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Subject: And We're Off! rss

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Steven Woodcock
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Loving the Black Friday...looks like the Trump Rally is doing quite well so far:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3969792/Black-Friday...
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Christopher Bird
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wait you mean Trump is somehow responsible for Black Friday existing

okeydoke then
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mightygodking wrote:
wait you mean Trump is somehow responsible for Black Friday existing

okeydoke then


Trump got elected for your sins.
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Steven Woodcock
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mightygodking wrote:
wait you mean Trump is somehow responsible for Black Friday existing

okeydoke then


Wha....?


Ferret
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Steven Woodcock
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Dispaminite wrote:
mightygodking wrote:
wait you mean Trump is somehow responsible for Black Friday existing

okeydoke then


Trump got elected for your sins.



And he is totally pissed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM13yXlW-Vs


Ferret
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Christopher Bird
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Ferretman wrote:
Wha....?


Ferret


I'm sorry, let me rephrase

suggesting that Donald Trump is somehow responsible for any economic activity incurred by Black Friday, a nationwide sales event which happens literally every year, is breathtakingly stupid
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casey r lowe
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excessive consumption = great america
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Dennis Mann
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single sentences wrote:
excessive consumption = great america


Well, since most of the factories have left America, we are pretty much as services and consumption economy? Would you like to rebut that?
 
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Dennis Mann
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mightygodking wrote:
Ferretman wrote:
Wha....?


Ferret


I'm sorry, let me rephrase

suggesting that Donald Trump is somehow responsible for any economic activity incurred by Black Friday, a nationwide sales event which happens literally every year, is breathtakingly stupid


And saying the election results have had absolutely no effect is incredibly stupid also.
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Chris
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Look, the health of the economy is because of the President when it is doing good and your guy is in office (or in this case President elect)or it is bad and the other guy is in office. But if it is bad and your guy is in office then magically it is "more complicated."

I'm just laying out the illogical of it all so people can play along at home.
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Steven Woodcock
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mightygodking wrote:
Ferretman wrote:
Wha....?


Ferret


I'm sorry, let me rephrase

suggesting that Donald Trump is somehow responsible for any economic activity incurred by Black Friday, a nationwide sales event which happens literally every year, is breathtakingly stupid


I tagged him for the Trump Rally, I didn't make him part and parcel of Black Friday. Possibly I could have put and "an" in there for those who needed it?

I'm curious however why you think that? Do you believe that every president's economic policies have been breathtakingly stupid with no particular impact? Or possibly it's your thesis that that there can be negative impacts possibly but no particular positive impacts?

I'm very curious about how one can opine that the president--a traditionally important position of power--can have no impact one way or the other on the economic engine?


Ferret


 
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utoption2 wrote:
single sentences wrote:
excessive consumption = great america


Well, since most of the factories have left America, we are pretty much as services and consumption economy? Would you like to rebut that?


Partly true. We have also become, a net exporter of energy (once again), natural resources, information technology and a finance hub. Moreover, the US still engages in significant manufacturing, some of which has recently returned to our shores.

It is certainly true that much of our manufacturing activity is now offshore and no small number of manufacturing jobs has disappeared due to automation advances.

utoption2 wrote:
mightygodking wrote:
Ferretman wrote:
Wha....?


Ferret


I'm sorry, let me rephrase

suggesting that Donald Trump is somehow responsible for any economic activity incurred by Black Friday, a nationwide sales event which happens literally every year, is breathtakingly stupid


And saying the election results have had absolutely no effect is incredibly stupid also.


Yes this occurred to me too. The DOW how bounced and at least part of this has been the election result (though it seems perhaps the finance sector is the leader here due to hopes that finance reg's will be weakened or gutted) and there may well be some increased consumer confidence though it's hard to tease out how much of that is actually due to Trumps perceived policy positions. However, given that the DOW has increased over 11,000 points in the last eight years and that unemployment has likewise returned from the sharp cliff of 2008, it's rather difficult for anyone with a straight face to argue current positives are somehow due to merely electing Trump.

galad2003 wrote:
Look, the health of the economy is because of the President when it is doing good and your guy is in office (or in this case President elect)or it is bad and the other guy is in office. But if it is bad and your guy is in office then magically it is "more complicated."

I'm just laying out the illogical of it all so people can play along at home.


You may want to reduce it to silly rhetoric and that's your business. Economies rise and fall and presidents rarely coincide with their party having complete control of the government for a full term let alone two.

The economy dramatically improved under Reagan from the Carter era and did so again under Clinton who achieved a budgetary surplus. The economy tanked into a recession in the waning days of Bush II and has limped back during Obamas term. None of these observed facts addresses causation from an analytical standpoint. Carter didn't cause OPEC to form. The effects of deregulation and trade liberalization begun under Reagan didn't bear fruit while he was actually in office. Clinton may be described as selling out the blue collar middle class by embracing Reagan era policies. Obama certainly allowed the Bush II tax cuts to remain despite two major wars.

