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Subject: Blackwater Gulch Kickstarter Launched! rss

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So how do these stretch goals impact the backer? Let's say I pledge for $75 to get both sets plus 1 gamecraft set. At 6k does this mean I'd get 3 sets with the addition of The Bloodwolf tribe, and at 9k 4 sets with the addition of the Bandidos?

Just not sure how the stretch goals are working here. Thanks!
 
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Tim Kline

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You still get 2 sets total, you can just choose whichever 2 you want

thanks for pointing that out, I'll clarify it better on the page
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Odd T
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Been following your Kickstarter and must say WOW!!! It's going really well isn't it!

Just wanted to say that! laugh
 
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I know I said ruler-play wasn't for me, but if there were some option to pick up the 4 sets plus a few buildings, I'd think that would do really well. This is one of those on my "really tempted to try" list.
 
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Tim Kline

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Thanks

And, once I get up to around $8500 I'll add a new backing level for $120 for all 4 sets, and then I may add a few limited spaces for 4 sets & 4 buildings. I wanted to keep the building kits limited as a nice extra thing for the early adopters, and also because they are all made to order and I don't want GameCraft to be overly swamped and cause a lot of delays. As of right now I'll likely be getting something like 200 buildings.. haven't counted
 
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Tim Kline

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Quick update..

I recently added a FAQ listing at the bottom of the Kickstarter page with estimated shipping charges. Since there's so many different things offered and some of it can be bulky or heavy, I had to do some math and come up with a list that covers just about everyone everywhere.
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1763460781/blackwater-gu...

Next, I'm still waiting on more artwork. I should have the rest of the Bloodwolf Tribe soon, and the Bandidos next week. I just got a sample pic from Chessex for the Sheriff Dice, here's what they will look like



If the Kickstarter ended today, I'd be ordering 600 dice! But with 19 days to go and around $8400 raised so far, I'll probably be ordering a LOT more than that. Which is good, the more I order, the cheaper they cost to get made

I've been getting a lot of requests from people to add more spaces with the building kits. I do want to keep them as a special thing for the early backers, however I recently added a new backing level of $150 for 3 starter sets and 4 buildings. I did that last night around midnight, and they were sold out by the time I got up in the morning! But, some people at other backing levels moved into the new slot, so there's some other openings for now if you hurry

I'm pretty confident we're going to reach the next stretch goal. Once $9000 is reached I will be announcing some other new stretch goals that will include some nice new goodies, so stay tuned
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Adam Clark
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This game looks so freaking cool. It's one of the ones I'm really having to debate as I know if I get this I'm going to be spending a crap-ton getting back into painting and building models for this game.

What's worse, something tells me he won't have any trouble making the over-funding goals at the rate he's going:

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Tim Kline

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thanks

For me it's the painting that's the most fun. I like to play the game, but in the end I'm all about painting army men

I'd be thrilled if I could reach anywhere near that projected amount... and where did find that? I've never seen anything like that in my Kickstarter dashboard, it will just show me a line graph of how much was pledged to date.
 
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Damian
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Going by the image, it's on something called Kicktraq. Oddly, the site has no front end but if you change the link from kickstarter to kicktraq you get it.
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Matthew Rodgers
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I wish they explained there methodology a little better (/at all). According to the site, my project is projected to hit 95%... I wonder what the margin of error is?
 
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Tim Kline

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Cool, I'll have to remember that. Looks like its not up to the minute updates, so they probably just copy data from Kickstarter pages and then do their projections.
 
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Adam Clark
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damiangerous wrote:
Going by the image, it's on something called Kicktraq. Oddly, the site has no front end but if you change the link from kickstarter to kicktraq you get it.


Yeah, it's a work in progress, it's sort of a mess right now. Sorry! Something I've been working on and just got the new charting and updated extension for Firefox done this weekend.

Once the extension gets approved I'll have the homepage and search features wrapped-up.

Thanks for the feedback though!

zedturtle wrote:
I wish they explained there methodology a little better (/at all). According to the site, my project is projected to hit 95%... I wonder what the margin of error is?


It's still all fluid right now. Trying to nail down my secret sauce a little bit better based on trending over a variety of projects. I try to do my best to not over-inflate the projects so I have a spin-down of the projection as the end of the project approaches.

