$18.00
GeekGold Bonus for All Supporters: 133.23

7,795 Supporters

$15 min for supporter badge & GeekGold bonus
49.1% of Goal | left

Support:

Recommend
2 
 Thumb up
 Hide
8 Posts

BoardGameGeek» Forums » Everything Else » Religion, Sex, and Politics

Subject: Poll: 13 Keys to the White House rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Crypt Keeper
United States
California
flag msg tools
None shall pass!
badge
'Tis but a scratch.
mbmbmbmbmb
I came across this Washington Post article wherein Professor Allan Lichtman (American University), using his "Keys to the White House" system predicts that Trump will narrowly defeat Clinton in November. Like many prognosticators this election, he points out that Trump is unlike any other candidate so, despite the fact that he has been correct the last 30 years, he isn't certain about his 2016 results. Still, it's an interesting system in that it completely ignores the polls.

LICHTMAN: "The Keys to the White House" is a historically based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.

The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose.


In other words, if eight or more of the Keys are "True", Hillary Clinton wins. Here then are the keys with Lichtman's answer and some blathering by me...


1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Lichtman: False They got crushed.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Lichtman: True [Here, I'd say False but who knows how much of a factor angry Sanders supporters become?]

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Lichtman: False [Obama can't run again.]

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Lichtman: False ["Significant" is defined as a third party that can get at least 5% of the popular vote. Lichtman feels that Gary Johnson will do just that. I, however, think that with no candidates of the Ross Perot or Ralph Nader caliber, the answer is True.]

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Lichtman: True [Republicans could argue the point but the truth is that, unlike 2008, this election has little to do with economic concerns.]

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Lichtman: True [Again, Republicans could argue the point and again, it doesn't matter.]

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Lichtman: False [This only considers the last four-year term so the Affordable Care Act is off the table although, even if it wasn't, I doubt many people are voting this year to show their support/disdain of Obamacare.]

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Lichtman: True [While I agree that it isn't the 60s, I've certainly seen a lot of protests/riots on TV lately so I don't know.]

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Lichtman: True [Another answer that Republicans could argue but all of Obama's scandals have been minor.]

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Lichtman: True [Yet another arguable one but, unlike LBJ or W, Obama has no foreign issue hung like an albatross around his neck.]

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Lichtman: False [Then again, unlike say Nixon and China, he doesn't have a major foreign feather in his cap.]

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman: False [Even her strongest supporters admit that Clinton has a charisma problem.]

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman: False [Love him or hate him, if Trump were a D&D character in a forest, the dryads would all be hitting on him.]

The final result with Lichtman's answers are 7-True and 6-False and thus Trump wins a narrow victory. As you've no doubt noticed, however, while some answers are indisputable (#3) most are, at the very least, debatable. So whatever your opinion of the Key System it, like the Drake Equation, is fun to toy around with and see what results you get. Here then is the Key System again in RSP poll form to see how RSP as a whole sees the election...

Poll: 13 Keys to the White House
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
0.0% 0
False
100.0% 12
Voters 12
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
66.7% 8
False
33.3% 4
Voters 12
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
8.3% 1
False
91.7% 11
Voters 12
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
41.7% 5
False
58.3% 7
Voters 12
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
91.7% 11
False
8.3% 1
Voters 12
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
66.7% 8
False
33.3% 4
Voters 12
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
41.7% 5
False
58.3% 7
Voters 12
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
25.0% 3
False
75.0% 9
Voters 12
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
75.0% 9
False
25.0% 3
Voters 12
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
75.0% 9
False
25.0% 3
Voters 12
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
16.7% 2
False
83.3% 10
Voters 12
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
0.0% 0
False
100.0% 12
Voters 12
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
True
25.0% 3
False
75.0% 9
Voters 12
Bonus: Do you think the "13 Keys System" is valid or full of crap?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Valid
7.1% 1
Full of Crap
28.6% 4
Somewhere in the Middle
64.3% 9
Voters 14
This poll is now closed.   15 answers
Poll created by Gialmere
Closes: Mon Nov 7, 2016 6:00 am


I should note that Lichtman is no fan of Trump. He states his opinion of The Donald very clearly in the article.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Chris
United States
Sandy Springs
Georgia
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
See I have to disagree with 5 and 6. Wall street is doing pretty good and the upper middle class and rich are doing good. But the poor, the working class and lower middle class are still suffering from the economy since 2008. Blue collar workers are out of jobs, rural areas are doing bad while people in the cities are doing ok. That's why there is such a large disconnect in this country right now. some people are doing fine while others are still dragging ass - and these are the people voting Trump. The question is, is it enough people?

And is enough people in swing states? Ohio and florida are the two biggest swing states - so whoever gets those two has the greatest chance of winning. Florida might go Trump, i have no idea about Ohio.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kelsey Rinella
United States
Rochester
New York
flag msg tools
This demonstration is not authorized and is in clear violation of Mall of America policy.
badge
Those who continue to demonstrate will be subject to arrest.
mbmb
A few quibbles: I wouldn't say House Democrats were crushed in 2014 relative to 2010; they went from 193 to 188. Also, I'd have called the assassination of Bin Laden a major success (though it was long enough ago that its impact has faded), and regard the ACA as a major change in national policy, but only barely. So a lot of these seem borderline to me, but a few are borderline a little differently in my eyes than yours, Gialmere.

But I find Trump so personally repellent that I have difficulty understanding his charisma, if he genuinely has any distinct from wealth.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert Wesley
Nepal
Aberdeen
Washington
flag msg tools
designer
mb
whistle #14--Allan Keyes
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Christopher Bird
Canada
Toronto
Ontario
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Yeah, this guy got stories written about him in 2012 too; I thought his model was bullshit then and I think it's bullshit now. It's mostly designed to justify itself after the fact because so much of it is qualitative rather than quantitative. The fact that so many of his model points are "significant" or "major" without qualifying how he defines them in context means that he can simply say afterwards that either those elements were or weren't significant enough to get the answer that "proves" his model right. (And it's worth noting that in 2000, he predicted Gore, who won the popular vote but not the election.)

Tack on the fact that he's also dealing with a small sample size (eight) and this is basically meaningless.
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Leo Zappa
United States
Aliquippa
Pennsylvania
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
...somebody better talk Mac off the ledge after he reads this thread...
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Boaty McBoatface
England
County of Essex
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I would say anyone who think Trump has oddles of charisma is a sycophantic of the worst kind. Trump is not Charismatic unless you buy his message, he is a loud mouth braggart with all the charm, grace, good will and humour of a kick in the nut sack (I.E. he is a fucking joke, as long as he is done to someone else).
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
David desJardins
United States
Burlingame
California
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Gialmere wrote:
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Lichtman: True [Republicans could argue the point but the truth is that, unlike 2008, this election has little to do with economic concerns.]


This election isn't about economic concerns?? If people really elect Donald Trump as President because they don't care about their pocketbook or their paychecks, then I guess they really do deserve what they get. It's taken 8 years to build up employment and a tight labor market to the point that wages are starting to increase. So, as soon as we have some success, people don't care about that any more??
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.