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Subject: The Future of Same-Sex marriage rss

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Chad Ellis
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It's funny to look back and think, "I would never have seen this coming."

When I was in high school I was out to a tiny number of people. I came out more widely in college and got a modest amount of threats and nasty voicemails for it. Back then the aspiration was the eliminate the laws that criminalized gay sex and gay relationships and maybe to get legal protection in the workplace.

Twenty years later and a majority of Americans support gay marriage, according to polls. The President has announced his support. A handful of states allow gay marriage. It's a huge change.

Of course, there's a Newtonian reaction to this change -- a strong movement of people who want to prevent the spread of gay marriage to their states or even to roll it back. Advances in California, Maine and Iowa have been followed by setbacks (or, if you're on the other side, setbacks have been followed by victories).

So what comes next? We have enough threads about what should happen; what do people think will happen?

I think Shep Smith has it right. In reporting on Obama's changed position he asked if the GOP would campaign on same-sex marriage "while sitting very firmly, without much question, on the wrong side of history on it."

Polling on same-sex marriage has shown a steady trend, with support rising and opposition falling by 2-3 percentage points each year. Either last year or this year the "support" number passed 50%; the "oppose" number passed it two years ago, but in the opposite direction.

Each generation of people seems more positive on full gay equality. Even among evangelicals gay marriage has lost ground among the young. In some areas demographics reverse with age -- college kids are always damn hippies but a fair share of them grow up to be Republicans. But with civil rights generally and gay rights specifically this doesn't seem to be as much the case. My generation is vastly changed from where my parent's generation was at the age I am now. When I grew up the main public images of homosexuals were either absurdly flamboyant or hypersexualized. The debate was whether they should be allowed to teach kids or maybe if they should be thrown in jail. Now kids are growing up with classmates who have same-sex parents, a wide range of normal gay characters on TV and a national discourse about whether gay people should be allowed to marry and to serve openly in the military.

Does anyone have a contrary view? Does anyone here think that what we've seen over the past decade is a pendulum swinging too far and that the trend will reverse? Put another way...does anyone here think that same-sex marriage will be illegal anywhere in the United States fifty years from now? A hundred?
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Stephen Mcleod
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
It's funny to look back and think, "I would never have seen this coming."

When I was in high school I was out to a tiny number of people. I came out more widely in college and got a modest amount of threats and nasty voicemails for it. Back then the aspiration was the eliminate the laws that criminalized gay sex and gay relationships and maybe to get legal protection in the workplace.

Twenty years later and a majority of Americans support gay marriage, according to polls. The President has announced his support. A handful of states allow gay marriage. It's a huge change.

Of course, there's a Newtonian reaction to this change -- a strong movement of people who want to prevent the spread of gay marriage to their states or even to roll it back. Advances in California, Maine and Iowa have been followed by setbacks (or, if you're on the other side, setbacks have been followed by victories).

So what comes next? We have enough threads about what should happen; what do people think will happen?

I think Shep Smith has it right. In reporting on Obama's changed position he asked if the GOP would campaign on same-sex marriage "while sitting very firmly, without much question, on the wrong side of history on it."

Polling on same-sex marriage has shown a steady trend, with support rising and opposition falling by 2-3 percentage points each year. Either last year or this year the "support" number passed 50%; the "oppose" number passed it two years ago, but in the opposite direction.

Each generation of people seems more positive on full gay equality. Even among evangelicals gay marriage has lost ground among the young. In some areas demographics reverse with age -- college kids are always damn hippies but a fair share of them grow up to be Republicans. But with civil rights generally and gay rights specifically this doesn't seem to be as much the case. My generation is vastly changed from where my parent's generation was at the age I am now. When I grew up the main public images of homosexuals were either absurdly flamboyant or hypersexualized. The debate was whether they should be allowed to teach kids or maybe if they should be thrown in jail. Now kids are growing up with classmates who have same-sex parents, a wide range of normal gay characters on TV and a national discourse about whether gay people should be allowed to marry and to serve openly in the military.

Does anyone have a contrary view? Does anyone here think that what we've seen over the past decade is a pendulum swinging too far and that the trend will reverse? Put another way...does anyone here think that same-sex marriage will be illegal anywhere in the United States fifty years from now? A hundred?


I do. We are facing a very critical period sometime during the next 100 years. It's possible in less than a couple decades for people to become very authoritarian and conformist.

