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Subject: Democrat or Republican? Which is really the "War Party?" rss

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Aric Ashgrove
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This question or its assumptions gets thrown around a lot, so I decided to commit to a labor in an effort to report simple and hard statistics, based off of history using as neutral of sources (though not great) as I can think of. I will post the presidential figures first, then the Senate and House of representatives (this will take much more time!). Enjoy, use, repost, and respond as much as you would like, but please give me credit for my hard work if you do. I would also like to improve on the correlation statistics in the most neutral method possible (not to be read; equality of outcome), so please post with those ideas!



Democrat Presidency Figures
40.53% years of Democrat presidency since 1789 (first president)
45.91% of wars since 1789 began under Democrat Presidency
41.4% of wars since 1789 ended under Democrat Presidency
58.51% of wars since 1789 involved a Democrat Presidency
49.20% years of Democrat presidency since 1829 (Democrat Party inception)
52.58% of wars since 1829 began under Democrat Presidency
47.43% of wars since 1829 ended under Democrat Presidency
67.01% of wars since 1829 involved a Democrat Presidency
41.29% years of Democrat presidency since 1861 (Republican Party inception)
35.28% of wars since 1861 began under Democrat Presidency
38.22% of wars since 1861 ended under Democrat Presidency
49.49% of wars since 1861 involved a Democrat Presidency
44.43% years of Democrat Presidency since 1981 (Reagan Presidency/ Modern)
35.7% of wars since 1981 began under Democrat Presidency
54.54% of wars since 1981 ended under Democrat Presidency
73.32% of wars since 1981 involved a Democrat Presidency
Jimmy Carter was involved with 1.8% of all US wars, with 0% started and .9% ended under him!
James Buchanan was involved with 14.4% of all US wars, with 9.9% started and 8.1% ended under him!
26.7% of wars ended under more Democratic Presidents than began under them.
46.7% of wars began under Democratic Presidents more than ended under them.
26.7% of wars began under Democratic Presidents equal to ones that ended.
93.4% of Democrat Presidents had at least one war started under them.

Republican Presidency Figures
38.76% years of US history under Republican presidency since 1789 (First president)
35.1% of wars since 1789 began under Republican Presidency
38.7% of wars since 1789 ended under Republican Presidency
51.31% of wars since 1789 involved a Republican Presidency
47.06% years of Republican presidency since 1829 (Democrat Party inception)
40.21% of wars since 1829 began under Republican Presidency
44.33% of wars since 1829 ended under Republican Presidency
58.77% of wars since 1829 involved a Republican Presidency
56.78% years of Republican residency since 1861 (Republican Party inception)
57.33% of wars since 1861 began under Republican Presidency
63.21% of wars since 1861 ended under Republican Presidency
83.79% of wars since 1861 involved a Republican Presidency
55.54% years of Republican residency since 1981 (Reagan Presidency/Modern)
64.26% of wars since 1981 began under Republican Presidency
54.54% of wars since 1981 ended under Republican Presidency (one began pre-Reagan)
73.32% of wars since 1981 involved a Republican Presidency
Chester Arthur was involved with 1.8% of all US wars, with 0% started and .9% ended under him!
Ulysses Grant was involved with 12.6% of all US wars, with 6.3% started and 9% ended under him!
50% of wars ended under more Republican Presidents than began under them.
27.8% of wars began under Republican Presidents more than ended under them.
22.2% of wars began under Republican Presidents equal to ones that ended.
61.2% of Republican Presidencies had at least one war started under them.


Sources for compiled information as of 11/26/16:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_at_w...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_Uni...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_Unit...
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Aric Ashgrove
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Reserved for House figures
 
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Aric Ashgrove
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Reserved for Senate figures
 
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Aric Ashgrove
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Reserved for raw data dump
 
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Stephen Rost
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Wrong. It's the Libertarian Party, or maybe even the Green Party.

How many wars have they stopped?
Exactly None.

They're the real threat to peace.
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Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
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Are we counting the Civil War as Democrat because Buchanan was still in office when the southern states started seceding?

Are we counting Vietnam as Republican or Democrat, because Dulles and Eisenhower propped up Diem for five years before Kennedy and Johnson took office?



Are we counting World War II as Democrat despite the fact that U.S. Republicans and British Conservatives laid the foundations by calling for disarmament, enforcing neutrality, ignoring aggression, and thinking that Hitler and the Japanese were just good anti-communists?

Who gets dinged for the various Indian Wars? Do they count? How about assorted military invasions of Central American and Caribbean countries?

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Aric Ashgrove
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Yes both parties for all three of your examples. I tried to be inclusive as possible in who was in office in wars, even without apparent involvement.

