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Subject: Massacre in the Village! rss

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Brian
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ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
saberwolf13 wrote:
[vote fedora]

using a randomizer to avoid responsibility for your metavote is an evil tell in my books.
Even for a meta? I'm not evil, just feeling mischievous. Besides it's a long d1. Let's give people stuff to react to?

(Besides, you'll have to "update your book" after this game for exceptions)
I consider you to have voted for every player in that random... and as I learned in my first few games here people see voting a bunch D1 as an evil tell...

I don't agree with it, but I don't like random votes either (if you are going to Meta, then Meta... but the random feels silly).
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Brian
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ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
Finally, one more thought. There are 23 players. Last time I played a large game like this, I learned that the talkative folks tend to be good... maybe an evil or two to stir the pot and all, but as a whole, evil gains nothing by chatting it up...

So who hasn't posted yet? Let's throw a little interest their way.


[Vote ThatFedoraGuy] You have no idea how hard it is NOT to nightfall you right now.

Voting people for not posting over the weekend is NOT acceptable behavior.
Voting people for not posting over a HOLIDAY weekend...
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Murph
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On Day 1 no less...
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (23/23) - # - Voted by

Saraxsr - 5 - shushnik(18), Violintides(21), Violintides(28), saraccog1(33), Dake(34), miraria(36)
thatfedoraguy - 4 - saberwolf13(6), Guenhwyvhar(10), nswoll(15), Dake(31), Saraxsr(32), Melriken(38)
bluelise - 1 - Geniesse(2), thatfedoraguy(23)
saberwolf13 - 1 - shushnik(5), jamgar(7)
Guenhwyvhar - 1 - bluelise(8)
miraria - 1 - ZenMonkey11(1), dbmurph22(11)
nswoll - 1 - LudesFactor(16), Saraxsr(17)
Violintides - 1 - saraccog1(14), silverbonds(20), thatfedoraguy(22), ZenMonkey11(24)
Melriken - 1 - ZenMonkey11(30)
Dake - 1 - thatfedoraguy(3), Saraxsr(35)
Valkerie32 - 1 - thatfedoraguy(37)
Geniesse - 0 - Violintides(4)
dbmurph22 - 0 - Violintides(12), Violintides(27), Melriken(29)
bwt2q - 0 - Valkerie32(25)
ZenMonkey11 - 0 - Saraxsr(13), thatfedoraguy(26)
shushnik - 0 - LudesFactor(9), Dake(19)

Not Voting: bwt2q, Gregarius, marrk, tcrudisi, Valkerie32


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.


Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 5:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 6:00 PM BGG
---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

bluelise - 1 - Guenhwyvhar(8)
Dake - 3 - shushnik(19), thatfedoraguy(31), Saraxsr(34)
dbmurph22 - 1 - miraria(11)
Geniesse - 1 - bluelise(2)
Guenhwyvhar - 1 - thatfedoraguy(10)
jamgar - 1 - saberwolf13(7)
LudesFactor - 2 - shushnik(9), nswoll(16)
Melriken - 2 - dbmurph22(29), thatfedoraguy(38)
miraria - 1 - Saraxsr(36)
nswoll - 1 - thatfedoraguy(15)
saberwolf13 - 1 - thatfedoraguy(6)
saraccog1 - 2 - Violintides(14), Saraxsr(33)
Saraxsr - 4 - ZenMonkey11(13), nswoll(17), thatfedoraguy(32), Dake(35)
shushnik - 2 - saberwolf13(5), Saraxsr(18)
silverbonds - 1 - Violintides(20)
thatfedoraguy - 5 - Dake(3), Violintides(22), bluelise(23), ZenMonkey11(26), Valkerie32(37)
Valkerie32 - 1 - bwt2q(25)
Violintides - 5 - Geniesse(4), dbmurph22(12), Saraxsr(21), dbmurph22(27), Saraxsr(28)
ZenMonkey11 - 3 - miraria(1), Violintides(24), Melriken(30)

Not Voting: bwt2q, Gregarius, marrk, tcrudisi, Valkerie32
 
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Murph
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I need to get to some old business here. First let me address this post:

violintides wrote:
#1: I don't like people making serious decisions that affect the entire village without at least somewhat waiting to hear a response.


