatever types can win some anthill primary full of rubes, but the normals aren't going to vote for a theocracy no matter how much cable news they watch.

The field was so pathetic that it was beaten by a cartoon bully who basically did a 180 on almost every belief he once held, and completely got away with it. I don't know if Trump genuinely believes the stupid shit he says - he shows classic symptoms of Scared, Aging White Man Syndrome - or if he's simply running a scam and he figured the G.O.P. base has a much higher ratio of angry slack-jaws to prop him up. Either way, Trump beat the dog shit out of them. It's hard to imagine Clinton not doing the same.


Never underestimate the ability of the average voter to vote for the White Male when given two options with even a bit of parity.
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eaglebeak wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


The thing is, it's hard to imagine a prominent Republican candidate that could have beaten her handily, even though she's tainted as hell.

Jeb? Not even the Republican party wanted another Bush. Hell, at least W. had a certain goofy appeal. Jeb is human cardboard. Even Hilary Clinton looks like 'the fun one' next to Jeb. That clip of him pathetically begging for applause is his campaign in a nutshell.

Cruz? He's basically reptilian. He's like the odious, villainous little shit in a kid's movie, who slipped into a misshapen adult costume. Everything about him is repugnant, even to his own political allies. Clinton would look like solid gold next to that smug, oily fuck. "Sure, she's corrupt, but unlike her opponent, I don't suspect her of being a cannibal."

Carson seems like a severe concussion victim that has gone untreated for decades. Ryan is still pushing a Libertarian fantasy that he should have outgrown decades ago. Rubio is a software program given flesh. And the Huckabee/Santorum/whatever types can win some anthill primary full of rubes, but the normals aren't going to vote for a theocracy no matter how much cable news they watch.

The field was so pathetic that it was beaten by a cartoon bully who basically did a 180 on almost every belief he once held, and completely got away with it. I don't know if Trump genuinely believes the stupid shit he says - he shows classic symptoms of Scared, Aging White Man Syndrome - or if he's simply running a scam and he figured the G.O.P. base has a much higher ratio of angry slack-jaws to prop him up. Either way, Trump beat the dog shit out of them. It's hard to imagine Clinton not doing the same.


Yea, people are really harsh on the Dems for nominating Hillary, but the entire Republican field was a disaster, and it was a HUGE field.

Is the Republican Party completely out of serviceable politicians or what?
 
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Shampoo4you wrote:
eaglebeak wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


The thing is, it's hard to imagine a prominent Republican candidate that could have beaten her handily, even though she's tainted as hell.

Jeb? Not even the Republican party wanted another Bush. Hell, at least W. had a certain goofy appeal. Jeb is human cardboard. Even Hilary Clinton looks like 'the fun one' next to Jeb. That clip of him pathetically begging for applause is his campaign in a nutshell.

Cruz? He's basically reptilian. He's like the odious, villainous little shit in a kid's movie, who slipped into a misshapen adult costume. Everything about him is repugnant, even to his own political allies. Clinton would look like solid gold next to that smug, oily fuck. "Sure, she's corrupt, but unlike her opponent, I don't suspect her of being a cannibal."

Carson seems like a severe concussion victim that has gone untreated for decades. Ryan is still pushing a Libertarian fantasy that he should have outgrown decades ago. Rubio is a software program given flesh. And the Huckabee/Santorum/whatever types can win some anthill primary full of rubes, but the normals aren't going to vote for a theocracy no matter how much cable news they watch.

The field was so pathetic that it was beaten by a cartoon bully who basically did a 180 on almost every belief he once held, and completely got away with it. I don't know if Trump genuinely believes the stupid shit he says - he shows classic symptoms of Scared, Aging White Man Syndrome - or if he's simply running a scam and he figured the G.O.P. base has a much higher ratio of angry slack-jaws to prop him up. Either way, Trump beat the dog shit out of them. It's hard to imagine Clinton not doing the same.


Yea, people are really harsh on the Dems for nominating Hillary, but the entire Republican field was a disaster, and it was a HUGE field.

Is the Republican Party completely out of serviceable politicians or what?


I think Ryan could pull it off in the next election, if he tones down his pseudo-Libertarian rhetoric a LITTLE bit more.

He's certainly charismatic, and while I disagree with his conclusions on a lot of topics, he's at least clear and lucid in arguing his positions with SOME kind of data.

