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BoardGameGeek» Forums » Everything Else » Religion, Sex, and Politics

Subject: Clinton overperforming Obama 2012 rss

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Plotted below are median Clinton-minus-Trump margins in all states for which August polling is available, plotted against Obama-over-Romney margins at the same point in the 2012 campaign. This horizontal axis quantity is better to plot than the final Obama-Romney election margins, which include undecided voters’ final commitments – not a fair comparison.

The data come from RealClearPolitics.

Clinton is overperforming Obama in 14 out of 16 states, the significant exceptions being deeply Democratic Maine and New York. Overall, the difference is a median of 5.8 +/- 1.4% (estimated one-sigma SEM).
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/16/clinton-runs-5-8-po...


I didn't expect that, but I'm sure it's due more to dislike of Trump, than like of Hillary.
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