It's not really that complex, I assure you. Basically, what I'm doing is checking a project and based on the estimated start date of the project and taking the current pledge level, breaking it down into a daily amount, projecting that daily amount onto the remainder of the project, then within a certain range applying a ramp estimation based on most projects having a slight bump at the end of their campaign and weaning that off towards the end of the project.

Clear as mud, eh?

In terms of margin of error, that's impossible to calculate as pledges are unpredictable. The chart is updated every hour based on the current pledge level, and that's about the best I can do.

For example, your project is at $835 as of this post. That's about $57 per day so far accounting for some rounding. You have about 17 days, 10 hours, 42 minutes left in your campaign, and I guessed your campaign was about 30 days long total, so I take the daily amount and project it over 30 days, add my ramp, and get the $1781.

Again, the ramp is still a work in progress as it's only based on about 3 dozen projects I've used to build the tail-end trend, but it always works in favor of the project. I'm still debating on if I want to even use the ramping method as it's really subjective and doesn't work with every project, but I didn't want to under-estimate and give someone the wrong impression if a project is close when the tail end was likely to push it over.

But again, it's all guesses as you could get a $100 pledge and it would totally change everything and the projection would go way above your goal.

"Yes, yes, yes, yes, and what if the core is made of cheese? This is all best guess commander. That's all science is, is best guess." - Dr. Conrad Zimsky, The Core (don't judge!)



Necros wrote:
Cool, I'll have to remember that. Looks like its not up to the minute updates, so they probably just copy data from Kickstarter pages and then do their projections.


You're exactly right. As to not abuse kickstarter, I only check the projects once an hour on the hour. It's not really meant to be a real-time tool, more of a "where is the project headed" to work in conjunction with the add-on.
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Tim Kline

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Oh cool, didn't know you made that .. pretty handy tool though, so thanks

I guess you're a web programmer type? I've been trying to find someone who can help me make an online gang builder app for my website, but I don't know where to begin. I can do modern HTML & CSS and paste in javascripts that other people make, but that's about it.
 
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Matthew Rodgers
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pyrowolf wrote:

It's not really that complex, I assure you. Basically, what I'm doing is checking a project and based on the estimated start date of the project and taking the current pledge level, breaking it down into a daily amount, projecting that daily amount onto the remainder of the project, then within a certain range applying a ramp estimation based on most projects having a slight bump at the end of their campaign and weaning that off towards the end of the project.

Clear as mud, eh?


Thanks so much for the explanation. Sounds like a fairly valid methodology... I'm sure estimating the ramp effect is one of the hardest parts, but as more data comes in I'm sure there's a range to it will fall into.

I wondered if there was a way to calculate expected pledge level (from rewards available, weighted by how many backers have selected that reward {is that public knowledge, I know I can see mine?}) and calculate a standard deviation between your daily average and EPL to determine a margin of error...
 
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Adam Clark
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Necros wrote:
Oh cool, didn't know you made that .. pretty handy tool though, so thanks


You're quite welcome! I'll be honest and say I'm a numbers guy and a Kickstarter junkie (www.kickstarter.com/profile/pyrowolf) and just wanted a better tool for myself to look at boardgame projects and just see how they was going. I got tired of doing it all by hand, so I built an app to generate the data first, then decided to make it spit out charts, then wrote a firefox extension to insert the charts in the kickstarter pages automatically, then figured "what the heck" and moved it all onto it's own site and stated cleaning it up and trying to make it presentable.

Now I've got a few people testing and it's setup so new campaigns get added automatically when a project page is requested, all kinds of non-game projects running so it's fascinating to see how it will play out. I'm still learning a lot myself.

I just got the basic site down this past weekend but I've been using the charts for weeks for myself and a couple friends who were helping me test and find bugs.

Necros wrote:

I guess you're a web programmer type? I've been trying to find someone who can help me make an online gang builder app for my website, but I don't know where to begin. I can do modern HTML & CSS and paste in javascripts that other people make, but that's about it.


Yeah, you could kind of say that. It's fun for me, as crazy as that sounds.

Give it a shot! I think the best way to learn is to have a project you care about, then you have a motivation to actually complete it. There are tons of resources online for just about any language you can imagine. With the advent of more robust libraries, javascript is much easier to grasp and utilize even for apps like your gang builder which can even cut out the need for a server-side programming language to build your app. Go take a look at jQuery, you may be surprised what you could throw together!

