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Subject: The polls continue to close - why? rss

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R. Frazier
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According to fivethirtyeight, what looked briefly like an easy win for Hillary is beginning to look like a tighter and tighter race.

So what explains this trend? Trump looked terrible after his convention. Hillary responded by trying to capitalize on that weakness (maybe?) and attack the "alt right".

I haven't seen explanations for the trend, but I really think this kind of behavior is probably why her numbers are slipping. Hillary is never less appealing to voters then when she's on the attack, and her attacks have been strange. Saying "bad people support you" is not, in my opinion, a reason not to vote for a person.

Yes, she has been focusing on Trump's own associations with the "alt right" but by focusing on Trump supporters really nobody knows or cares about not Trump himself and the insane shit he says, I think she makes herself less and less appealing - she looks paranoid and irrationally accusatory.

Additionally, I think her intent is to say "look at these really bad people, you don't want to be associated with THEM do you?" but I think the message a lot of people get is "if you don't like me, I'm going to accuse you of being a racist islamaphobe". This IMO drives voters away from her.

The bottom line here is IMO attacking the "enemy voter" is a huge, huge mistake and I don't see why she keeps making it.

I think the other things here are:

1. She is really uncharismatic as I've said from the start.
2. The national mood is pro-change and she is not offering any kind of change. Trump is offering insane and incoherent change, but it is change. She's offering to take her turn as president.
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Sam I am
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The American electorate has the attention span of a squirrel.
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J.D. Hall
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I think it's more a matter of:

1. More revelations from the e-mail server scandal, particularly involving the Clinton Foundation

2. The horrendous manner in which her campaign staff handled the "fainting" incident at NYC's 9/11 memorial, dribbling out information on her health, which continues the idea that Clinton is secretive as opposed to being transparent

3. Like the GOP, the Democrats put forth their worst possible candidate. Sanders would be wiping the floor with Trump right now.
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Boaty McBoatface
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remorseless1 wrote:
I think it's more a matter of:

1. More revelations from the e-mail server scandal, particularly involving the Clinton Foundation

2. The horrendous manner in which her campaign staff handled the "fainting" incident at NYC's 9/11 memorial, dribbling out information on her health, which continues the idea that Clinton is secretive as opposed to being transparent

3. Like the GOP, the Democrats put forth their worst possible candidate. Sanders would be wiping the floor with Trump right now.
I suspect it is mainly the storm in a tea cup over 2.

I think most people are frankly bored with 1 and take no real notice.

There is also the fact that Trump is at least now making some effort to be "just another candidate".

I am not sure however how much staying power any of these have.
 
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rylfrazier wrote:
So what explains this trend?
When she is able to put herself, her actual self, before the people, the electorate is fine with her. But in between appearances she lets the opposition control the narrative, which works on the rubes, until she pops up again in a debate or a public appearance where people can see she does not have actually have scales, slit-eyes, and a forked tail, she's just another Democratic politician that people seem to be okay with, then her poll numbers go up.

Plus, it's hard to attack an asshole who doesn't care that he's an asshole.
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fightcitymayor wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
So what explains this trend?
When she is able to put herself, her actual self, before the people, the electorate is fine with her. But in between appearances she lets the opposition control the narrative, which works on the rubes, until she pops up again in a debate or a public appearance where people can see she does not have actually have scales, slit-eyes, and a forked tail, she's just another Democratic politician that people seem to be okay with, then her poll numbers go up.

Plus, it's hard to attack an asshole who doesn't care that he's an asshole.


Her actual self calls a large amount of the country deplorable racists... Actually I can see how YOU ALL would think the electorate is fine with that.
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Chris
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People are sick of the left's political correct/social justice warrior/safe space bullshit.
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Boaty McBoatface
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galad2003 wrote:
People are sick of the left's political correct/social justice warrior/safe space bullshit.
Is this the safe space bullshit that involves punching pensioners or the other kind?
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Sam I am
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People are sick and tired of being pissed off, sick and tired about various butt-hurts both real and mostly imaginary.
 
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Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?
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Boaty McBoatface
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TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?
Some of us have been saying she is from the start, we just do not think she is as bad as Trump.
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R. Frazier
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I do think the "people are sick and tired of x" vote is basically what I've been saying - this is a "change" election.

Yes, it's probably not reasonable to think a "change" from a more pro-business culture to a even more pro business culture will have any positives for the workers in those businesses, but it's an idea. To the worker who feels like he or she didn't participate much in the recovery and doesn't feel rich or successful, change sounds good.

IMO, Obama has done a lot for the working person, but it probably doesn't feel like a lot to those who are still struggling, and the idea that more could be done by another person is attractive.

In this case the other person is so obviously not a good candidate, but the default position for a lot of voters has got to be "lets try something else" and that was Bernie, not Hillary.
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R. Frazier
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TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?


I guess it depends on who you mean by "some people." I have been saying Hillary is a weak candidate who I don't care for since this started, so I agree with myself on that subject.

People who say she's a murderer and will grab all yo guns, no, I don't agree with those people because they're stupid.
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rylfrazier wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?


I guess it depends on who you mean by "some people." I have been saying Hillary is a weak candidate who I don't care for since this started, so I agree with myself on that subject.

People who say she's a murderer and will grab all yo guns, no, I don't agree with those people because they're stupid.
.

So Hillary Clinton would not go after stricter gun control?
 
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I think a portion of the narrowing is due to spin and questions asked. The horse race is king.

I think there's been somewhat of a lull in Trump's Trumpishness, while at the same time Clinton has been backbirnering a lot.

I dxpect the debates to be interesting.