All Indian wars, occupations, uprisings, expeditions, etc, are included in the figures. The presidential observations are not the most telling of statistics but demonstrate something. The House will be the most revealing, since it is by their choice that war is supposed to begin.
 
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Robert Wesley
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How about 'Corporate Instigations' for these? Then, there's 'Media Influences' with fomenting 'reaction' unto yet others.
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Aric Ashgrove
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Corporations should be observable through all three of the parts of government I will be posting. Lobbying is much too difficult to pick apart on its own, and ALL wars are fought over economic incentive in my personal observations. Media is just a tool used by the middle men to promote agendas. Not the operator but the tool!
 
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Steven Woodcock
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Ashgrove wrote:
This question or its assumptions gets thrown around a lot, so I decided to commit to a labor in an effort to report simple and hard statistics, based off of history using as neutral of sources (though not great) as I can think of. I will post the presidential figures first, then the Senate and House of representatives (this will take much more time!). Enjoy, use, repost, and respond as much as you would like, but please give me credit for my hard work if you do. I would also like to improve on the correlation statistics in the most neutral method possible (not to be read; equality of outcome), so please post with those ideas!


Thank you...some very interesting analysis there!


Ferret


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Robert Wesley
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Ashgrove wrote:
Corporations should be observable through all three of the parts of government I will be posting. Lobbying is much too difficult to pick apart on its own, and ALL wars are fought over economic incentive in my personal observations. Media is just a tool used by the middle men to promote agendas. Not the operator but the tool!
shake What 'precisely' "explains" behind the "Spanish/American War" now, then?
 
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Aric Ashgrove
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I am no expert on that war (Spanish-American), but simply put: colonial expansion to further resource growth. Further feuding over the Philippines and the ownership of trade lanes across the Pacific. Corporations & banks have always had an interest in these kind of things and governments provide them with the army to appropriate them.
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Chris
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What's the point of this? Seems pointless for several reasons:

Going back further than 50 years is silly as neither party is the same now as it was then.
Some wars are better than others. Is anyone going to argue that joining WW2 was a bad thing? Or that we should have let the South secede so we should have not gone to war?
Are we counting Vietnam as a war? How about Grenada?
So if one party leaves a shit stew of affairs then another party takes over and the war starts with them, who is responsible?

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Mike Stiles
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galad2003 wrote:
What's the point of this? Seems pointless for several reasons:

Going back further than 50 years is silly as neither party is the same now as it was then.
Some wars are better than others. Is anyone going to argue that joining WW2 was a bad thing? Or that we should have let the South secede so we should have not gone to war?
Are we counting Vietnam as a war? How about Grenada?
So if one party leaves a shit stew of affairs then another party takes over and the war starts with them, who is responsible?



I've talked about this a lot, the pattern is arguably stronger in the last 50 years.

The GOP likes little wars that they think they can win quickly, the Dems like big idealogical wars regardless of the cost.

My count for recent wars this century:

S-A war: Republican
WW1: Democrat
WW2: Democrat
Korea: Democrat
Vietnam (actual fighting): Democrat
Grenada: Republican (I love the rediculous name too, "OPERATION URGENT FURY!")
Panama: Republican
Iraq 1: Republican
Bosnia: Democrat
Afghanistan: Republican
Iraq 2: Republican

~~~

Which again, is to my point. More important than how many wars (it's about tied), the nature of the wars they start are pretty different.

And yeah the nature of war changing is part of it, but Ike didn't get into any big wars himself, while he was sure bracketed by some humdingers.

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Aric Ashgrove
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These are simple observations based on the data I mined from those links and their subsidiaries.

If you pick a date especially noting what may be a specific change in policy or even a specific president or other event, I can post those figures with only a bit of number crunching.

The point of it is to be an observable set of statistics regarding the idea that one party is involved in more war than the other. The easily observable trend is that both parties have reduced the amount of wars that occur and their numbers today are much smaller today than they were, but close to even.

To argue that wars only matter 50 years back is absurd. Personally my ancestors would disagree fully, as would most American people's. Insert quote about forgetting history. Willfully ignoring shows motive or reveals one's premises or intent.

Notice also that I did not imply that a president caused any war, but that the wars were started under their presidency. Same for continuing or ending. I am not using the fallacy of correlation equals causation.
 
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Aric Ashgrove
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As far as this century lets not forget these wars with US involvement:

1896-1918 Yaqui
1899-1901 Boxer Rebellion
1899-1902 Phillipine-American
1899-1930 Moro Rebellion
1909 Crazy Snake Rebellion
1910-1919 Border
1912 Negro Rebellion
1912-1933 Occupation of Nicaragua
1914-1915 Bluff War
1916-1918 Sugar Intervention
1916-1934 Occupation of Haiti
1916-1924 Occupation of Dominion Republic
1917-1923 Russian Civil War
1923 Posey
1958 Lebanon Crisis
1961 Bay of Pigs
1964 Simba Rebellion
1965-1966 Occupation of Dominion Republic
1965-1983 Communist Insurgency in Thailand
1978 Shaba II
1982-1984 Lebanese Civil War
1987-1988 Tanker
1990-1991 Gulf
1992-1994 Somali Civil
1994-1995 Operation Uphold Democracy
1999 Kosavo
2004-current 2016 War in NW Pakistan
2011 Libyan Civil War
2014 -current 2016 Military intervention vs ISIL
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Frank F
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Please investigate a resource based economy.
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There will always be war in the context of a monetary system.
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casey r lowe
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LightRider wrote:
There will always be war in the context of a monetary system.

pretty sure we also had wars outside of the context of a monetary system
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Steve Fitt
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windsagio wrote:
galad2003 wrote:
What's the point of this? Seems pointless for several reasons:

Going back further than 50 years is silly as neither party is the same now as it was then.
Some wars are better than others. Is anyone going to argue that joining WW2 was a bad thing? Or that we should have let the South secede so we should have not gone to war?
Are we counting Vietnam as a war? How about Grenada?
So if one party leaves a shit stew of affairs then another party takes over and the war starts with them, who is responsible?



I've talked about this a lot, the pattern is arguably stronger in the last 50 years.

The GOP likes little wars that they think they can win quickly, the Dems like big idealogical wars regardless of the cost.

My count for recent wars this century:

S-A war: Republican
WW1: Democrat
WW2: Democrat
Korea: Democrat
Vietnam (actual fighting): Democrat
Grenada: Republican (I love the rediculous name too, "OPERATION URGENT FURY!")
Panama: Republican
Iraq 1: Republican
Bosnia: Democrat
Afghanistan: Republican
Iraq 2: Republican