Well, I'm sure we'll vary in our definitions of "serious decisions". And I agree that it is in many cases prudent to come to collective decisions. That is the game after all. But we are all individual players with individual roles, and we play the game that way. This isn't a subcommittee in the House of Reps.

Quote:
If this is your true role, then you will be NK'D.


Night killed? Yeah, no.

Quote:
If this isn't your true role then what's the point in false claiming it? If you were about to be lynched I would maybe say something so we don't waste our lynch (we only have 3 mislynches before it's at must lynch. I did the math)...


The Prince role is much better at getting out the way early rather than pressed at lynch. Right now an evil role is unlikely to claim it because their ceiling of play is at its highest point (wouldn't settle for hiding in a pool of two). Therefore, the claimed Prince gets a near 100% good stamp. If there are two claims we just take the pool of two and lynch the shit out of it.

Near or after lynch a Prince claim could be the tough wolf - or the Prince. We're left with 50/50, not near 100%. A wolf would claim then since their ceiling is at their lowest (about to be lynched, they'd easily settle for a pool of two).

Quote:
But outright calling your role? Why? Also it's an easy role to hide in as evil.


What, how? There is only one Prince. I don't see how that's an easy role to hide in.

Quote:
After all, the evil people don't know your role and might try to snipe to save one of their own by trying to kill you instead. You survive the lynch and then we have outed evils for sniping saves.
It's a good role to keep quiet, in my mind.


I don't understand much of what you're saying here. But I strongly disagree this is a good role to keep quiet. There is no outright benefit for good. Comparatively, the tough villager on the other hand is an excellent role to keep quiet. That role needs to try to get target for NK to waste a NK.

Quote:
#2: Yes it's a crazy role. Personally, I hate the Mummy role even more than the Mimic. I dislike what we're up against but I also like a challenge. However the vote manipulations will be hard to follow since we won't see WHO changed their votes (according to the rules at least). Not sure on that.


It's not that the Mummy is just a crazy role, it can partially help us. Also I DO like what we're up against with it, because the onus is on evil to not let the byproduct of the role (vote changing record) to hurt them. Especially if we press it an maximize our advantage with the byproduct.

Quote:
#3: This, like much of your post, feels like forced content. Yeah. We know that. How are you helping at all? Captain Obvious to the rescue! Or is it Prince Obvious? Either way, I feel like your post and role claim stink of evil and I don't like it one bit.


Meh.
 
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Murph
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Shushnik wrote:
I'm pretty sure Fedora isn't evil.


At this point I'd have to mostly agree. But with caution.
 
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Murph
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Dake wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
Dake wrote:
i think sarax is evil for following me so fast.

[vote sarax]

you're not JUST italian, you're an evil italian.


And you, for following my brother so fast?

[vote dake], cause he can't always get free pass...


i do get a free pass alot... i'm just on a MASSIVE good streak. i can't remember my last evil role.


Dake is probably one of the ones that have posted who I find suspicious at this point.

Edit: grammar.
 
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Murph
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miraria wrote:
OK, I did what will probably be my only catch up read this weekend, I jsut saw 9 pages and knew I shouldn't save it to read at work tomorrow.

[vote sarax]

For the special hunting.



Can someone elaborate on this for me. The special hunting thing.
 
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Mandiekinz
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dbmurph22 wrote:
miraria wrote:
OK, I did what will probably be my only catch up read this weekend, I jsut saw 9 pages and knew I shouldn't save it to read at work tomorrow.

[vote sarax]

For the special hunting.



Can someone elaborate on this for me. The special hunting thing.