However, the more likely course is that most folks really won't care about this issue and will have bigger fish to fry.
 
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Damian
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I think it's inevitable at this point. Just one of those sweeping societal changes, much like emancipation or universal suffrage that seems almost incomprehensible after the fact that it was any other way.
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Dane Peacock
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Fifty years in the future, the gay/straight marriage only bigots will have their hypocrisies shoved up their collective asses. All consenting adults will have the full rights of marriage. The arguments made by those against any form of poly marriages, incest, or any other marriages between consenting adults will be exposed as prejudiced, ignorant, and hypocritical. All marriages will finally be free from the civil rights oppression of the gay/straight only marriage bigots.
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William Boykin
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As the 24 hour newscycle heats up into the 24 MINUTE newscycle, most people will have forgotten this. However, those who want to clone themselves to make entire Clone Families based upon one set of DNA will be calling those who say that Marriage should be "Two different Sets of DNA" bigots.

Darilian
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Chapel
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I forsee the continued errosion of states rights, and a concerted effort to move to more of a federalist society. I for one look forward to it. Tired of ignorance hiding behind a fence..
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Paul Sauberer
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If Islamism or certain versions of statist totalitarianism become dominant across the world, including the US in the next 50 years it is certainly possible for same sex marriage to be outlawed.
 
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Chad Ellis
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Sure, but do you consider that credible?
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robert cabrera
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”RIGHTS....life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness”
 
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Paul Sauberer
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
Sure, but do you consider that credible?


Maybe not in the US by 50 years, but given demographics it is possible, although not necessarily probable yet, in western Europe in that time frame.
 
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Necessary Evil
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It will take the supreme court ruling to overturn the states. Then 10 years for people to forget about it all.

M
 
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Jorge Montero
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Psauberer wrote:

Maybe not in the US by 50 years, but given demographics it is possible, although not necessarily probable yet, in western Europe in that time frame.


Only if you use the kind of projections you can find here:

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SH W
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I don't have a contrary view. I think we will look at opponents of same-sex marriage in the future like how we look at past opponents of anti-slavery now. But the time frame, I do not know.

Some may blame religion for the slow rate of change. Personally, I think that would be unfair. This is because different fields of knowledge operate by slightly different rules, hence the resistance to change to each is different. Religion is weak in initiating a radical change of thought, but it would be useful in cementing it.
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Brian Schroth
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The future of same sex marriage:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/future-us-history-students-...

Quote:
DECATUR, IL, THE YEAR 2083—According to students in Mr. Bernard's fourth-period U.S. history class, it's "really pathetic" how long it took for early-21st-century Americans to finally legalize gay marriage.

The class of 2086 said it was "laughable" that people against gay marriage were given a legitimate political voice in the early 21st century.

The classroom of 15-year-olds at MacArthur High School—all of whom were born in the late 2060s and grew up never questioning the obvious fact that homosexual couples deserve the right to get married—were reportedly "amazed" to learn in their Modern U.S. History: 2081 Edition textbooks that as late as the 2020s, gays and lesbians actually had to fight for the constitutional right to wed.

...
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Brian Schroth
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It's possible that gay marriage will be forced on states with heavy bigot populations by the courts using the Full Faith and Credit clause- gay people will get married in states where it is legal and other states will be required to honor that marriage by SCOTUS. It hasn't been tested in court yet, but it would take some pretty impressive logical contortions to come to a conclusion that this:

Quote:
Full faith and credit shall be given in each state to the public acts, records, and judicial proceedings of every other state. And the Congress may by general laws prescribe the manner in which such acts, records, and proceedings shall be proved, and the effect thereof.


doesn't mean states need to recognize marriages from other states.
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Zé Mário
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Psauberer wrote:
Maybe not in the US by 50 years, but given demographics it is possible, although not necessarily probable yet, in western Europe in that time frame.

I'm pretty sure Portugal has a far lower percentage of islamics than for instance, the US. And I believe Western Europe does a better job at keeping religion out of politics.
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Pedro Silva
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Yep...

By the time the US are finalizing this issue, Europe we will be the usual step ahead (that comes from being around much longer, nothing else) and discussing whether marriage still is something the state should have any saying in or whether the very concept of marriage is still something useful.
 