A run at the next election would also see him benefit from his then-4-more-years experience in a senior leadership position in the House.

IMHO, he'd have a pretty good shot at beating Hillary's re-election attempt - and if the House and Senate had tilted left by then, combined with Hillary's more-liberal Supreme Court nominations...then a reasonable and moderate Republican President would I think be agreeable to a lot of people as a counter-balance. And he seems like he could pull that persona off. Question remains, of course, whether the Republican party is, itself, even interested in that. Or are they going to pull even harder in the direction of 'angry old white man' and become completely irrelevant...
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Trey Chambers
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XanderF wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
eaglebeak wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


The thing is, it's hard to imagine a prominent Republican candidate that could have beaten her handily, even though she's tainted as hell.

Jeb? Not even the Republican party wanted another Bush. Hell, at least W. had a certain goofy appeal. Jeb is human cardboard. Even Hilary Clinton looks like 'the fun one' next to Jeb. That clip of him pathetically begging for applause is his campaign in a nutshell.

Cruz? He's basically reptilian. He's like the odious, villainous little shit in a kid's movie, who slipped into a misshapen adult costume. Everything about him is repugnant, even to his own political allies. Clinton would look like solid gold next to that smug, oily fuck. "Sure, she's corrupt, but unlike her opponent, I don't suspect her of being a cannibal."

Carson seems like a severe concussion victim that has gone untreated for decades. Ryan is still pushing a Libertarian fantasy that he should have outgrown decades ago. Rubio is a software program given flesh. And the Huckabee/Santorum/whatever types can win some anthill primary full of rubes, but the normals aren't going to vote for a theocracy no matter how much cable news they watch.

The field was so pathetic that it was beaten by a cartoon bully who basically did a 180 on almost every belief he once held, and completely got away with it. I don't know if Trump genuinely believes the stupid shit he says - he shows classic symptoms of Scared, Aging White Man Syndrome - or if he's simply running a scam and he figured the G.O.P. base has a much higher ratio of angry slack-jaws to prop him up. Either way, Trump beat the dog shit out of them. It's hard to imagine Clinton not doing the same.


Yea, people are really harsh on the Dems for nominating Hillary, but the entire Republican field was a disaster, and it was a HUGE field.

Is the Republican Party completely out of serviceable politicians or what?


I think Ryan could pull it off in the next election, if he tones down his pseudo-Libertarian rhetoric a LITTLE bit more.

He's certainly charismatic, and while I disagree with his conclusions on a lot of topics, he's at least clear and lucid in arguing his positions with SOME kind of data.

A run at the next election would also see him benefit from his then-4-more-years experience in a senior leadership position in the House.

IMHO, he'd have a pretty good shot at beating Hillary's re-election attempt - and if the House and Senate had tilted left by then, combined with Hillary's more-liberal Supreme Court nominations...then a reasonable and moderate Republican President would I think be agreeable to a lot of people as a counter-balance. And he seems like he could pull that persona off. Question remains, of course, whether the Republican party is, itself, even interested in that. Or are they going to pull even harder in the direction of 'angry old white man' and become completely irrelevant...


Ryan is at least willing to compromise and doesn't seem crazy or dogmatic. If Hillary had a really terrible term and Ryan doesn't endorse any of the GOP's hardline positions on social issues, I could possibly vote for him. But if he doesn't tow the line on abortion and gay marriage and all that jazz I doubt he even wins the primary versus a Cruz or Rubio.
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maxo-texas wrote:
There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


This assumption relies on erroneous assumptions about Clinton's popularity/lack thereof and how the GOP base differs from the general electorate. A few points need to be made about Clinton's popularity/unpopularity:

1. The people who really dislike Hillary really dislike her intensely, but the people who like Hillary like her either just as intensely or reasonably well.

2. Many of the people who dislike Hillary will still vote for her, which is why she is currently stampeding all over Trump.

3. Hillary's approval ratings, historically, are net positives. The only times they become net negatives is when she runs for office. It's actually kind of striking: the moment she bowed out of the 2008 presidential race, her approval ratings flipped to net positive in about a month and then stayed there, with a general +10 to +15 spread (which is very good for any politician), then tightened to +5 to +10 after she left SoS in 2012 until her campaign started in earnest in first quarter 2015, when they flipped. You can't blame the approval flip on Benghazi because she had already been taking shit for that for over a year and it didn't ding her, nor did it appreciable decrease in any statistically significant way during the emails flap. What it means that many voters decide they only don't like Hillary when she runs for office I leave up to the observer, but it does indicate that the dislike for Hillary is, for many people, relatively shallow and not indicative of passionate hatred.

