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Subject: CivStats: A Stats Overview of 58 Games of Advanced Civ-- rss

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Kevin Youells
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I paid 100 geek gold, and all I got was this lousy overtext
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Here are the results from the PrezCon tournament in February. It played out to be two five player games, one seven player, and two eight player games.

Game 1: Africa, Asia, Thrace, Crete, Iberia

Game 2: Thrace, Iberia, Asia, Africa, Crete

Game 3: Babylon, Illyria, Egypt, Assyria, Crete, Iberia, Africa, Thrace

Game 4: Illyria, Iberia, Assyria, Thrace, Egypt, Babylon, Africa

Game 5: Africa, Assyria, Thrace, Crete, Egypt, Iberia, Babylon, Illyria


Average order of finish:

1) Asia 2.50. Played twice, both in five player games

2) Thrace 3.00. Played in all five games.

3) Assyria 3.00. Played in two eight player games, one seven player game.

4) Illyria 3.67. Played twice in eight player games, one seven player game.

5) Iberia 3.75. Two five player games, one seven, and one eight.

6) Africa 3.80. Played in all five games.

7) Egypt 4.33. Played in the two eight player games, and one seven player.

8) Crete 4.50 Played in two eight player and two five player games.

9) Babylon 4.67. Played in the two eight and one seven player.
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LV
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^ Nice info, though on its own, the sample size of five games is quite limited. Still, every bit helps.

Kevin, do you have point totals for those tourney games? If so, I'll be able to fully roll them into the overall stats totals, along with the BGG ACiv Session reports (which I'm already in the process of doing).

If you don't, I suppose I could include these new tourney results only in the win percentage, placing, and civ popularity sections, but additional info is always appreciated.

Overall sample size for those sections will then be around 80 games or so (assuming I also include the BGG Session reports that only have win & placing info), and 70 games or so for the points total sections (assuming you don't have the points).

The sample size is starting to beef up a bit... lookin' good. cool

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Kevin Youells
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I paid 100 geek gold, and all I got was this lousy overtext
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As it turns out, I do. It's amazing what I find in my closet sometimes. I'll have to do some more digging and see if I can fin the 2007 results too.
By the way, these were timed games, ending after 7 hours. Obviously, not all of the games were played out to the end of the AST.

Game 1:
Thrace 4643, Iberia 4503, Asia 4367, Africa 4309, Crete 2830.

Game 2:
Africa 3805, Asia 3721, Thrace 3529, Crete 3397, Iberia 3185

Game 3:
Babylon 3322, Illyria 3194, Egypt 3163, Assyria 3066, Crete 2742, Iberia 2188, Africa 1889, Thrace 1409

Game 4:
Illyria 4659, Iberia 4337, Assyria 4057, Thrace 4055, Egypt 3627, Babylon 3229, Africa 2797

Game 5:
Africa 2890, Assyria 2859, Thrace 2590, Crete 2462, Egypt 2420, Iberia 2275, Babylon 2013, Illyria 1734


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Kevin Youells
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If I can get back into my old hard drive files, I have the 2007 WBC results as well. I'll post it if I can find it.
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LV
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Most awesome Kevin. Many thanks! thumbsup


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LV
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MBarratt wrote:
Given the low scoring of Europeans when all 4 are in play I wonder if it might even be worth considering taking Asia and competing with Assyria if the only alternative is taking a fourth European civilization.


I'm surprised no one had an opinion on this, other than Vidar.

Stats-wise, it's hard to say if picking Asia when Assyria's already in the game is worse than being the fourth Euro civ (other than Crete, who does fine regardless).

Why? Because so few ppl pick Asia when Assyria's already in the game... there's not enough sample size to draw many conclusions. Seems like people are TERRIFIED to make that pick. soblue

My own feeling? A lot of the time seems like in 8-player that the final pick is between Thrace and Asia, and ppl always go for Thrace, because a crowded Thrace can still pick up some city sites/land in Western Asia Minor before Assyria gets there, but Asia finds it hard to do the same in Thrace/Northern Greece before Illyria (or even Crete) gets there. The map set-up and AST movement tiebreaker works against them there.

But hey, that's me. I'm sure others have a different take.

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LV
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Btw, sorry I haven't updated the stats yet with the new games (tourney and BGG session reports). A LOT is going on. Give it a another couple of weeks or so.


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Jason Briggs
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this thread has been outstanding, and extremely interesting. I look forward to more statistics, and i think LV's work is a gift to the adciv community. i've always been partial to babylon, and that #1 win percentage spot is pretty reassuring and lines up with my own experience.

