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Subject: Massacre in the Village! rss

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Val K
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violintides wrote:
I also have another note to make.
Let's say someone claims Seer.

Our two Seers know each other, so there's no reason they won't immediately know the false claimant is lying. If someone claims Seer and even one or two people don't believe them, then we know where the real Seers are.

So here's my thought.
The wolves know each other and who the Mummy is, but not who their Sorcerer is. Traditionally, the Sorcerer claims Seer with a wolf hit on a Seer when they get a positive.

If we have a counter claimant against the Seer; I say we leave the Seer claimants alone entirely. There's 3 wolves who can't communicate their kills except across the thread. If both Seer claimants are left alive and one is Sorcerer and one is Seer; they won't know. They might all try to kill one or all try to kill both.
Either way, we'll get two good things:
One, some clears if a Seer dies before getting a wolf hit.
Two, Sorcerer death if they die and posts to skim for hints.
Three, if the Seer had a wolf hit and we lynch away from claimants AND hits, then we have an outed wolf.

Thoughts?
tl;dr:
Anyone claims Seer or counter claims it, WE LEAVE THEM ALONE. Force the wolves to sort it out. If we just keep Lynching into the pool of unknowns we'll eventually figure stuff out.

Obviously this is all just a loose plan and can shift and change depending on the situation... But given the circumstances I think we need a loose plan or guidelines for now.


 
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Alberto Saracco
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violintides wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
Ok. I'd say on D1 and D2 we need to lynch someone, in order to be' able to' analyze tallies and vote movement.
I think moving on the Prince is a bad idea.
Of course, if we have 2 Prince claimants, we should Lynch one of them.... Since one of them is evil.

No we shouldn't.
Because one will be killed in the night and we'll have an outed evil to lynch the next day. If we guess wrong and try to lynch the real Prince, we waste a lynch.
No.
Saraxsr you are so evil.


I am sorry you read me evil. I read you good.

I am just discussing how I think we should play. Discussion is good for the village.

I don't think the wolves Will fix this CC for us. The Prince is not a big problem for them. They can just kill him later on, or never and still win.

While the village, us good, to win, Will have to find out which of the two is evil and Lynch him, the sooner, the better.
 
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Valkerie32 wrote:
Shushnik wrote:

I still think the real prince calls bullshit in that case, because his role just isn't important enough to stay hidden. If Murph is a villager of some flavor claiming prince, he's doing the village a disservice when the real prince inputs. I doubt he is, I'm sure he would have thought that through even though he is Mr. BSC himself.

FWIW [for what it's worth] Murph isn't Mr BSC himself. There was Redhawk and before Red .. Bagpipe Dan(?) He's just in the same crazy belfry.

Also, as the guy who taught me that villagers can lie too, I am not willing to attempt putting conditions on him as far as what he is and isn't allowed to do with whatever role he has. Basically I like to watch him roll. This does not constitute a defense of him on my part. You should do what you think is best.


I'm not really putting conditions on him, per se, but I think he's experienced enough to know that a villager claiming prince is probably a terrible idea with this set. I doubt he would do it, thus my judgement that he isn't a villager claiming prince.

I didn't know bagpipe dan used to play. I haven't seen him in years, back when I used to do RSP a lot. I miss the wild west feel it used to have. It's not at all fun anymore.
 
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Alberto Saracco
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Well, good nite everybody.
Going to' sleep... snore
 
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George Buss
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Shushnik wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
Easter's been good with my two little ones. I've been able to follow posts but haven't found time to post myself.

Finally found a minute.

So I've been thinking about this game. I have a roleset Q:
Does the tough wolf know they are tough

I ask for two reasons.

There are two toughs - martyr and wolf.
There is also the prince who is immune to lynch.
So daytime, we've got three players that will trigger a no-kill, and brutal/NK we've got 2.

Murph has claimed Prince. I think he's legit since he's uncountered.
That said, the martyr should not try to protect him - we need those saves for our seers.



May I ask you why the Prince would ever want to claim his role?


So we don't waste a lynch? Early game, it's critical we wolf hunt. If we waste our lynch on the prince and the wolves kill 3 of us, we're in a bad way already. We gotta find us a wolf through deduction, and quickly.

