Seba J
Germany
Frankfurt
Hessen
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i hope this is the right forum...
played a mix of base set and intrigue the other night. coppersmith included.
got a 4-3 split on first two turns, went for coppersmith (cost 4) on 1st and silver (3) on 2nd.
big surprise when i drew my hand for turn 3: 4 copper and the c-smith. never bought a province this fast.
i just thought - how probable is this? 3-4 split in the beginning is common, but then drawing 4 copper and the smith...?
maybe someone reading this is good in maths and can calculonate the odds  ?
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5/6 chance of 3/4 opening
5/12 chance of turn 3 Coppersmith
7/11, 6/10, 5/9, 4/8 of the other four cards being copper
Multiplying these together gives ~3.7% probability.
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Seba J
Germany
Frankfurt
Hessen
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wow, that was fast. thanks!
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'The Completist'
United States
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salty53 wrote: 5/6 chance of 3/4 opening
5/12 chance of turn 3 Coppersmith
7/11, 6/10, 5/9, 4/8 of the other four cards being copper
Multiplying these together gives ~3.7% probability.
You're a very good driver. Time for Wapner. K-Mart sucks. 
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Morgan Dontanville
United States
Brooklyn
New York
Plate of Shrimp.
Here we are folks, the dream we all dream of.
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I'd buy gold.
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Seba J
Germany
Frankfurt
Hessen
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sisteray wrote: I'd buy gold.
well, thats another option, yes. some of my opponents said they'd never buy a point card this early, but i could not let this opportunity slip.
plus, with a deck still this thin, i think it's not impossible to get a csmith and 3 copper in one of the next turns --> gold.
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'The Completist'
United States
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I'd lose a game just to having bragging rights for a Turn 3 Province. Well done.
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Andrew Wilkins
United States
Michigan
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salty53 wrote: 5/6 chance of 3/4 opening
5/12 chance of turn 3 Coppersmith
7/11, 6/10, 5/9, 4/8 of the other four cards being copper
Multiplying these together gives ~3.7% probability.
If you opened Coppersmith/Silver, you actually have a slightly higher chance of buying a 3rd turn Province because you could draw the Silver as well so the probability would actually be...
5/6 chance of $4/$3 opening,
5/12 chance of turn 3 Coppersmith
8/11, 7/10, 6/9, 5/8 of the four other cards being copper or silver
...about a 7.4% probability of 3rd turn province.
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Seba J
Germany
Frankfurt
Hessen
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Hockey Mask wrote: I'd lose a game just to having bragging rights for a Turn 3 Province.
i did lose, by the way .
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Thomas Brendel
United States
Dunwoody
Georgia
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It would also be possible to hit the Province even with an Estate in your hand if your 3-buy was a Shanty Town or Wishing Well, since they both give you a conditional draw-two.
Hand: Copper, Copper, Copper, Estate, Shanty Town
Play Shanty Town: Draw Copper, Coppersmith
Hand: Copper, Copper, Estate, Coppersmith, Wishing Well
Play Wishing Well: Draw Copper, wish for Copper, reveal Copper
But I'm not good enough with probability to be able to say if either of those gives better odds than Silver. (I'm guessing WW might, ST probably doesn't.)
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Mark Judd
United States
Mapleton
Utah
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Clawf1ng3r wrote: sisteray wrote: I'd buy gold. well, thats another option, yes. some of my opponents said they'd never buy a point card this early, but i could not let this opportunity slip. plus, with a deck still this thin, i think it's not impossible to get a csmith and 3 copper in one of the next turns --> gold.
I think it depends a lot on how many players there are. In a 4+ player game, there are only 3 Provinces/player as opposed to 4 in 2-3 player games. Thus, it might be a good idea to jump on it when you can. With fewer players, you definitely want to go for the buying power first. IIRC, with good players a 2 player match (and similarly 3 players) usually lasts something like 16 rounds. That means you will probably end up reshuffling your deck about 6 times. If you had bought a Gold in the third turn, it would appear in your hand about 4-5 times. That's $3 more you could use each one of those times as opposed to $0 from the early Province. Each time you have $3-4 and that Province in your hand, you can remind yourself that you missed out on the opportunity of buying another Gold or Duchy. Each time you have $5-7 in a hand with that Province, you can remind yourself that its another missed Province.
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'The Completist'
United States
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Clawf1ng3r wrote: Hockey Mask wrote: I'd lose a game just to having bragging rights for a Turn 3 Province. i did lose, by the way .
But you're here bragging.  You win.
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Gwommy the Purple
United States
Portland
Michigan
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This makes me recall a thread that listed all the possible ways to get a Province on turn 3. http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/590464/dominion-riddle-1-sol...
Though, there seems to be a few more possibilities of getting a 3rd turn Province with the release of the newer expansions.
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Michael Brandt
United States
Colorado
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gwommy wrote:
You can even get a turn 2 Province with Hinterlands.
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michaeljb wrote: You can even get a turn 2 Province with Hinterlands.
Though you can't do it alone - it does require opponents' help.
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