~~~

Which again, is to my point. More important than how many wars (it's about tied), the nature of the wars they start are pretty different.

And yeah the nature of war changing is part of it, but Ike didn't get into any big wars himself, while he was sure bracketed by some humdingers.


Good thoughts, sir.

Another similar way to divide wars into categories is to divide them into avoidable and un-avoidable.

I'll just list XX & XXI Century's wars. {The Civil War [R] was un-avoidable.}

Avoidable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Un-avoidable
Spanish-American [R] . . . . . . . WWI [D]
Vietnam [D &/or R] . . . . . . . . . WWII [D]
Grenada [R] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Korea [D, fought to hold onto the mine with 90% of free world's Tungsten]
Panama [R] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Iraq I [R]
Afghanistan [R]
Iraq II [R]

Note: I mostly only count small interventions made by the US alone, this excludes Bosnia, etc. Although the Central American and Caribbean ones should also be listed.
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Steve Fitt
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galad2003 wrote:
What's the point of this? Seems pointless for several reasons:

Going back further than 50 years is silly as neither party is the same now as it was then.
Some wars are better than others. Is anyone going to argue that joining WW2 was a bad thing? Or that we should have let the South secede so we should have not gone to war?
Are we counting Vietnam as a war? How about Grenada?
So if one party leaves a shit stew of affairs then another party takes over and the war starts with them, who is responsible?


Yes, people here on BGG have argued for both those points of view. [I.e. we should have avoided fighting the Civil War and not joined WWII.]

See the current page of RSP and the Wargames page of BGG.

 
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Aric Ashgrove
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If a declared expert on both economics and each particular war would like to classify wars according to those categories without any political bias, I would in turn make new categories to add to the list of observations!
 
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Steve Fitt
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Ashgrove wrote:
If a declared expert on both economics and each particular war would like to classify wars according to those categories without any political bias, I would in turn make new categories to add to the list of observations!

Yes, I agree, there is plenty of room for bias to enter into the discussion once we start separating avoidable from un-avoidable.

Maybe some non-Americans would have less bias, even though they are not really experts.

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Aric Ashgrove
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I agree that perhaps there could be less bias by foreign countries. However I also would have to say to remove the other countries involved in the war. Also for every European country, we have an African, Asian, and Middle Eastern country's nationals opinions. It gets more and more complicated the more you attempt to remove bias. The US has nation built for so long it will be hard to find truly impartial foreign opinions...
 
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LightRider wrote:
There will always be war in the context of a monetary system.


Can you imagine the amount of wars that would occur if one group of humans tried to convert to a post-scarcity economy while scarcity still existed for others?
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Mike Stiles
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Terwox wrote:
LightRider wrote:
There will always be war in the context of a monetary system.


Can you imagine the amount of wars that would occur if one group of humans tried to convert to a post-scarcity economy while scarcity still existed for others?


You have all these people who don't have jobs now, and don't need jobs, so throw them in the military!

Ever wonder why starfleet was so big?
 
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