4. Democrats like Hillary just fine for the most part; it's Republicans who comprise the largest part of Hillary-hate, combined with conservative independents. The problem is that the GOP has to run the table with its base and leaners to win the Presidency now, because they've completely destroyed their non-white outreach over the past few elections, and the GOP base is smaller than the Dem base (and shrinking). Hillary, like most Democrats, thus has an innate advantage at the Presidential level.

5. The assumption that Hillary was beatable exists in the idea that other candidates could hypothetically beat her, like Bush or Rubio, but the problem is that Bush and Rubio were never going to win the primaries, because they were terrible candidates who couldn't get the base to vote for them. Ted Cruz won Iowa handily, came in third in New Hampshire and essentially tied for second in South Carolina, and the majority of Trump's voters considered Cruz their second choice. If Trump hadn't run, Cruz would have won Iowa, probably managed a decent second in NH, then won SC handily, and dominated the South on Super Tuesday #1 and that would more or less be the ball game. And Cruz did NOT poll well against Hillary in hypothetical head-to-heads.

Donald Trump won because the GOP base wanted a rampaging anti-establishment fanatic. Someone who was not that thing might have been able to beat Hillary, but never would have won the GOP primaries. What the GOP base wants now is directly antithetical to what the general electorate wants.
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mightygodking wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


This assumption relies on erroneous assumptions about Clinton's popularity/lack thereof and how the GOP base differs from the general electorate. A few points need to be made about Clinton's popularity/unpopularity:

1. The people who really dislike Hillary really dislike her intensely, but the people who like Hillary like her either just as intensely or reasonably well.

2. Many of the people who dislike Hillary will still vote for her, which is why she is currently stampeding all over Trump.

3. Hillary's approval ratings, historically, are net positives. The only times they become net negatives is when she runs for office. It's actually kind of striking: the moment she bowed out of the 2008 presidential race, her approval ratings flipped to net positive in about a month and then stayed there, with a general +10 to +15 spread (which is very good for any politician), then tightened to +5 to +10 after she left SoS in 2012 until her campaign started in earnest in first quarter 2015, when they flipped. You can't blame the approval flip on Benghazi because she had already been taking shit for that for over a year and it didn't ding her, nor did it appreciable decrease in any statistically significant way during the emails flap. What it means that many voters decide they only don't like Hillary when she runs for office I leave up to the observer, but it does indicate that the dislike for Hillary is, for many people, relatively shallow and not indicative of passionate hatred.

4. Democrats like Hillary just fine for the most part; it's Republicans who comprise the largest part of Hillary-hate, combined with conservative independents. The problem is that the GOP has to run the table with its base and leaners to win the Presidency now, because they've completely destroyed their non-white outreach over the past few elections, and the GOP base is smaller than the Dem base (and shrinking). Hillary, like most Democrats, thus has an innate advantage at the Presidential level.

5. The assumption that Hillary was beatable exists in the idea that other candidates could hypothetically beat her, like Bush or Rubio, but the problem is that Bush and Rubio were never going to win the primaries, because they were terrible candidates who couldn't get the base to vote for them. Ted Cruz won Iowa handily, came in third in New Hampshire and essentially tied for second in South Carolina, and the majority of Trump's voters considered Cruz their second choice. If Trump hadn't run, Cruz would have won Iowa, probably managed a decent second in NH, then won SC handily, and dominated the South on Super Tuesday #1 and that would more or less be the ball game. And Cruz did NOT poll well against Hillary in hypothetical head-to-heads.

Donald Trump won because the GOP base wanted a rampaging anti-establishment fanatic. Someone who was not that thing might have been able to beat Hillary, but never would have won the GOP primaries. What the GOP base wants now is directly antithetical to what the general electorate wants.


Yup. And Ryan will have a similar problem in 2020. Bend over backwards to the crazies to win the nom and become unelectable in the general, or be able to beat Hillary but unable to win the primary in the first place.
 
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/fl...