I was wondering, anybody interesting in starting an AdCiv PBEM?

also, playing the computer game gives some startling insights. The computer tends to do very well with africa and crete, and they seem to always end up near the top (egypt is often very high). That being said, the computer does not play like a human player, and should be remembered when making any observations. Additionally, the computer tends to beat on (especially in the form of secondary calamity damage) the player with the highest score, and doesn't seem to pay attention to hittings its neighbors or following up on vendettas (like a human player would).

but seriously, anybody up for a PBEM?
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LV
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davius666 wrote:
this thread has been outstanding, and extremely interesting. I look forward to more statistics, and i think LV's work is a gift to the adciv community.


Thank you very much. meeple

Quote:
also, playing the computer game gives some startling insights. The computer tends to do very well with africa and crete, and they seem to always end up near the top (egypt is often very high). That being said, the computer does not play like a human player, and should be remembered when making any observations.


Just to be clear, there were no computer/AI players in any of the games used to compile these stats.






.
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Jason Briggs
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two things, and they are just observations. One, I'm not sure crete always gets to benefit fromt he first civil war -- it doesn't seem true in practice, and maybe there are good theoretical explanations for this. one being that cities in stock also count as stock, and secondly because calamities will hit before stack 5 calamity civil war, and calamaties tend to dump a lot of tokens in stock (especially famine!).

Also, if anybody wants to start a PBEM, i would love to see this iberia player play iberia his way, and see how effective it is. I may be surprised!
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Joe Lux
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davius666 wrote:
two things, and they are just observations. One, I'm not sure crete always gets to benefit fromt he first civil war -- it doesn't seem true in practice, and maybe there are good theoretical explanations for this. one being that cities in stock also count as stock, and secondly because calamities will hit before stack 5 calamity civil war, and calamaties tend to dump a lot of tokens in stock (especially famine!).

Also, if anybody wants to start a PBEM, i would love to see this iberia player play iberia his way, and see how effective it is. I may be surprised!


I'm certainly up to playing Iberia PBEM, but I have never played PBEM. How does it work?
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Vidar Ambrosiani
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davius666 wrote:
two things, and they are just observations. One, I'm not sure crete always gets to benefit fromt he first civil war -- it doesn't seem true in practice, and maybe there are good theoretical explanations for this. one being that cities in stock also count as stock, and secondly because calamities will hit before stack 5 calamity civil war, and calamaties tend to dump a lot of tokens in stock (especially famine!).


I love playing Crete, but getting the first civil war is far from certain. Since CW is card 17 in the 4-pile, it won't hit until the third round of 4-cities (that is generally the same round as famine - card 19 in the 3-pile and not too unlikely for an epidemic to happen in the round before (at least Egypt and Babylon and often Assyria and perhaps someone else goes 2-6-8 cities which means at the first 4-city round 2-4 of the 12 6:s go and in the next round 7 or 8 6:s which means at least 25 % chance of first Epidemic before first civil War)

Also, it doesn't take much starving from Africa or Iberia/Italy to sneak above Crete in units in stock.

And finally, with CW as card 17, it's likely to hit one of the smaller players which means it doesn't give a lot of units.

/Vidar

PS: I've played Civ PBEM at www.redscape.com but I don't know how active the games are now. You need a very dedicated GM for it to work, and I've had several excellent ones there
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Mike Neal
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My favorite country is Assyria, with architecture... I can build 7+ landlocked cities and be immune to pirates...combine with coinage to make sure you buy a gold card every turn. Keeps the pirates active!

Hey Joe, thanks for the kind words! I just blundered on this site..

Mark Neale has his own Advanced Civ online game going...we've been playing well over a year. He has a fantastic virtual board and trading system. Also I've been playing lots of D+D RPGA with Joe Gunderson.

Give me a yell at lordgolem71@yahoo.com

-"National Champion" Mike Neal
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Bill Washburn

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I've added 15 more games to my Origins Civ Results. 6 each from 2005 and 2006 and 3 from 2008. www.zathras.com/Civ/AdvCiv.htm

Thanks for compiling the stats..

Bill
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LV
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Thanks Bill, I'll add 'em to the stats along with the other new games I'd been planning to.

But it may be awhile... I'm going on vacation tomorrow. meeple


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Kevin Youells
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I paid 100 geek gold, and all I got was this lousy overtext
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Wow, I wish that I could go on a vacation that long

Edit...nevermind, he hasn't been online since July. Wish I had spotted that before digging and posting the 2004 WBC results.
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Kevin Youells
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I paid 100 geek gold, and all I got was this lousy overtext
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I found the 2004 WBC results in my computer, so here's another group of games to add to the list if you wish.