 
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Adam Clark
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zedturtle wrote:

Thanks so much for the explanation. Sounds like a fairly valid methodology... I'm sure estimating the ramp effect is one of the hardest parts, but as more data comes in I'm sure there's a range to it will fall into.

I wondered if there was a way to calculate expected pledge level (from rewards available, weighted by how many backers have selected that reward {is that public knowledge, I know I can see mine?}) and calculate a standard deviation between your daily average and EPL to determine a margin of error...


(apologies, I edited my post to include some additional detail prior to your reply I think)

I am not able to specifically see when and how pledges are made and by whom, although I considered a similar method to what you've suggested at first until I went down that road to figure out how. When it came down to it, it would again be totally based on wild guesses and it could present a challenge if a variety of factors changed between hours. Also, the only way to even begin to track that would be to somehow store all the backer information along side the various # of backers at each pledge level and I never want to ever store user information. I know I wouldn't like someone correlating my public profile information, when I pledged, and guessing how much I spent to pledge on a game. Second, to track pledge levels would require a whole different system of guessing which persons pledge at what level each hour based on the changes in each pledge level. This sounds great until you have situations where you have new backers AND a user changes their pledge level, or the project keeps adding more levels (ala Gunship), or both - it would be a nightmare to even put that together for no obvious tangible benefit other than putting pledges to names.

I think this is what you meant, I hope I covered at least what I considered major challenges to this approach. Let me know if you have something else in mind.

p.s. I'm in for 2 copies
 
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Tim Kline

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I've been messing with jQuerry here and there, mostly just taking something someone else made as a little app and adapting it, then getting frustrated because it's 3 year old code that doesn't work with the latest version or just doesn't work how I want it to

For my gang builder, I think it would be a pretty big app though, like I'd want people to sign up so they can save their gangs online, upload photos that can get added to the rosters, and then have it spit out a PDF for them to print out.. and then people can share their gangs online, set up leaderboards, campaigns, leagues, tournaments, whatever I'll probably have to hire someone to build all that back end stuff.. guess I know what I'll be spending some of the kickstarter funds on...
 
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Matthew Rodgers
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It was more me just thinking out-loud than a critique... I honestly think that the KS staff might want to talk to you, it seems like it would be a handy tool for them to offer project runners. Of course, you may want not want to sell out, right?

P.S. Thanks so much for the support! Now I'll really be excited to see what kicktraq predicts...

----

Now, I will return to thread to the awesomeness of Blackwater Gulch!
 
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Tim Kline

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You can post about whatever you want, then I free bumps to the top of the page

Crossed $12,000 today! had some ups and downs as some canceled or lowered their pledges, but as people backed out of some sold out spots, other folks jumped right in to their place. I think I'm in that "middle of the campaign" part they talk about where it slows down a lot. Hopefully I'll have new artwork to show off in the next few days to bring in some new blood

Been getting lots of requests for painted figures too, so I set up a deal with Golem Painting Studio to take care of that for people that want it. It's a little pricey, but they do a great job. Definitely worth it if you want an awesome looking gang. They painted my Gambler gang leader and will be doing the "official" paint jobs for all my figures now for box art, etc.

And speaking of the Gambler Gang Leader, I just released him a few days ago, he's $8 now, but you can also get him free with the Kickstarter

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Odd T
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People can cancel their pledges? Hmm, I find that odd!
 
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Tim Kline

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Howdy folks! Since I started this Kickstarter campaign, some things have changed thanks to all of your support (thanks!), so I thought it would be a good idea to do an update explaining the different backing levels better.

First off, I refer to "starter sets" or "box sets" in different places. I should have used a standardized term to avoid confusion, but these things are both one and then same. Each set will come with 5 miniatures, 5 character cards, 5 plastic bases, a quickstart rulebook and a plastic case for safe storage and transport of your men.

Next, here is some updated text for the different backing levels. Kickstarter won't allow me to change what's in there once people start pledging, so better to just clarify it all here

$10 - The game will be dedicated to you! You will have your name in the rulebook's credits and you may select any one figure of your choice from any starter box set. (Note: you must pledge at least $30 to receive the extra free stuff)

$20 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any three figures of your choice from any starter box set. (Note: you must pledge at least $30 to receive the extra free stuff)

$30 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any one starter box set (No building kits included).

$45 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any one starter box set in addition to one GameCraft Wild West building kit.

$60 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any two starter box sets (No building kits included).

$75 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any two starter box sets in addition to one GameCraft Wild West building kit.