Presidencies are intertwined across the years. Attributing current economic conditions solely with who sits in the White House currently is a fairly weak assumption, especially given how important Congress is to the economy as well.
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Christopher Bird
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Ferretman wrote:
I tagged him for the Trump Rally, I didn't make him part and parcel of Black Friday. Possibly I could have put and "an" in there for those who needed it?

I'm curious however why you think that? Do you believe that every president's economic policies have been breathtakingly stupid with no particular impact? Or possibly it's your thesis that that there can be negative impacts possibly but no particular positive impacts?

I'm very curious about how one can opine that the president--a traditionally important position of power--can have no impact one way or the other on the economic engine?


In the first place, the President can certainly impact the economic health of the country one way or the other, via enacting policies that can effect the economy via executive power. That having been said, Congress and the Fed are much more important re: the economic health of the country, with one controlling the federal budget and taxation/spending and the other controlling broad macroeconomic policy. Overall level of federal spending and the Fed's quarterly decisions about inflation and interest rates have way more to do with overall economic health than who the President is.

But let us pretend, for the moment, that the President is a serious determinating factor as to economic health. In that case, you should not be crediting Trump with anything, because Trump has literally not done anything. You should be crediting Obama, who actually is President right now. And, as it happens, in the last month something else significant has happened: the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its quarterly report showing that overall civilian worker compensation increased 2.3 percent over the previous twelve months. Given that inflation only increased about 1.3 percent over the same time period, this means that real wages over the year previous increased slightly.

More money in workers' pockets = better economy, because consumer spending increases and consumer debt shrinks. And if you want to credit a President for this, you would credit Obama, not Trump, as Trump has - and we will point this out again - done basically nothing other than get elected.

Now at this point you or Dennis might say something about consumer confidence, and sure, consumer confidence is not an unimportant thing, although it does have its limits to affect the economy because regardless of how confident you might be about the economy, it does not magically put more dollars in your wallet. And as it turns out, we have stats for how the election affected consumer confidence too:



Now, Republicans think "the economy is doing better" because Trump got elected, by a fairly dramatic factor. Democrats, comparatively, think that the economy is doing worse since Trump got elected. The net result is a slight uptick in economic confidence overall because more Republicans are happier than Democrats are pessimistic, but the important thing here is that both sides are just wrong: the economy has not gotten better or worse in the week following Trump's election, and certainly not in response to it, because macroeconomics doesn't work that way.

And any reference to Black Friday being part of a "Trump rally" is similarly stupid, because Black Friday is an annual sales event where consumer spending is much more tied to ability to spend than it is to consumer confidence.
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galad2003 wrote:
Look, the health of the economy is because of the President when it is doing good and your guy is in office (or in this case President elect)or it is bad and the other guy is in office. But if it is bad and your guy is in office then magically it is "more complicated."

I'm just laying out the illogical of it all so people can play along at home.


No you don't get it! You're forgetting that your guy is stupid and my guy is not.
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mightygodking wrote:
Now, Republicans think "the economy is doing better" because Trump got elected, by a fairly dramatic factor. Democrats, comparatively, think that the economy is doing worse since Trump got elected. The net result is a slight uptick in economic confidence overall because more Republicans are happier than Democrats are pessimistic, but the important thing here is that both sides are just wrong: the economy has not gotten better or worse in the week following Trump's election, and certainly not in response to it, because macroeconomics doesn't work that way.

However, the stock market does work that way: significantly on emotion, especially small investors.

Think about what Trump did: he injected uncertainty into the economies of the EU, China, Canada* and Mexico* (*NAFTA), at least. That makes those markets devalue, and money flow to safe havens--like the US stock market.

Also, since he's very pro-business, the US markets are safer, at least superficially, so money flows from other safe havens, like gold or bonds, into the stock market.

The S&P 500 is up 3.55% since election day while the S&P gold fund is down 6.66%. The gold bugs got stomped.

But, an ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold.
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Steven Woodcock
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mightygodking wrote:

(Much blather deleted)


While you whine about how "it's just not true", the fact is that at least some economists think it is:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/25/us-markets.html

Excerpt:

"The Trump honeymoon continues. The focus now shifts to Black Friday and holiday sales," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial."


So either the President has a definite impact on things especially in good times (which you admitted), or it has none at all (in which Obama gets zero credit whatsoever over the last 8 long, long, long years).

The hard fact is that the President does have an influence and in this case (at least so far) it appears to be quite positive. From what I see, the market sees a Trump rally and not much that Obama and Clinton got pasted.

But hey, it's RSP....I expect silliness from liberals rather than at least admitteding something positive.




Ferret
 
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Rusty McFisticuffs
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mightygodking wrote:
overall civilian worker compensation increased 2.3 percent over the previous twelve months. Given that inflation only increased about 1.3 percent over the same time period, this means that real wages over the year previous increased slightly.