ADVANCED CIVILIZATION TOURNAMENT RECORD

Thrace 3628 3628 100.000 4.571 4.921 104.921 1
Illyira 3092 3628 85.226 4.571 4.921 90.147 2
Crete 3049 3628 84.041 4.071 5.477 89.517 3
Babylon 2934 3628 80.871 4.500 5.000 85.871 4
Africa 2410 3628 66.428 4.000 5.556 71.983 5
Iberia 2310 3628 63.671 3.643 5.952 69.624 6
Assyria 2294 3628 63.230 3.929 5.634 68.865 7
Egypt 2240 3628 61.742 3.857 5.714 67.456 8


Africa 3762 3762 100.000 5.067 4.370 104.370 1
Crete 3501 3762 93.062 4.400 5.111 98.173 2
Thrace 3071 3762 81.632 4.667 4.814 86.447 3
Illyria 2913 3762 77.432 4.267 5.259 82.691 4
Iberia 2890 3762 76.821 4.733 4.741 81.562 5
Babylon 2711 3762 72.063 4.400 5.111 77.174 6
Assyria 2601 3762 69.139 4.400 5.111 74.250 7
Egypt 2234 3762 59.383 3.866 5.704 65.088 8

Egypt 3652 3652 100.000 4.857 4.603 104.603 1
Assyria 3621 3652 99.151 5.357 4.048 103.199 2
Babylon 3566 3652 97.645 5.286 4.127 101.772 3
Iberia 3289 3652 90.060 4.571 4.921 94.981 4
Africa 3310 3652 90.635 5.214 4.207 94.842 5
Thrace 3165 3652 86.665 4.643 4.841 91.506 6
Illyria 3093 3652 84.693 4.500 5.000 89.693 7


Africa 3635 3635 100.000 4.846 4.616 104.616 1
Babylon 2885 3635 79.367 4.923 4.530 83.897 2
Illyria 2740 3635 75.378 4.385 5.128 80.506 3
Iberia 2666 3635 73.343 4.538 4.958 78.300 4
Thrace 2546 3635 70.041 4.692 4.787 74.828 5
Egypt 2408 3635 66.245 4.308 5.213 71.458 6
Assyria 1805 3635 49.656 4.692 4.787 54.443 7


Babylon 4508 4508 100.000 5.563 3.819 103.819 1
Africa 4242 4508 94.099 4.938 4.513 98.613 2
Assyria 4245 4508 94.166 5.750 3.611 97.777 3
Crete 3999 4508 88.709 5.438 3.958 92.667 4
Egypt 3961 4508 87.866 5.250 4.167 92.033 5
Illyria 3273 4508 72.604 4.875 4.583 77.188 6


Babylon 4081 4081 100.000 5.563 3.819 103.819 1
Thrace 3763 4081 92.208 4.874 4.584 96.792 2
Egypt 3172 4081 77.726 4.687 4.792 82.518 3
Crete 3015 4081 73.879 4.375 5.139 79.018 4
Assyria 2378 4081 58.270 4.125 5.417 63.687 5
Iberia 2277 4081 55.795 4.000 5.556 61.351 6



Iberia 4280 4280 100.000 5.117 4.314 104.314 1
Africa 4155 4280 97.079 4.706 4.771 101.851 2
Babylon 3832 4280 89.533 5.235 4.183 93.716 3
Egypt 3774 4280 88.178 4.882 4.576 92.753 4
Crete 3709 4280 86.659 5.000 4.444 91.103 5
Illyria 3680 4280 85.981 5.059 4.379 90.360 6
Assyria 3411 4280 79.696 5.118 4.313 84.010 7
Thrace 3385 4280 79.089 4.765 4.706 83.794 8

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LV
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Kevin Youells wrote:
Wow, I wish that I could go on a vacation that long

Edit...nevermind, he hasn't been online since July. Wish I had spotted that before digging and posting the 2004 WBC results.

My apologies, Kevin. But since I compiled those ACiv stats, many things have changed– a death in the family, major investments to be made and managed, a family business to help run. Re-compiling and adding on to the stats would be a very time-consuming matter, especially to do them with the kind of quality and attention to detail I did previously.

I may someday return to the task, but even if I never do, I hope ppl appreciate the time that was put in thus far. It was considerable. Thanks.

...
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John Burns
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Excellent Thread, a few small points.

1) There is order of finish, but there is also order of draw. If you have the last pick, I wonder how many times Babylon and Egypt were 'leftover' for you to choose from. If you are an experienced player and you pick last, how many times do you get to choose between Crete and Africa, as the last draw? I would be interested which civ gets picked first most of the time.

1a) Also Humans like to spread out, and in your next game of Advanced Civilization, watch the order that Civ's are picked. Do people pick based on their 'experience, or because of the amount of percieved space around them. Is this the group subconscience at work? If Thrace and Illyria are picked one-two, am I grabbing Africa because I want more 'elbow room' or because I am an expeienced player?

2) About Iberia. I do like playing it from the aspect of defence, as you don't have another civ 'behind you' but it can be as hard to 'Go West' as it is for the Babylon player to 'Go East' in terms of expansion. This can cause problems mid game.

Anyway, if you guys are interested in contimuing this thread, those are my thoughts.
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