That being said, it would be a nice claim for evil because if uncountered we would obviously avoid lynching that person. The trick is, if evil does claim it, the good prince has to counter. His role isn't important enough to stay hidden. The village avoiding killing the uncountered prince (evil) is far more costly than the real prince's (good) exposure. If murph is lying, I expect the real prince probably would have CC'd by now. It's possible that person isn't logging in on a holiday, but as time passes I believe the CC less and less.

tl;dr It would be predictable that evil wouldn't want to claim prince, because a prince doesn't have much reason to hide. Since he doesn't have much reason to hide, Murph claimed early, which isn't surprising.


Shush... you've got me thinking...

First, there are lots of reasons for Murph claiming. He wasn't even near lynch lead so the idea of him trying to save the village a mislynch is a stretch...

I think there are three reasons for Murph to claim:
1 He's the Prince, and sees no real value in the role, except to draw a nk and to give him an uncountered clear
2 He's a tough villager and wants to draw the nk
3 He's brutal wolf and he's setting up his claim now in case he is lynched

Maybe...
1db A vanillager wouldn't claim it because it might draw out the real Prince, but they might claim it if they want to draw a nk - I think Murph is a long enough player not to chance this if vanillager, though he is BSC.

Other roles would not claim Prince:
1 A regular wolf wouldn't claim it because it would expose them if the Prince countered
2 A Sorc wouldn't claim it because they want to save their claim for seer
3 A Seer wouldn't claim it because they don't want to be the nk target
4 A Hunter wouldn't claim it until he knew who he was going to brutal.
5 A Martyr wouldn't claim because they want to protect not directly draw a nk

So, in the end, we wait... Either Murph will die as a vanillager or Prince in a nk, we'll see only two kills tonight, or there is a strong possibility he is the tough wolf. If this is the case, then I would expect I expect a counterclaim, but not today.

All that said, the lack of counter does lead me to believe Murph's claim. Besides, I owe him a vote of confidence. But confidence today, can lead to something else depending on how things turn out later.

Regardless, he's not a lynch candidate for today.

Shush, you however appear to be calling for a counter. If Murph flips evil, I want to remember that.
 
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Val K
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Violin, I want to make sure you know that a non-committal response or silence does not indicate assent, so later if you try to go all Urza on us and bitch about how we all agreed to some plan you proposed when we didn't [or at least *I* didn't] I reserve the right to mentally smack you in the head and upper chest region.
kiss
 
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Mandiekinz
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Saraxsr wrote:
violintides wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
Ok. I'd say on D1 and D2 we need to lynch someone, in order to be' able to' analyze tallies and vote movement.
I think moving on the Prince is a bad idea.
Of course, if we have 2 Prince claimants, we should Lynch one of them.... Since one of them is evil.

No we shouldn't.
Because one will be killed in the night and we'll have an outed evil to lynch the next day. If we guess wrong and try to lynch the real Prince, we waste a lynch.
No.
Saraxsr you are so evil.


I am sorry you read me evil. I read you good.

I am just discussing how I think we should play. Discussion is good for the village.

I don't think the wolves Will fix this CC for us. The Prince is not a big problem for them. They can just kill him later on, or never and still win.

While the village, us good, to win, Will have to find out which of the two is evil and Lynch him, the sooner, the better.

The wolves will kill an outed special.
Period.
Unless one is a Mummy or Wolf.
It just means the Seers can view them and know of those people are wolf/not wolf. Easy sauce.
And, yes, of course you would think I am good if you're evil; because you know I am not your teammate.

My short evil list is Saraxsr, Valk, then quiet people.
 
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George Buss
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Valkerie32 wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
Valkerie32 wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
I have another question about first Lynch and Prince...

I agree that it's extremely important to Lynch one wolf very soon.
Now how do we do that? Are we planning not to' believe last minute claims?

What if we have an important role claiming? We lynch it cause it could be' a wolf? We lynch someone else randomly to save the claimed special? We lynch the Prince since a nolynch is better than a mislynch?

I think we should come up with a strategy well discussed prior to lynch chaos...
Well, what do you think about it?


I really don't know. First day lynch favours evil, since they have infos and we don't. Having a clear strategy has the upside of not having near Lynch chaos, ending in bad mislynch.
On the downside, a clear strategy helps wolves to find a better way to handle claims...


Wait! Wolves don't have a chat, am I rite? So probably they cannot coordinate as well as they do normally...

