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10 Days in Europe» Forums » General

Subject: What's the odds on this happening? rss

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Jonathan Warren
United Kingdom
Wisbech
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After a couple of games of Pandemic (with the Virulent Strain challenge), I accepted a 'best out of 5' challenge from my daughter of 10 Days in Europe.

The first game was won by my daughter, second by her too. The third game I won. The fourth game was won by my daughter and so I had to accept defeat! However, she said "let's have another game", so we did.

I picked and placed 10 days in Europe straight off the bat! I asked her who should go first, to which she replied that I should, because of my humiliating defeat... I then simply told her that I had already got 10 days in Europe and revealed my cards. The game finished without anyone even getting a go!

What are the odds of that happening? This was indeed my shortest game ever!
 
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Rob Rob
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La Mesa
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Wow!
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Andrew Brown
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I have been as close as two tiles away after the initial draw on several occasions. Can't recall only needing one to win. Definitely not seen (40 games) an immediate win.

Grats.

Something tells me the odds on this are calculable, though I wouldn't wan't to tackle such a problem.
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Jonathan Warren
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GodfatherPTS wrote:
Something tells me the odds on this are calculable, though I wouldn't wan't to tackle such a problem.

A puzzle for you mathematicians?

The cards did not come out in a strict order (that would be simply unbelievable!). Although I can't remember the actual run of cards I do know that my first draw was Wales (placed at day 1). England did follow that draw (placed at day 2). I know that Belarus came out after (which I placed at day 10). Included in my run were an Atlantic Ocean, both Germany cards (which were split with France or Switzerland card) and a yellow plane (placed at day 9).

I was understandably amazed!
 
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Scot Ryder
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Silver Spring
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Whatever the odds, at least she didn't beat you 4-1...congrats on the crazy win!
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Leah Sugar
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Having played hundreds of games (I work for OTB and Demo at a lot of shows!). Ive seen this maybe 2 or 3 times, so it is pretty rare. I know that there are some players who require that you put the cards in the order they are picked, but I think the initial setup is part of the fun!
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Børge N
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JoffW wrote:
A puzzle for you mathematicians?

The graph is too irregular and the possibilities too many for this to be mathematically calculable. It could be approximated by a Monte Carlo simulation, but even that would be sketchy because of the heuristic needed in order to decide where to put the cards.
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Mikko Saari
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I know this is an old thread, but I suppose it would be possible to estimate the number of initial hands that can be winning hands if set in correct order.
 
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Børge N
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msaari wrote:
I know this is an old thread, but I suppose it would be possible to estimate the number of initial hands that can be winning hands if set in correct order.
Yes, that would actually be feasible, but how much does it really say about the game?

There are about 2.5 * 10^11 combinations for starting hands, too many for an exhaustive search. But by randomly selecting, say, 0.1% of them, and checking for existance of a Hamiltonian path in the subgraph, you should get a fairly good estimate of that. (Finding a Hamiltonian path is in general quite hard (being NP-complete), but the subgraph has only 10 vertices, so it should be doable.)

Any takers?
 
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