See my previous post.
violintides wrote:
#1: He has the most posts but doesn't seem to really say anything of help.

#2: He has been special hunting. Noted in these posts below:
Saraxsr wrote:
silverbonds wrote:
violintides wrote:
So let's have an all claim for shiggles!
I am a troublemaker IRL. Not that it has anything to do with my role. I miss my Mummy who lives in Alaska. I like seerup on my hats when I am forced to eat them. And I have never in my life preferred vanilla to chocolate.

Yay for meta FUD.


fun fact: Silver has one tattoo - an icecream cone. Since I'm brown, it's always chocolate. (unless we get fancy with the colored permanent markers.) Never vanilla!

[Vote Violin]

For pushing an all claim without pushing one.

Is that a special role soft claim?

Saraxsr wrote:
violintides wrote:
Saraxsr wrote:
silverbonds wrote:
violintides wrote:
So let's have an all claim for shiggles!
I am a troublemaker IRL. Not that it has anything to do with my role. I miss my Mummy who lives in Alaska. I like seerup on my hats when I am forced to eat them. And I have never in my life preferred vanilla to chocolate.

Yay for meta FUD.


fun fact: Silver has one tattoo - an icecream cone. Since I'm brown, it's always chocolate. (unless we get fancy with the colored permanent markers.) Never vanilla!

[Vote Violin]

For pushing an all claim without pushing one.


Is that a special role soft claim?

I like how you quoted her post to ask if it was a special role soft claim, and yet did not ask me the same question. I always feel like soft claims are bad when we're getting closer to lynch. Right now, it's D1, everything's metas and hints abounds -- so the fact that you're pushing to ask her this question makes me go, "Whaaaa? "

[vote Saraxsr] Grats on earning my vote in a non-meta way.


I didn't even notice you soft claimed troublemaker... ;-)


#3: He meta votes Zenmonkey and then starts defending him when he only has one (maybe two at most) votes...
Meta post:
Saraxsr wrote:
This is going to be fun!

I [vote zenmonkey] since he well deserve it.

Good game everyone.


Defensive post:
Saraxsr wrote:
ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
ZenMonkey11 wrote:
violintides wrote:
ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
violintides wrote:
ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
violintides wrote:
ThatFedoraGuy wrote:
I don't like that brought violin up to a tie on me...

shake

...You are awfully jumpy for D1 when there's no lynch until Monday (or is it Tuesday? Doesn't matter, my point still stands).

Talkative/not talkative is NO indicator about whether they are evil or not ON A WEEKEND. During the week, I may tend to agree with you, but for now, no. Just no.

Besides, there's nothing wrong with a tie between two people.


Hmmmm maybe a little defensive for others?

That makes you less wolf and more sorc in my book....

Now I'm gonna have to reread the roles.

And you are right, quiet on weekend does not an evil make, especially a holiday weekend, but... That doesn't mean evil can't hide in the quiet... S'all I'm saying... Evil hides, evil fuds... You're not hiding,violin.

Good does all of these things, too.

You're FUDing right now by having this conversation with me.


Hmmm, I'll take that as an acknowledgement that I am good...

I don't think i need to pressure you to get you to post... you're posting anyway...

[unvote all]

Yes, I do think you're good.
And, in fact, the only times I've ever had arguments like these with people is when we were both good (or I was evil and they were good). So, being that I know I am Good, I think you're Good.


I think I like both of you at the top. Reading you two was like watching a PING pong match.

[vote violin]


Thank you Zen... If you flip evil, you've cleared both of us...

if you are good, you need to look elsewhere...

[vote zen]


If you are good, you need to look elsewhere.... How can you know for sure violin is good?

Fedora, you aren't looking good to me...


#4: He has been throwing around FUD when shifting his vote every minute. He doesn't change votes because he likes someone's response... He's just vote hopping and hoping something sticks.

I rest my case.
 
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Murph
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Saraxsr wrote:
violintides wrote:
I rest my case.