Will have to think what that means...

I think what it means is we get to be watchful for attempts to communicate that will hopefully bite them in the ass later on in the game. Does anyone have an inner Avin to channel?


I'm trying... but I can't get the bulldozer started.
 
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George Buss
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[unvote all]

There are enough quiet people - thanks to the holiday - that the votes feel funky...

I haven't seen Crudisi... does that mean we don't lynch till tuesday?
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (23/23) - # - Voted by

Saraxsr - 5 - shushnik(18), Violintides(21), Violintides(28), saraccog1(33), Dake(34), miraria(36)
thatfedoraguy - 3 - saberwolf13(6), Guenhwyvhar(10), nswoll(15), Dake(31), Saraxsr(32)
bluelise - 1 - Geniesse(2), thatfedoraguy(23)
saberwolf13 - 1 - shushnik(5), jamgar(7)
Guenhwyvhar - 1 - bluelise(8)
miraria - 1 - ZenMonkey11(1), dbmurph22(11)
nswoll - 1 - LudesFactor(16), Saraxsr(17)
Violintides - 1 - saraccog1(14), silverbonds(20), thatfedoraguy(22), ZenMonkey11(24)
dbmurph22 - 1 - Violintides(12), Violintides(27), Melriken(29)
Melriken - 1 - ZenMonkey11(30)
Dake - 1 - thatfedoraguy(3), Saraxsr(35)
Geniesse - 0 - Violintides(4)
bwt2q - 0 - Valkerie32(25)
ZenMonkey11 - 0 - Saraxsr(13), thatfedoraguy(26)
shushnik - 0 - LudesFactor(9), Dake(19)

Not Voting: bwt2q, Gregarius, marrk, tcrudisi, thatfedoraguy, Valkerie32


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.


Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

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INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

bluelise - 1 - Guenhwyvhar(8)
Dake - 3 - shushnik(19), thatfedoraguy(31), Saraxsr(34)
dbmurph22 - 1 - miraria(11)
Geniesse - 1 - bluelise(2)
Guenhwyvhar - 1 - thatfedoraguy(10)
jamgar - 1 - saberwolf13(7)
LudesFactor - 2 - shushnik(9), nswoll(16)
Melriken - 1 - dbmurph22(29)
miraria - 1 - Saraxsr(36)
nswoll - 1 - thatfedoraguy(15)
saberwolf13 - 1 - thatfedoraguy(6)
saraccog1 - 2 - Violintides(14), Saraxsr(33)
Saraxsr - 4 - ZenMonkey11(13), nswoll(17), thatfedoraguy(32), Dake(35)
shushnik - 2 - saberwolf13(5), Saraxsr(18)
silverbonds - 1 - Violintides(20)
thatfedoraguy - 4 - Dake(3), Violintides(22), bluelise(23), ZenMonkey11(26)
Valkerie32 - 1 - bwt2q(25)
Violintides - 5 - Geniesse(4), dbmurph22(12), Saraxsr(21), dbmurph22(27), Saraxsr(28)
ZenMonkey11 - 3 - miraria(1), Violintides(24), Melriken(30)

Not Voting: bwt2q, Gregarius, marrk, tcrudisi, thatfedoraguy, Valkerie32
 
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Ron
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ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
[unvote all]

There are enough quiet people - thanks to the holiday - that the votes feel funky...

I haven't seen Crudisi... does that mean we don't lynch till tuesday?


More important than tcrudisi ... Did I give the 24 hour warning? Nope.
Expect first lynch on Tuesday, with or without tcrudisi (but preferably with, of course).
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ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
stuff

Shush, you however appear to be calling for a counter. If Murph flips evil, I want to remember that.


Yes, I'm calling for a counter. I truly believe that if Murph is lying and the prince isn't counter claiming, they're doing us a disservice.

The prince's primary value is in a counter-claim. It's secondary value is in reducing the village's lynch pool. Both require an open claim. Murph has provided this, which is what I'd expect the prince to do. If he's not the prince, I'd expect the prince to counter. If he isn't the prince and the prince doesn't counter, I will meta them, because they're helping evil while on the good team and would thus deserve it.
 
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Val K
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violintides wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
violintides wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
Ok. I'd say on D1 and D2 we need to lynch someone, in order to be' able to' analyze tallies and vote movement.
I think moving on the Prince is a bad idea.
Of course, if we have 2 Prince claimants, we should Lynch one of them.... Since one of them is evil.

