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BoardGameGeek» Forums » Everything Else » Religion, Sex, and Politics

Subject: Nate Silver sweating, covers his bases rss

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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-camp...

He presents 10 points. No significant single block of text to quote.
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J
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Which one do you think he gets?
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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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Last I looked, comparing Silver to RCP, Nevada was edging Trump.
 
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Josh
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So the winner again is the media with their well crafted horse race?
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J
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I don't think Trump is going to get Nevada. It's possible, but the early voting looks really bad for him right now.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blo...
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J
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I'm going to need to adjust my prediction in that other thread...
 
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It's really silly all of this hand wringing. Killary definitely has this and has had this from the start. I bet one of my trump supporting friends when the candidates were confirmed that killary would win. I'd be super shocked if trump even comes close. Sure he's closing the gap but barring killary being thrown in prison(which is a fairy tale), it ain't gonna happen.
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Mac Mcleod
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If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying thought.
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Josh
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maxo-texas wrote:
If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying.


The next Dem candidate will be a shoo in. They can't possibly have the baggage Clinton does, and the Rep candidates are following a trendline.
 
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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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maxo-texas wrote:
If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying.


The only pat to victory that Hillary had was for the media to make the repub more unlikable than her. They were more than up to the task.

Mattered not 1 whit who the repub was. They would have been Satan's spawn right now.

Trump was the only candidate who could win in that environment. He is the only one who would get down in the dirt with the media.

Everyone else would have tried to stay above the fray, and failed miserably to counter the mudslinging.

Sad that you can't see that.
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Josh
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Koldfoot wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying.


The only pat to victory that Hillary had was for the media to make the repub more unlikable than her. They were more than up to the task.

Mattered not 1 whit who the repub was. They would have been Satan's spawn right now.

Trump was the only candidate who could win in that environment. He is the only one who would get down in the dirt with the media.

Everyone else would have tried to stay above the fray, and failed miserably to counter the mudslinging.

Sad that you can't see that.


Trump's an angel, biased media bullies him. Sad.
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Koldfoot wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying.


The only pat to victory that Hillary had was for the media to make the repub more unlikable than her. They were more than up to the task.

Mattered not 1 whit who the repub was. They would have been Satan's spawn right now.

Trump was the only candidate who could win in that environment. He is the only one who would get down in the dirt with the media.

Everyone else would have tried to stay above the fray, and failed miserably to counter the mudslinging.

Sad that you can't see that.


Yes... Trump was completely likeable before the campaign started.

Oh, right 1979 onward proves that wrong.

Does driving around in a cab all the time, only listening to the diseased squirrels in your head, make these thoughts seem presentable to you?

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Richard Keiser

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Shadrach wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying.


The only pat to victory that Hillary had was for the media to make the repub more unlikable than her. They were more than up to the task.

Mattered not 1 whit who the repub was. They would have been Satan's spawn right now.

Trump was the only candidate who could win in that environment. He is the only one who would get down in the dirt with the media.

Everyone else would have tried to stay above the fray, and failed miserably to counter the mudslinging.

Sad that you can't see that.


Trump's an angel, biased media bullies him. Sad.


Typical, whiny cunt conservative... waaaaah, somebody else made me a loser!!!

 
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Shadrach wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying.


The next Dem candidate will be a shoo in. They can't possibly have the baggage Clinton does, and the Rep candidates are following a trendline.


All the National GOP has to do is track the downfall of the CA GOP after Prop 187 to see their future.
 
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Josh
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I *think* Clinton is doing well in NC early voting. The NYT article had more caveats than it did words but I think thst is what they were hedging at.
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Shadrach wrote:
I *think* Clinton is doing well in NC early voting. The NYT article had more caveats than it did words but I think thst is what they were hedging at.


There is a high Latino voter turnout in states like Florida and Nevada

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/high-lati...

That is also a good sign
 
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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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Kumitedad wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
I *think* Clinton is doing well in NC early voting. The NYT article had more caveats than it did words but I think thst is what they were hedging at.


There is a high Latino voter turnout in states like Florida and Nevada

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/high-lati...

That is also a good sign


Florida Hispanics historically trend republican.

I have not noted any polls on Hispanics since trump was leading among them in the republican primary.

I'm not nearly as certain as you are that Hispanics will not support Trump in significant numbers.

I do know this: if they were overwhelmingly for Clinton, that would be news. Ain't been much in the news.
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Koldfoot wrote:
Kumitedad wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
I *think* Clinton is doing well in NC early voting. The NYT article had more caveats than it did words but I think thst is what they were hedging at.


