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BoardGameGeek» Forums » Everything Else » Religion, Sex, and Politics

Subject: Something funny with 538 texas polls rss

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Mac Mcleod
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One A rated poll shows Trump at +4.
Another A rated poll shows Trump at +25

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/t...

As a result their overall model shows trump at +9%.

My friend who works for the democrats says he seriously thinks that Clinton will win Texas. I think he's in a blue bubble.

But I think Texas has been underpolled and is really a blindspot for both candidates. While I think trump is likely to win- I think no one has good information on what will happen. At least in publicly available polling.

I'm pretty sure that Trump isn't spending the money to privately poll Texas so he has no clue.

And now Clinton has chosen Texas as one of the states to expand her campaign into.

http://www.fortworthbusiness.com/news/confident-clinton-expa...

And I know she has money to poll texas privately.

In any case, I'm glad she's going for a big win instead of bunting.
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J
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There's really no way to know how Silver gets his numbers. He has a lot of "secret sauce" in the calculations and it's all proprietary.
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J.D. Hall
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Let's put it this way: if Trump loses Texas, it will be a YYYUUUUGGGEEE blow to the Republican Party. If Trump gets blown out in Texas -- which is not likely in the slightest -- then the Republican Party is a dead man walking.

But if I were a betting man, I'd put 10 large on Trump to win, and give up 2 points to Hillary.
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It really depends on how badly Trump craters. If Trump voters are all despondent and discouraged, and nothing else draws them to the polls, they could just stay home. The whole Presidential election is pretty disheartening from a GOP viewpoint.

That said, if I were Clinton and had money to spend in Texas, I'd spend it trying to flip a few House seats.
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10/₆
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I don't think Trump will lose Texas, but it might be close enough that I'll never hear the end of it from my aged family after Hillary wins next month.

Worth it.
 
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fightcitymayor
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Hillary winning (or even coming close to winning) Texas would simply galvanize conservative Texas Republicans in a way that they haven't been in years. It would basically ensure that Republicans got their shit together and never let a race become that close for as long as they live.

So Hillary supporters should probably be careful what they wish for. Something something kicking the hornets nest something.
 
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Shawn Fox
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maxo-texas wrote:
And now Clinton has chosen Texas as one of the states to expand her campaign into.

http://www.fortworthbusiness.com/news/confident-clinton-expa...


Most likely she is doing it just to put pressure on some House races and to court Latino voters for future elections. If the Democrats could just get the Latinos out to vote they would have a real chance to win in 2020 and by 2028 the state would lean Democrat.

Reaching out to Latinos while Trump is pushing them away from the Republican party makes a ton of sense for the Democrats as a long term investment. Once the Republicans lose Texas as a stronghold they won't be winning the presidency again without major changes.
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Mac Mcleod
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fightcitymayor wrote:
Hillary winning (or even coming close to winning) Texas would simply galvanize conservative Texas Republicans in a way that they haven't been in years. It would basically ensure that Republicans got their shit together and never let a race become that close for as long as they live.

So Hillary supporters should probably be careful what they wish for. Something something kicking the hornets nest something.


They are galvanized. Demographic trends here are against them.

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Greg Michealson
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/te...

I see 5 polls since September 1st and Trump with a 5.4 point lead on average.
 
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I saw an electoral map the other day and Texas was pink. I was shocked.
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Mac Mcleod
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mrspank wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/te...

I see 5 polls since September 1st and Trump with a 5.4 point lead on average.


If you look here, you see a quality ranking as well. I take "A" to be a fully scientific poll with sufficiently large sample size and "C-" to have significant problems.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/t...

So it's not just polls. A self selected poll on a web site isn't useful. A poll with too few people isn't "as" useful. Etc.

I don't think texas has many well executed polls.

On the other hand, the IPSOS and Survey USA are both "A" polls and have wildly different numbers.

And the "+25% Trump" result by IPSOS oct 7-13 looks very odd compared to all the other polls.
 
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maxo-texas wrote:
... A self selected poll on a web site isn't useful. ...

Also, not it's not a poll. It's a click contest.
 
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Clyde W
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Nate is on record as saying that he mixes national polls and state polls to calculate the odds for each state. So he's clearly interpolating the two types of polls here to get to the number he's getting as of today.

Nate Silver today wrote:
Another day, another traditionally Republican state that Donald Trump could shockingly manage to lose. Yesterday, I wrote about Utah, where Trump’s weakness with Mormon voters could throw the state to Hillary Clinton or to independent candidate Evan McMullin. Today, we turn to Texas, where two new polls show a tight race: A University of Houston poll has Trump up just 3 percentage points there, while SurveyMonkey puts Trump’s lead at 2 points.

Trump will probably win Texas. Earlier polls had shown a close-ish race there, but with a Trump lead in the high single digits. And as a hedge against the polls, our forecast still assigns a little bit of weight to our regression-based analysis, which is based on demographics and voting history. Thus, our model still has Trump ahead by 5 or 6 percentage points in Texas, and puts Clinton’s chances of an upset at 17 percent.

But to put that in perspective, Texas is closer than Pennsylvania right now (where Clinton leads by 7 to 8 points). And Clinton is more likely to win Texas than Trump is to win the election, at least according to the polls-only model, which puts Trump’s overall chances at 12 percent.

As in Utah, demographics play a role in Trump’s struggles in Texas. The state’s white population is well-educated, and includes some workers who have moved from other parts of the country to take advantage of the state’s burgeoning economy. (College-educated whites have turned away from Trump.) Texas also used to have its share of Republican-leaning Latinos — George W. Bush won almost half of the Latino vote there in 2004 — another group that Trump has turned off. Meanwhile, only 43 percent of Texas’ population consists of non-Hispanic whites, down from 52 percent in 2000. However, because 11 percent of Texas’ population consists of non-citizens — many of them recent immigrants from Mexico — its electorate is whiter than its population overall.

But Texas isn’t some sort of outlier. Instead, it typifies the national trend. Compared with Mitt Romney, Trump is underperforming more in red states than in purple states or blue states. And Trump’s vote has fallen off more in the South than in other parts of the country.
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Mac Mcleod
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Another difference is that the polls plus forecast trended towards the "nowcast" view this time instead of the other way around.

So the projections weren't accurate after so many trump problems. With a normal candidate, they probably would have been more on target.

I still find the +25 poll to be really odd. It's not true in houston for sure.
 
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Guido Van Horn
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I remember during the last election, channel one news election had Texas going to Obama. I think younger Texans are heavily liberal, it won't be too long before Texas is a solidly blue state, unless the GOP evolves.
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Mac Mcleod
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GuidoVanHorn wrote:
I remember during the last election, channel one news election had Texas going to Obama. I think younger Texans are heavily liberal, it won't be too long before Texas is a solidly blue state, unless the GOP evolves.


Texas has a lot of hispanics and their growth rate is faster. They are expected to have a majority in the near future. About a third want to be conservative but Trump did a lot of damage.
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