No we shouldn't.
Because one will be killed in the night and we'll have an outed evil to lynch the next day. If we guess wrong and try to lynch the real Prince, we waste a lynch.
No.
Saraxsr you are so evil.


I am sorry you read me evil. I read you good.

I am just discussing how I think we should play. Discussion is good for the village.

I don't think the wolves Will fix this CC for us. The Prince is not a big problem for them. They can just kill him later on, or never and still win.

While the village, us good, to win, Will have to find out which of the two is evil and Lynch him, the sooner, the better.

The wolves will kill an outed special.
Period.
Unless one is a Mummy or Wolf.
It just means the Seers can view them and know of those people are wolf/not wolf. Easy sauce.
And, yes, of course you would think I am good if you're evil; because you know I am not your teammate.

My short evil list is Saraxsr, Valk, then quiet people.

Sweetheart. Unless you are a wolf, you don't know what they are going to do. Period. End of line.
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Valkerie32 wrote:
violintides wrote:
My short evil list is Saraxsr, Valk, then quiet people.

Sweetheart. Unless you are a wolf, you don't know what they are going to do. Period. End of line.


Given this game setup, I'd guess the wolves will even be surprised at what the wolves do
 
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Mandiekinz
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Shushnik, I think you and Fedora both seem good to me.
Valk and Saraxsr are evil no doubt.
But if it turns out Saraxsr is good, then Valk is 100% evil (based on the conversation between him and Valk; because that felt either entirely staged and fake or one evil speaking to one good)...

Also if there are lurkers by tomorrow who haven't added anything then I want to either see them replaced or lynch them.
 
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Val K
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violintides wrote:
Shushnik, I think you and Fedora both seem good to me.
Valk and Saraxsr are evil no doubt.
But if it turns out Saraxsr is good, then Valk is 100% evil (based on the conversation between him and Valk; because that felt either entirely staged and fake or one evil speaking to one good)...

Also if there are lurkers by tomorrow who haven't added anything then I want to either see them replaced or lynch them.

I can't tell if this is FUD or just foolishness.. or if Snaak has a sister. The sound of you spinning your wheels is amusing tho.
kiss
 
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Valkerie32 wrote:
violintides wrote:
Shushnik, I think you and Fedora both seem good to me.
Valk and Saraxsr are evil no doubt.
But if it turns out Saraxsr is good, then Valk is 100% evil (based on the conversation between him and Valk; because that felt either entirely staged and fake or one evil speaking to one good)...

Also if there are lurkers by tomorrow who haven't added anything then I want to either see them replaced or lynch them.

I can't tell if this is FUD or just foolishness.. or if Snaak has a sister. The sound of you spinning your wheels is amusing tho.
kiss


Yeah, I can't help but think that this is a good violintides who is just reading too much into things that are happening on a weekend. It's day one and I completely understand how saraxsr appears evil, but I don't think proclamations that people are 100% evil are helpful at this point. I think it's important to keep pressuring people, but not to steamroll anyone.
 
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I would love a counter. That would create great value.

The Prince actually has little worth in this game beyond being a claimed role. It's existence actually helps evil since it further dilutes the tough pool. I laugh at the notion of this role getting night killed or exposed for such. It would only get killed so as to avoid say hitting the tough villager. But, there are many more roles more important. This Prince role is mere ounces ahead of a villager in importance here.

There is a lot of overthinking going on.

The Prince needs to claim when NOT up for lynch. This creates a better result for us in a role that has minimum benefit for our team.
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Please remember that Fedora is a little trigger happy at baseline...not just his campaign on me in 1500, but that was his behavior all game. He's acting mostly the same here though he is proclaiming some good more easily than I remember.
 
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They call me bonds, Silverbonds.
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So, 104 posts to catch up on. I was doing really well until I noticed the possibly evil italian brothers playing and now I'm officially changing my ice cream cone tattoo to gelato.
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George Buss
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dbmurph22 wrote:
Please remember that Fedora is a little trigger happy at baseline...not just his campaign on me in 1500, but that was his behavior all game. He's acting mostly the same here though he is proclaiming some good more easily than I remember.


ummm, thanks murph... I think...
 