If I was doing so, my vote would have stayed on Fedora, since when I moved off him he was the Lynch leader. Moving off him Made me the new lynch leader...


The "if you are good" stuff...

Blerg.

Hmmm, I'm not sure if I was able to tolerate that banter to understand even more. I understand a little bit more, but can someone step back and elaborate big picture how Sarax is "special hunting". And if he was by hinting himself, please explain why that is not good play.

I play the style that I think will best help my team win. I trust that others will play their role well and stay hidden. I don't realize that what I do will uncover other roles unless its a claim situation. The other players on my team can take care of themselves.
 
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Murph
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Saraxsr wrote:
May I ask you why the Prince would ever want to claim his role?


Hopefully I've answered this.
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Murph
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Saraxsr wrote:
Moreover he could claim when up for lynch.


Hopefully I've answered why this is worse than the Prince claiming right now.

Quote:
He's giving wolves a special target.


I am special. Too bad they won't target me. Too bad they won't target the Prince.
 
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Murph
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Shushnik wrote:
We gotta find us a wolf through deduction, and quickly.


This is very true. The early days are even more critical in this game. We can't hit any snags.

Quote:
That being said, it would be a nice claim for evil because if uncountered we would obviously avoid lynching that person. The trick is, if evil does claim it, the good prince has to counter.


You answered this here: "His role isn't important enough to stay hidden."

Quote:
If murph is lying, I expect the real prince probably would have CC'd by now.


I was hoping so.

Quote:
tl;dr It would be predictable that evil wouldn't want to claim prince, because a prince doesn't have much reason to hide. Since he doesn't have much reason to hide, Murph claimed early, which isn't surprising.


Affirmative.
 
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Murph
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ThatFedoraGuy wrote:

First, there are lots of reasons for Murph claiming. He wasn't even near lynch lead so the idea of him trying to save the village a mislynch is a stretch...


Or my own skin. Or someone else's skin.

Quote:
I think there are three reasons for Murph to claim:
1 He's the Prince, and sees no real value in the role, except to draw a nk and to give him an uncountered clear


Hard for the Prince to draw a NK when he isn't THAT important to kill.

Quote:
2 He's a tough villager and wants to draw the nk


See above

Quote:
3 He's brutal wolf and he's setting up his claim now in case he is lynched


I think you were meaning the tough wolf. But the real Prince easily counters and the evils are putting themselves in a 50/50 shot to go down on D1 in a game in which they get a kill for each of them. Bad play.

Quote:

Maybe...
1db A vanillager wouldn't claim it because it might draw out the real Prince, but they might claim it if they want to draw a nk - I think Murph is a long enough player not to chance this if vanillager, though he is BSC.


See above on the value of the real Prince

Quote:
Other roles would not claim Prince:
1 A regular wolf wouldn't claim it because it would expose them if the Prince countered


Not sure how this is different than the tough wolf.

Quote:
2 A Sorc wouldn't claim it because they want to save their claim for seer


I agree with this one!

Quote:
3 A Seer wouldn't claim it because they don't want to be the nk target


See above.

Quote:
4 A Hunter wouldn't claim it until he knew who he was going to brutal.


Maybe.

Quote:
5 A Martyr wouldn't claim because they want to protect not directly draw a nk


They are tough as well, so getting targeted would be helpful early. Wasting a NK and THEN protecting the Seer would be a great sequence for this role.

--Deleted some of Fedora's post here--

Quote:
Shush, you however appear to be calling for a counter. If Murph flips evil, I want to remember that.


Hooray for Shush!
 
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Murph
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I'm a little tired, now.
 
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Murph
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Well, I'm not too fond of this continuing into tomorrow so I'll just say now that I'm not really the Prince.

I strongly believe the Prince should reveal right now. Right away. I could have just asked for it instead of claiming it, but I wanted to generate some content - with no risk of exposure involved for the Prince since he should reveal anyway. If I was countered I would have simply backed off - like I am now - and explained myself.