There is a high Latino voter turnout in states like Florida and Nevada

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/high-lati...

That is also a good sign


Florida Hispanics historically trend republican.

I have not noted any polls on Hispanics since trump was leading among them in the republican primary.

I'm not nearly as certain as you are that Hispanics will not support Trump in significant numbers.

I do know this: if they were overwhelmingly for Clinton, that would be news. Ain't been much in the news.


You mean like this poll taken two months after the convention where Clinton leads Trump by 48 points and trump only polls 17%

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/poll-clinton-trump-his...

Oh I forgot, Politico isn't a Trump approved website is it. Hence your ignorance
 
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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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Thank you for proving my point.

Despite the headline, that was not a head to head poll, nor even a who will you vote for question.

But there was something interesting in there. Obama had 70+ approval numbers, while Hillary had something closer to 50. Translating Obama support into Hillary support is not a solid assumption at all.

Keep looking.

Pollsters are happy to toss out trumps white male high school educated numbers. You know they have the same numbers for Hispanics somewhere. Why aren't they published?
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maxo-texas wrote:
If trump had put donor money into an election machine instead of into his own pocket, he might have won.

Considering how incompetent, sexist, racist, and ignorant a candidate Trump is, that's a horrifying.


Demonstrably matches the average white male, which is why he's even close.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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I was watching Bill Maher on HBO-Go on my new SAMSUNG J4 using METROPCS unlimited service (only $66 a month) at TACO CABANA tonight.

Martin Short, David Frum and former Gov. Jennifer Granholm were guests and it featured 20 minutes of the interview with Obama.

I had never seen Maher like he was tonight. There was noticeably less humor, smugness and snark. Maher's primary point was that seriously considers Trump a fascist danger to the country with Guiliani as head of the FBI and Christie as Attorney General and that.. oh... Maher's two main points were that he considers Trump a fascist danger to the country and that the people who were previously contained by the rule of law will now be in charge of the rule of law and....

Among Maher's points, of which there were several, he considers trump a genuine facistic risk to our form of government (no joke), that people previously constrained by the law will be in charge of the law (FBI, Guiliani, Christie), that religion notably played no part in this race (no "how does faith inform your decision", etc.), that Evangelicals showed massive hypocrisy when given 5 religious candidates to elect instead backed Trump-- except Mormons who will believe all kinds of fantastic things but couldn't buy that Trump was a good candidate, and how shocking the open collusion between Trump and the Russians were and no one on the republican side cared a bit.

There was more. It was good but damn, even Martin Short was deadly serious on the subject several times. And pretty insightful too (and now an american citizen as well).

I am anxious about the election. The point was made in the show that the media has a strong interest in making it look like the election is close. The logical part of my brain says Trump has no path to victory and is campaigning like he knows that. But the emotional side is pretty worried.

Hopefully after Trump fails this will fracture the republican party into separate rational and insane parts which can't separately field a candidate again in my lifetime.
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Koldfoot wrote:
Florida Hispanics historically trend republican.

That hasn't been true since 2004. The Hispanic demographics of Florida are changing, the traditionally Republican Cubans are shrinking in percentage of Hispanic population and they are also moving more Democratic. Trump has a very small lead among Cubans, nut only among Cubans, and they're down to a third of Florida's Hispanic population. He has little support from other Hispanics

Quote:
I have not noted any polls on Hispanics since trump was leading among them in the republican primary.

I'm not nearly as certain as you are that Hispanics will not support Trump in significant numbers.

I do know this: if they were overwhelmingly for Clinton, that would be news. Ain't been much in the news.

Maybe you just don't want to see it. Recent polls showing Clinton's dominance among Florida Hispanics are all over the place. Just a few examples:
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/11/clinton...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinto...
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-florida-hispani...
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/miami-dade-county-shows-gop-stru...
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Erik Henry
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"Nate Silver sweating, covers his bases"

I thought this thread was going to be about Nate Silver saying Biden has a shot at winning...
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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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Erik17 wrote:
"Nate Silver sweating, covers his bases"

I thought this thread was going to be about Nate Silver saying Biden has a shot at winning...


Biden announces today. He wins.
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David Dearlove
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Koldfoot wrote:
Erik17 wrote:
"Nate Silver sweating, covers his bases"

I thought this thread was going to be about Nate Silver saying Biden has a shot at winning...


Biden announces today. He wins.

When are the men in white coats coming to take you away?
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