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dbmurph22 wrote:
I would love a counter. That would create great value.

The Prince actually has little worth in this game beyond being a claimed role. It's existence actually helps evil since it further dilutes the tough pool. I laugh at the notion of this role getting night killed or exposed for such. It would only get killed so as to avoid say hitting the tough villager. But, there are many more roles more important. This Prince role is mere ounces ahead of a villager in importance here.

There is a lot of overthinking going on.

The Prince needs to claim when NOT up for lynch. This creates a better result for us in a role that has minimum benefit for our team.



I'M THE REAL PRINCE!


no I'm not lol
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saberwolf13 wrote:
dbmurph22 wrote:
I would love a counter. That would create great value.

The Prince actually has little worth in this game beyond being a claimed role. It's existence actually helps evil since it further dilutes the tough pool. I laugh at the notion of this role getting night killed or exposed for such. It would only get killed so as to avoid say hitting the tough villager. But, there are many more roles more important. This Prince role is mere ounces ahead of a villager in importance here.

There is a lot of overthinking going on.

The Prince needs to claim when NOT up for lynch. This creates a better result for us in a role that has minimum benefit for our team.



I'M THE REAL PRINCE!

no I'm not lol

This kind of post frustrates me. It gives you a nice easy denial for now and then you can point back to it as "proof" later. Let's please not do much more of this.
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[vote valk]

you've been posting, but you're not voting...

Why?
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VOTE TALLY

Player (23/23) - # - Voted by

Saraxsr - 5 - shushnik(18), Violintides(21), Violintides(28), saraccog1(33), Dake(34), miraria(36)
thatfedoraguy - 3 - saberwolf13(6), Guenhwyvhar(10), nswoll(15), Dake(31), Saraxsr(32)
bluelise - 1 - Geniesse(2), thatfedoraguy(23)
saberwolf13 - 1 - shushnik(5), jamgar(7)
Guenhwyvhar - 1 - bluelise(8)
miraria - 1 - ZenMonkey11(1), dbmurph22(11)
nswoll - 1 - LudesFactor(16), Saraxsr(17)
Violintides - 1 - saraccog1(14), silverbonds(20), thatfedoraguy(22), ZenMonkey11(24)
dbmurph22 - 1 - Violintides(12), Violintides(27), Melriken(29)
Melriken - 1 - ZenMonkey11(30)
Dake - 1 - thatfedoraguy(3), Saraxsr(35)
Valkerie32 - 1 - thatfedoraguy(37)
Geniesse - 0 - Violintides(4)
bwt2q - 0 - Valkerie32(25)
ZenMonkey11 - 0 - Saraxsr(13), thatfedoraguy(26)
shushnik - 0 - LudesFactor(9), Dake(19)

Not Voting: bwt2q, Gregarius, marrk, tcrudisi, Valkerie32


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.


Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 5:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 6:00 PM BGG
---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

bluelise - 1 - Guenhwyvhar(8)
Dake - 3 - shushnik(19), thatfedoraguy(31), Saraxsr(34)
dbmurph22 - 1 - miraria(11)
Geniesse - 1 - bluelise(2)
Guenhwyvhar - 1 - thatfedoraguy(10)
jamgar - 1 - saberwolf13(7)
LudesFactor - 2 - shushnik(9), nswoll(16)
Melriken - 1 - dbmurph22(29)
miraria - 1 - Saraxsr(36)
nswoll - 1 - thatfedoraguy(15)
saberwolf13 - 1 - thatfedoraguy(6)
saraccog1 - 2 - Violintides(14), Saraxsr(33)
Saraxsr - 4 - ZenMonkey11(13), nswoll(17), thatfedoraguy(32), Dake(35)
shushnik - 2 - saberwolf13(5), Saraxsr(18)
silverbonds - 1 - Violintides(20)
thatfedoraguy - 5 - Dake(3), Violintides(22), bluelise(23), ZenMonkey11(26), Valkerie32(37)
Valkerie32 - 1 - bwt2q(25)
Violintides - 5 - Geniesse(4), dbmurph22(12), Saraxsr(21), dbmurph22(27), Saraxsr(28)
ZenMonkey11 - 3 - miraria(1), Violintides(24), Melriken(30)

Not Voting: bwt2q, Gregarius, marrk, tcrudisi, Valkerie32
 
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