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton
RCP Average 7/30 - 8/12 -- -- 45.6 42.0 Clinton +3.6
CBSNews/YouGov* 8/10 - 8/12 1194 LV 3.6 45 40 Clinton +5
FOX13/Opin Svy* 8/10 - 8/10 622 LV 4.0 45 44 Clinton +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 8/4 - 8/10 862 RV 3.3 44 39 Clinton +5
Quinnipiac 7/30 - 8/7 1056 LV 3.0 46 45 Clinton +1
Suffolk Univ 8/1 - 8/3 500 LV 4.4 48 42 Clinton +6


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GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.


A vote for Gary is a vote for Trump. How do I know this?

Because Trump supporters have conviction. Hillary supporters can barely stand Hillary.
 
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mistermarino wrote:
I can't in good conscience vote for either of these shit stains in the underpants of humanity. Abraham Lincoln gets my vote again. Or Gary Johnson. Or nobody.

Maybe I'll vote for myself.

My platform is as follows:

1. Legalize drugs.
2. Annex Mexico.




#2 because #1?
 
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Sarxis wrote:
GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.


A vote for Gary is a vote for Trump. How do I know this?

Because Trump supporters have conviction. Hillary supporters can barely stand Hillary.

Are you going to vote Trump?
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eaglebeak wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:

There are many people who really don't like Clinton. As I've said elsewhere, she should have been unelectable.


The thing is, it's hard to imagine a prominent Republican candidate that could have beaten her handily, even though she's tainted as hell.

Jeb? Not even the Republican party wanted another Bush. Hell, at least W. had a certain goofy appeal. Jeb is human cardboard. Even Hilary Clinton looks like 'the fun one' next to Jeb. That clip of him pathetically begging for applause is his campaign in a nutshell.

Cruz? He's basically reptilian. He's like the odious, villainous little shit in a kid's movie, who slipped into a misshapen adult costume. Everything about him is repugnant, even to his own political allies. Clinton would look like solid gold next to that smug, oily fuck. "Sure, she's corrupt, but unlike her opponent, I don't suspect her of being a cannibal."

Carson seems like a severe concussion victim that has gone untreated for decades. Ryan is still pushing a Libertarian fantasy that he should have outgrown decades ago. Rubio is a software program given flesh. And the Huckabee/Santorum/whatever types can win some anthill primary full of rubes, but the normals aren't going to vote for a theocracy no matter how much cable news they watch.

The field was so pathetic that it was beaten by a cartoon bully who basically did a 180 on almost every belief he once held, and completely got away with it. I don't know if Trump genuinely believes the stupid shit he says - he shows classic symptoms of Scared, Aging White Man Syndrome - or if he's simply running a scam and he figured the G.O.P. base has a much higher ratio of angry slack-jaws to prop him up. Either way, Trump beat the dog shit out of them. It's hard to imagine Clinton not doing the same.


Remember when Ferret was saying that the Republican field of seventeen candidates were the most impressive in American history? Or, words to that effect.
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mistermarino wrote:

Maybe I'll vote for myself.

My platform is as follows:

1. Legalize drugs.
2. Annex Mexico.




Please tell me more.
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jmilum wrote:
yep, all the votes for Perot or Nader really gave "the system" the what for!
Yes, they gave us Trump and Sanders.
 
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The nationalistic vein of supporters Trump has tapped into - who don't particularly by into warmed-over Reaganism - but care about the US being seen as dominant and resent coastal cosmopolitianism - is not going away.

If you got someone who had the combination of the charisma of Trump and the intelligence and strategic ruthlessness of Cruz, then they could go a long, long way exploiting the psychographic Trump appeals to.
 
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Sarxis wrote:


A vote for Gary is a vote for Trump. How do I know this?

Because Trump supporters have conviction. Hillary supporters can barely stand Hillary.


Actually, Johnson is taking about as many voters from Clinton as Trump. SO it looks like you are not correct.

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James King
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GameCrossing wrote:
And vote for Gary Johnson. Because in this most important election, you have a chance to tell the system that we are unhappy with the slop in our trough.

On the contrary, since you've never complained about the "slop" in your "trough" before now (which sounds suspiciously enough like TeaPartyspeak), you can just continue to "wallow" in your Republican "mudhole" and smoke Libertarian doobie all you want. Just don't try blowin' ganja-laden smoke rings about pot-headed Gary Johnson up our collective arses.


 
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