$18.00
GeekGold Bonus for All Supporters: 121.42

7,297 Supporters

$15 min for supporter badge & GeekGold bonus
46% of Goal | left

Support:

Ben Kyo
Japan
Suita
Osaka
flag msg tools
Forward 1, Forward 2, Forward 3... siege attack 5?
badge
Why for this life there's no man smart enough, life's too short for learning every trick and bluff.
mbmbmbmbmb
Coups are just variation from 3.5 for both sides, totalled.

I just finished a game in Turn 8, losing to Wargames, in which, as the USSR, I got to -25 in coup die rolls alone!

Two 1s on Iran in T1, and a 6 on Iraq in retaliation made for an interesting start. The trend continued for the rest of the game, punctuated by a turn of nuclear subs and 2 US ABMs.

Add to that some bad hands (mid war 9 OPs, 14 OPs), and below average war and realignment rolls (for -29, all told), and it was quite the train wreck.

Influence on the board at the end of the game: US 98 to USSR 67.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Dan Golder
United States
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
That is brutal. I have never tracked this particular statistic.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Ben Kyo
Japan
Suita
Osaka
flag msg tools
Forward 1, Forward 2, Forward 3... siege attack 5?
badge
Why for this life there's no man smart enough, life's too short for learning every trick and bluff.
mbmbmbmbmb
silenceisgolder wrote:
That is brutal. I have never tracked this particular statistic.

Yeah, I wouldn't normally, because I figure it'll just average out, but after that turn 1 I just had a feeling...

For my own reference:
USSR coup rolls:
1123(223)3133

US coup rolls:
6(5646)[3][5]

()=nuclear subs turn []=ABMT
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Ben Kyo
Japan
Suita
Osaka
flag msg tools
Forward 1, Forward 2, Forward 3... siege attack 5?
badge
Why for this life there's no man smart enough, life's too short for learning every trick and bluff.
mbmbmbmbmb
I'm no statistician, but a bit of Googling seems to have provided me with the tools for some analysis. Any corrections welcome.

18 die rolls, mean of 63.
Invert US rolls, so the total in this game was 38.

Variance of one die is 2.9166667, multiplied by 18 equals 52.5.
Standard deviance is the sq. root of 52.5, or approx. 7.2456884.

According to the probability calculator I used, the probability of getting at least 25 less than the mean is 0.0002677, or 1 in 3735.

2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Jim McNaughton
United Kingdom
Derby
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Benkyo wrote:
... or 1 in 3735.


So likely to happen at least once in even a short gaming career.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Ben Kyo
Japan
Suita
Osaka
flag msg tools
Forward 1, Forward 2, Forward 3... siege attack 5?
badge
Why for this life there's no man smart enough, life's too short for learning every trick and bluff.
mbmbmbmbmb
Maccyn wrote:
Benkyo wrote:
... or 1 in 3735.


So likely to happen at least once in even a short gaming career.

~1900 games is short gaming career? Wow. I find it hard to imagine topping 1000 before I die. I'm currently at around 50, playing about a game a month.

Anyway, that is a 1 in 3735 chance for 18 coups, rather than 1 in 3735 for the game. At this point on the probability curve, every extra deviation from the mean lowers the probability drastically. If there were some way to factor in the OP discrepancy, and the below average war, space, and realignment rolls, the game would be shown to be much more of an outlier. To illustrate, with 18 dice, just one more point further from the mean would make for 1 in 6305 odds, and two would be 1 in 10840.

However, the thread title is "What's the greatest difference in coup rolls you've had over the course of a game?" Sure, I posted a bunch of analysis of my own game, because I found it interesting to do so, but coups are easily comparable.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
King in Green
Japan
flag msg tools
mb
I sometimes wonder about how the measurement of random factors may influence future design decisions. For example if the luck-o-meter goes too far one side may gain a minor compensatory bonus on passing certain thresholds. Fo TS a favourable card might be added to the draw or a bonus power might be gained. Obviously adding these sorts of things to an established design like TS would likely be regarded as unecessary and athematic but if incorporated at an early stage they could be an interesting feature for apps which are inspired by board games.

In any case, I've had similar experiences but nothing that bad. After a while I think everyone realises that if you play enough games you'll probably have a nightmare like that somewhere along the line.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Ben Kyo
Japan
Suita
Osaka
flag msg tools
Forward 1, Forward 2, Forward 3... siege attack 5?
badge
Why for this life there's no man smart enough, life's too short for learning every trick and bluff.
mbmbmbmbmb
Paul, I think you know where I stand on this... I think the random elements of TS contribute greatly to its enduring and widespread appeal. Unlike Go or chess, you can, correctly or otherwise, write off a loss to bad luck and get back into another game.

I think obvious "compensation" can backfire badly in terms of how people perceive games like this. Better to rely on the old statistical probability, and hope it averages out in the long run... by which I mean over many games, as there may be no coming back from a 1/216 T1 disaster.

The problem of course is when people who aren't already sold on the game might write it off as a luck-fest, but whatever, their loss.

I actually enjoyed this train wreck of a game a great deal. I wanted to see how far it could go, and it didn't disappoint. I definitely need more practice at managing "un-salvageable" situations (I've yet to have a highly-improbable quagmire/bear trap run, which I believe you specialise in).
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.