More money in workers' pockets = better economy, because consumer spending increases and consumer debt shrinks.
Ferretman wrote:
But hey, it's RSP....I expect silliness from liberals rather than at least admitteding something positive.

?
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Robert Wesley
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Ferretman wrote:
Wha....?


Ferret
mightygodking wrote:
I'm sorry, let me rephrase

suggesting that Donald Trump is somehow responsible for any economic activity incurred by Black Friday, a nationwide sales event which happens literally every year, is breathtakingly stupid
s/gulp ~"HE..didn't 'exhale'?"
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Greg Michealson
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Ferretman wrote:
mightygodking wrote:
Ferretman wrote:
Wha....?


Ferret


I'm sorry, let me rephrase

suggesting that Donald Trump is somehow responsible for any economic activity incurred by Black Friday, a nationwide sales event which happens literally every year, is breathtakingly stupid


I tagged him for the Trump Rally, I didn't make him part and parcel of Black Friday. Possibly I could have put and "an" in there for those who needed it?

I'm curious however why you think that? Do you believe that every president's economic policies have been breathtakingly stupid with no particular impact? Or possibly it's your thesis that that there can be negative impacts possibly but no particular positive impacts?

I'm very curious about how one can opine that the president--a traditionally important position of power--can have no impact one way or the other on the economic engine?


Ferret




Then we agree that President Obama obviously helped this Black Friday's economic impact. Check.

Thanks Obama!
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Robert Wesley
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mightygodking wrote:
overall civilian worker compensation increased 2.3 percent over the previous twelve months. Given that inflation only increased about 1.3 percent over the same time period, this means that real wages over the year previous increased slightly.

More money in workers' pockets = better economy, because consumer spending increases and consumer debt shrinks.
Ferretman wrote:
But hey, it's RSP....I expect silliness from liberals rather than at least admitteding something positive.
kuhrusty wrote:

?
You're 'positively'...[fill in the blank] ergo: [_____]
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Greg Michealson
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Ferretman wrote:
mightygodking wrote:

(Much blather deleted)


While you whine about how "it's just not true", the fact is that at least some economists think it is:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/25/us-markets.html

Excerpt:

"The Trump honeymoon continues. The focus now shifts to Black Friday and holiday sales," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial."


So either the President has a definite impact on things especially in good times (which you admitted), or it has none at all (in which Obama gets zero credit whatsoever over the last 8 long, long, long years).

The hard fact is that the President does have an influence and in this case (at least so far) it appears to be quite positive. From what I see, the market sees a Trump rally and not much that Obama and Clinton got pasted.

But hey, it's RSP....I expect silliness from liberals rather than at least admitteding something positive.

Ferret


Dude, Trump winning the election didn't put more money in people's pockets for this Black Friday. I realize you absolute hate Obama, but don't you think his eight years of being President has more to do with this Black Friday than Trump's three weeks of not being President?!
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Daniel Edwards
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Ferretman wrote:
mightygodking wrote:

(Much blather deleted)


While you whine about how "it's just not true", the fact is that at least some economists think it is:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/25/us-markets.html

Excerpt:

"The Trump honeymoon continues. The focus now shifts to Black Friday and holiday sales," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial."


So either the President has a definite impact on things especially in good times (which you admitted), or it has none at all (in which Obama gets zero credit whatsoever over the last 8 long, long, long years).

The hard fact is that the President does have an influence and in this case (at least so far) it appears to be quite positive. From what I see, the market sees a Trump rally and not much that Obama and Clinton got pasted.

But hey, it's RSP....I expect silliness from liberals rather than at least admitteding something positive.




Ferret


Why does anyone bother engaging with this?
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Grand Admiral Thrawn
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kuhrusty wrote:
mightygodking wrote:
overall civilian worker compensation increased 2.3 percent over the previous twelve months. Given that inflation only increased about 1.3 percent over the same time period, this means that real wages over the year previous increased slightly.

More money in workers' pockets = better economy, because consumer spending increases and consumer debt shrinks.
Ferretman wrote:
But hey, it's RSP....I expect silliness from liberals rather than at least admitteding something positive.

?

Conservatives are becoming more and more disingenuous by the day around here.
 
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Greg Michealson
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myopia wrote:
Ferretman wrote:
mightygodking wrote:

(Much blather deleted)


While you whine about how "it's just not true", the fact is that at least some economists think it is:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/25/us-markets.html

Excerpt:

"The Trump honeymoon continues. The focus now shifts to Black Friday and holiday sales," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial."


So either the President has a definite impact on things especially in good times (which you admitted), or it has none at all (in which Obama gets zero credit whatsoever over the last 8 long, long, long years).

The hard fact is that the President does have an influence and in this case (at least so far) it appears to be quite positive. From what I see, the market sees a Trump rally and not much that Obama and Clinton got pasted.

But hey, it's RSP....I expect silliness from liberals rather than at least admitteding something positive.




Ferret


Why does anyone bother engaging with this?


I'm a masochist. That's why.
 
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