$90 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any two starter box sets in addition to two GameCraft Wild West building kits.

$90 - NEW - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any three starter box sets (No building kits included).

$100 - NEW - Pro-painted gangs! Select the starter box set of your choice and have all 5 figures painted by industry professional painters at Golem Painting Studio! If you would like more than 1 set done, you may simply add $100 per gang to your pledge. This price includes shipping. Please allow an additional 6-8 weeks for delivery. Models will be painted at a very nice table-top quality, for examples of their work visit their website at www.golempaintingstudio.co.uk

$120 - NEW - You will have your name in the rulebook and you will receive all four starter box sets (No building kits included).

$125 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any two starter box sets in addition to four GameCraft Wild West building kits.

$150 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any three starter box sets in addition to four GameCraft Wild West building kits.

$180 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you will receive all four starter box sets in addition to four GameCraft Wild West building kits.

$250 - You will have your name in the rulebook and you may select any two starter box sets in addition to six GameCraft Wild West building kits plus an autographed hardcover rulebook.

$500 - Everything in the $250 level above, and in addition you will a have character in the game world named after you, or you can make up the name of your choice. You may also provide their back story and game stats if you wish, and a new figure will be sculpted in your likeness (if possible). This character will exist in the game's history and fiction and will never die, unless you would like him or her to go down in a blaze of glory. This character will be added to the game as a new product at a later date (after these first 2 sets are made), and is not included as part of this Kickstarter project.

$1000 - Like the $500 level above, however instead of just one character, you have the option to create an entire gang / faction for the game. You can provide the story/idea/theme for the gang and name the members. This gang will be made as a new box set at a later date, figures will be sculpted based on your ideas and the set will be sold online and in fine game stores worldwide, right along with our other products. The only condition being that your gang should fit with the theme for the rest of the game, reflecting a historical, yet fictional WIld West setting. This gang will be added to the game as a new product at a later date (after these first four sets are made), and is not included as part of this Kickstarter project.


I think that about covers it! Keep in mind you may also increase your pledge without leaving the bracket you are in, for example if you are set to get 2 starter box sets and buildings and don't want to give up your "sold out" spot, you can add an extra $30 to your pledge for each additional gang if you want more.

Lastly, about the sold out spots. These are limited mostly because the buildings are made to order, and I don't want to swamp GameCraft with an order for hundreds of buildings and cause a lot of delays. That said, I will be increasing the number of spaces available soon (after I hear back from them about turn around times, etc). I'll post a new update when I change them
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Sturv Tafvherd
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Necros wrote:

And speaking of the Gambler Gang Leader, I just released him a few days ago, he's $8 now, but you can also get him free with the Kickstarter



That is one cool guy! Which set is he in? Or can we get him separately somehow?
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Tim Kline

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You can buy him separately off my site now

http://www.gangfightgames.com

Or if you're in the Kickstarter, you can get him for free (or the Bounty Hunter instead) for the $12,000 bonus .. If we get to $15,000 you get both
 
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Tim Kline

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Hey folks .. got some new concept art

Here's the Bloodwolf Chief


And here's the finished drawings of the first 2 Mexicans so far...




not sure if I'll have the other 3 before the kickstarter is over, but I'm hoping
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Tim Kline

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The Blackwater Gulch Kickstarter will end on Sunday, April 15th, at 10PM Eastern (New York) time. First, I wanted to say 'thank you' again to all of you who are interested in the project. It's been more successful than I ever imagined.

Now down to business! I have all of the concept art done for the Bandidos Mexicanos now, there they all are:



The concepts for the other gangs are all done, and on the Kickstarter page now.

Many have asked to increase the amount of sold-out backing levels that include building kits, so as a sort of "End Of The Kickstarter Blowout Extravaganza," I'm going to be freeing up a bunch of extra slots in those sold-out spots. And since I'm fresh out of new ideas for stretch goals, and there's only a couple of days left anyway, I'm just going to let it ride now and see how we do at the end. Keep in mind, for every $1,500 raised, you get an extra Sheriff die... as of this moment, everyone is getting eleven dice, at $18,000 it will be an even twelve, and so on! For those of you that may want even more dice, you can add extra money to your pledge, an extra $3 for four dice ($0.75 cents each, but I think Kickstarter only lets you add dollars).

We're in the home stretch now, so if you've been waiting, now's the time to jump in and save, and get some free goodies before it's too late!
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