Then I would have rejoiced because the Prince did the right thing and announced his presence.
 
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Murph
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So here's a summary of my argument.

Scenarios:

The Prince reveals now

Could this be by an evil role? Won't happen since the real Prince would easily counter and put evil in a 50/50 lynch situation. The Prince has no value except for a named role. Resisting lynch is no threat to evil.

Similarly if the real Prince reveals, evil won't false counter due to the above reasons.

Therefore: the Prince reveal is near 100% true.

The Prince reveals under lynch pressure

Beyond the possible fallout from last minute vote switching we may wonder if this claim is true because evil DOES have impetus to false claim here (survival when facing the noose). If there is no counter maybe the real Prince is not here? All those questions come up.

Evil does have more impetus to false counter in this situation. Sure they'd prefer a mislynch over a no lynch. But counters would be more easily believed, and the village may try to lynch the Prince again the next day. Evil could gain a couple of no lynches out of the deal and with multiple kills that can be a decent payoff by the third lynch.

Also, consider the scenario in which the real Prince reveals under lynch pressure. The vote moves quickly. Say it moves at this point to the tough wolf. Now the wolf definitely has impetus to counter (not just to false counter to gain no lynches, but to save themselves). Who do we believe? We could lose a lynch here.

A wolf reveals as the Prince reveals under lynch pressure

The wolf has impetus to do this - survival. The Prince would likely counter. But would they be around? That's not guaranteed. Also, the counter is more likely to be believed, but depending on the arguments the Prince could still get no lynched. This could have been spared by what I propose - an early reveal of a role that doesn't have much to lose or give.

----

1. The Prince has hardly any value.

2. An early reveal from the Prince nearly guarantees their ID.

3. A reveal from the Prince while under lynch pressure or to be kept for the purpose to counter a false claim while under lynch pressure creates a scenario that doesn't guaranteed their ID.

So I'm done with this mostly unless to discusse responses.

----

I'd like to move on to discussing this mummy thing.
 
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Murph
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linguistfromhell wrote:
Player (11/11) - # - Voted by

MadSpy - 5 - ChickenSedan(48), saberwolf13(49), jmilum(51), thatfedoraguy(52), seanp(53)
ChickenSedan - 4 - tcrudisi(38), RighteousFist(41), MadSpy(43), Apple Snapple(50)
saberwolf13 - 2 - ZenMonkey11(34), adiamant(46)


After announcing dusk and providing the Forced Tally Post, this is what the moderator will report:

Player (11/11) - # - Voted by
MadSpy - 7
ChickenSedan - 3
saberwolf13 - 1


Let's look at the example in the rules and assume we don't know who the mummy is or who the mummy's targets have been.

We basically see that this:
Quote:

Player (11/11) - # - Voted by
MadSpy - 5
ChickenSedan - 4
saberwolf13 - 2


Went to this:
Quote:

Player (11/11) - # - Voted by
MadSpy - 7
ChickenSedan - 3
saberwolf13 - 1


What does this tell us?

1) The Mummy is one of the MadSpy voters - ChickenSedan(48), saberwolf13(49), jmilum(51), thatfedoraguy(52), seanp(53).

2) One of these players (Chicken voters) is not a Werewolf - tcrudisi(38), RighteousFist(41), MadSpy(43), Apple Snapple(50)

3) One of these players (Saber voters) is not a Werewolf - ZenMonkey11(34), adiamant(46)

---

This is valuable information. The Mummy looks scary but can actually give us valuable info - especially if we fashion the final tallies to be optimal for this.
 
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Murph
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To maximize the Mummy's ability we need to make sure we minimize the chance that the Mummy is in a large block of votes and moves his votes from a large block. That means 3-5 large block of votes could be hurtful.

However 1 large block and big spread also give us the normal dangers for Werewolf (no info, and chances for the evils to affect lynch).