I don't think calling out the horrible of Trump's supporters is bad. People do need to question exactly who they are climbing into bed with and which votes a candidate is actively seeking. It matters.
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slatersteven wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?
Some of us have been saying she is from the start, we just do not think she is as bad as Trump.


Exactly we are faced with two bad choices. The thing is DJT is demonstrably unfit to hold the office. HRC although capable of holding the office should have just kept her ego in check, not run, and moved on. Most likely neither will accomplish much as POTUS.

We have to play with the hand that was dealt. If you say something about Johnson you're a retard.
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Trey Chambers
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Clinton should have released all the e-mails and her full health report 2 years ago.

However bad of a hit she would take, people would be over it by now. Look at all the crazy, repugnant things Trump has done months and weeks ago? They fade from the collective conscience really fast, no matter how bad.

Her lack of transparency is killing her as things leak out on a week to week basis. She should probably still just dump everything now, take a 5% hit in the polls, then depend on the debates to re-frame things. Only then can she truly claim Trump is the one being shady.
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rcbevco wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?
Some of us have been saying she is from the start, we just do not think she is as bad as Trump.


Exactly we are faced with two bad choices. The thing is DJT is demonstrably unfit to hold the office. HRC although capable of holding the office should have just kept her ego in check, not run, and moved on. Most likely neither will accomplish much as POTUS.

We have to play with the hand that was dealt. If you say something about Johnson you're a retard.


We have evidence of Hillary doing things that actually do make her unfit for office, and you all ignore it.
Trump is more of, well, he will just lose his mind and shoot nukes at everyone if they insult his hair, and that is what you all cling to.
Gawd.
 
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Shadrach wrote:
I think a portion of the narrowing is due to spin and questions asked. The horse race is king.

I think there's been somewhat of a lull in Trump's Trumpishness, while at the same time Clinton has been backbirnering a lot.

I dxpect the debates to be interesting.

I don't think calling out the horrible of Trump's supporters is bad. People do need to question exactly who they are climbing into bed with and which votes a candidate is actively seeking. It matters.


The "left wing" media wants a horse race and not a blow out. They've given Trump a pass on things other candidates would have been pilloried for.
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TheDashi wrote:
rcbevco wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?
Some of us have been saying she is from the start, we just do not think she is as bad as Trump.


Exactly we are faced with two bad choices. The thing is DJT is demonstrably unfit to hold the office. HRC although capable of holding the office should have just kept her ego in check, not run, and moved on. Most likely neither will accomplish much as POTUS.

We have to play with the hand that was dealt. If you say something about Johnson you're a retard.


We have evidence of Hillary doing things that actually do make her unfit for office, and you all ignore it.
Trump is more of, well, he will just lose his mind and shoot nukes at everyone if they insult his hair, and that is what you all cling to.
Gawd.


There are plenty of thing that DJT has done that prove he's "actually" unfit for office. So, what do we do now?
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Boaty McBoatface
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TheDashi wrote:
rcbevco wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?
Some of us have been saying she is from the start, we just do not think she is as bad as Trump.


Exactly we are faced with two bad choices. The thing is DJT is demonstrably unfit to hold the office. HRC although capable of holding the office should have just kept her ego in check, not run, and moved on. Most likely neither will accomplish much as POTUS.

We have to play with the hand that was dealt. If you say something about Johnson you're a retard.


We have evidence of Hillary doing things that actually do make her unfit for office, and you all ignore it.
Trump is more of, well, he will just lose his mind and shoot nukes at everyone if they insult his hair, and that is what you all cling to.
Gawd.
NO, we do not see how what Clinton did was any different form what her predecessors (or even Trump) has or would do.

Clinton hides shit Trump hides shit, Clinton take foreign money Trump take foreign money, Clinton lies, Trump lies.

 
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Mac Mcleod
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Fivethirtyeight said that the polls are transitioning from possible voters to actual likely voters as we near the elections. Republicans are more likely to actually vote.

Democrats need to get the vote out.

Also, trump is a really incredible liar. And for some reason he's not being called on it. He can literally say whatever he needs to say to get elected even if it makes no sense, directly contradicts what he said in the primaries, or is clearly a lie.

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rcbevco wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
rcbevco wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
TheDashi wrote:
Have you people that are baffled by the way the polls are closing considered that Hillary might be as bad as some people are telling you?
Some of us have been saying she is from the start, we just do not think she is as bad as Trump.


Exactly we are faced with two bad choices. The thing is DJT is demonstrably unfit to hold the office. HRC although capable of holding the office should have just kept her ego in check, not run, and moved on. Most likely neither will accomplish much as POTUS.

We have to play with the hand that was dealt. If you say something about Johnson you're a retard.


We have evidence of Hillary doing things that actually do make her unfit for office, and you all ignore it.
Trump is more of, well, he will just lose his mind and shoot nukes at everyone if they insult his hair, and that is what you all cling to.
Gawd.


There are plenty of thing that DJT has done that prove he's "actually" unfit for office. So, what do we do now?


Say they are both unfit and vote for whoever the fuck you want.
 
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TheDashi wrote:
So Hillary Clinton would not go after stricter gun control?
There is a difference between shoring up purchasing laws to weed out dangerous people and "grabbing all the guns". There are a group of hysterics who equate one with the other and disqualify themselves from intelligent conversation.
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maxo-texas wrote:
Fivethirtyeight said that the polls are transitioning from possible voters to actual likely voters as we near the elections. Republicans are more likely to actually vote.

Democrats need to get the vote out.



The American voters ability to vote against their own best interests continues to amaze me.
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