Balancing the two is important.

-----

Let's take the same example from the rules, but lets pull out one voter from each of the candidates and say they were elsewhere on a couple of other people.

Then let's run the scenario again:

linguistfromhell wrote:
Player (11/11) - # - Voted by

MadSpy - 4 - ChickenSedan(48), saberwolf13(49), jmilum(51), thatfedoraguy(52)
ChickenSedan - 3 - tcrudisi(38), MadSpy(43), Apple Snapple(50)
saberwolf13 - 2 - ZenMonkey11(34)


After announcing dusk and providing the Forced Tally Post, this is what the moderator will report:

Player (11/11) - # - Voted by
MadSpy - 6
ChickenSedan - 2
saberwolf13 - 0


Let's look at the example in the rules and assume we don't know who the mummy is or who the mummy's targets have been.

We basically see that this:

Quote:

Player (11/11) - # - Voted by
MadSpy - 4
ChickenSedan - 3
saberwolf13 - 1


Went to this:

Quote:

Player (11/11) - # - Voted by
MadSpy - 6
ChickenSedan - 2
saberwolf13 - 0


What does this tell us? Much of the same as I said before but the pools are smaller and the information is that much better.

1) The Mummy is one of the MadSpy voters - ChickenSedan(48), saberwolf13(49), jmilum(51), thatfedoraguy(52).

2) One of these players (Chicken voters) is not a Werewolf - tcrudisi(38), MadSpy(43), Apple Snapple(50)

3) ZenMonkey11(34) (Saber voter) is not a Werewolf.
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Murph
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Okay, I'm done for the night. Going to watch TV.

Enjoy the flood.
 
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Murph
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Epic Spell of Power (Double!)
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Mandiekinz
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DBmurph, I don't think you used the word 'impetus' enough there. You should edit and fix that.

Also, I had to look it up because I didn't know that word. laugh
 
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Really, there should be weekdays, weekends, and cuddle days.
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okay, a few thoughts:

I think that Valk and Shushnik are playing for Team Good.

I think that is easier for me to determine if Violin is evil in real life.

While I do agree that there isn't any reason for the Prince to remain hidden...

...I wonder what would've happened had someone counter-claimed prince before murph retracted his claim. Murph says he would've backed off of it, but I don't understand how he thinks that would've gone over, and I'd like for him to explain that portion a bit more.

Regarding the Mummy, I think murph is correct about what the voting blocks would hopefully look like tomorrow.

If the Troublemaker calls for a double-lynch, does that mean that the Mummy's powers are effectively used twice in one day? Because if so, we could attempt to trap the Mummy in one lynch, and get rid of him/her two hours later.

I think that Melriken is right--people not being around over this particular weekend isn't unusual at all. So I think we should get mad at people for being quiet tomorrow, and not today (which is still Sunday for me).
 
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Brian
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dbmurph22 wrote:
#2 The mummy is a cool role ability but we goods can actually use it to help our cause. It's the only vote manipulation power and by analyzing the before/after on tallies we can get a decent read on a) who the mummy is and b) who the mummy hypnotizes/non-wolves (since the mummy knows who the wolves are the mummy will likely only target goods (sans sorc)). To make this most effective it will take tricky vote manuevering to keep the vote getters with low totals low (keeping the vote sort of spread).
I have been running a lot of numbers here, and we only get about 2 shots at this. If we don't hit a wolf or mummy with our first 2 lynches we lose. D1 the Mummy isn't vote manip. D2 the mummy can vote with their D1 convert or even just with people they voted with D1 (or people who voted on someone their D1 is voting with...) and we won't find them D2, then D3 it becomes almost too late.
 
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violintides wrote:
I also have a side note to make.
If someone is seer viewed with a wolf hit on them, and they claim Villager saying "Oh I must be the Tinker", I say we lynch them anyway.
Tinkers mess with Seer views and it's an easy place for a wolf to hide.
SOP
 
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