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Holger Hannemann
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I seriously think that the rapid secularization of society among the younger generation and global communication via the the internet will have a huge impact on tearing down all sorts of walls. Not only homophobia, also walls of political oppression, racism and fanaticism will be torn down easier than before.
Our grandkids will probably laugh at us how stupid our times were socially as well as politically and culturally. Hasn't it always been like that?

I think that homophobia is on its way out, but it is still fostered by religious leaders all over the world. Once organized religion loses its grip on societies homophobia will be gone.
I don't want to turn this thread into R but there's really no good reason for homophobia other than the holy books humanity holds in such high praise.
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Colleen
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There is a contingent group of people who believe that homosexuality is immoral as indicated in the Bible (don't ask me where because I don't know and I don't care). But many of these individuals have adopted an attitude that people can do what they want behind closed doors while still feeling that they cannot support making a law that supports immoral behavior. This group will always exist but will they be large enough to prevent gay marriage in the foreseeable future?

Another group to oppose view the financial benefits awarded to married couples to have potential devastating effects on companies and government organizations that provide these benefits. I don't know these details, but this argument could gain traction as the economy worsens.
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Matthew Horton
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Give it a few years for my latest wormhole technology project to come to fruition and inter-exo-species marriage is going to be troubling Republicans.

 
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Phil Standen
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tscook wrote:

I'm not entirely clear on what point you're trying to make, but I'm sure its shiteous.


Disappointed this isn't a real word9 I am going to use it more often in the hope of influencing the OED
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Chad Ellis
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colleens wrote:
Another group to oppose view the financial benefits awarded to married couples to have potential devastating effects on companies and government organizations that provide these benefits. I don't know these details, but this argument could gain traction as the economy worsens.


I'd be surprised to see this holding up much. The numbers just don't support it; we're talking about low single-digit percentages of the population. Beside, quite a few companies have independently moved ahead of state requirements, offering comparable insurance benefits to non-married domestic partners.

If companies need to reduce the burden of required benefits I think there are much more expensive areas they'll look. (This isn't that hypothetical for me...part of my job as CFO was looking at our benefits package and evaluating a range of cost/benefit tradeoffs. Not covering same-sex spouses wasn't one of those options but if it had been it would have been one of the first to get tossed into the "not going to make a material financial difference" bin.
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Joe Benavides
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It will be legal in the entire US within 10 years. Why? Because it is only a matter of time before someone, somewhere, challenges the law in a federal court and it gets carried to the Supreme Court which will look at these state amendments through the lens of legality. These anti-same sex amendments are precisely nothing but attempts to deny one class of people the rights held by another class of people. (See: Discrimination) The legal challenge might even come from a state where legal unions are allowed but full marriage isn't. I would be surprised if the decision of the court came back as anything other than unanimously against these laws and amendments, just as they did in Brown v. Board of Education the last time "separate but equal" was challenged.



You know, the interesting thing about being progressive is that in 50 years your views slowly become quaint. 200 years ago, not all white men could vote in the US. 150 years ago, the idea that any white man could be denied a vote seemed quaint and foreign, and yet black men could not vote. 100 years ago, the idea that any man, regardless of the color of his skin could not vote seemed quaint and foreign, and yet women could not vote. 50 years ago, the idea that any adult could not vote seemed quaint and foreign, and yet non-whites had to go to different schools than whites. Today, the idea that a student could be turned turned away because of their color seems quaint and foreign, and yet homosexual people are still told they cannot marry. In 50 years, this status, too, will have become quaint and foreign as we, as a society, will have moved to the next great progressive question. The most striking thing about the conservatives and reactionaries who oppose progressivism is their 100 percent rate of failure. The question is never "if" social conservatives will fail, but rather "when."
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Kamikazi wrote:
The most striking thing about the conservatives and reactionaries who oppose progressivism is their 100 percent rate of failure. The question is never "if" social conservatives will fail, but rather "when."


I agree with you. But I think it would be wise for some of us to reflect on why social conservatism still has its appeal despite all these. Or why many folks are drawn to talking points like "small town values" or "ideals of our founding fathers". Personally, I think it is because in social progressivism, you win some but you lose some. People who fear to embrace change are those who has lost much in the midst of change.
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Chad Ellis
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Kamikazi wrote:
I would be surprised if the decision of the court came back as anything other than unanimously against these laws and amendments, just as they did in Brown v. Board of Education the last time "separate but equal" was challenged.


While that might eventually happen, I'd say that if you think it would happen with the current Court you're clearly mistaken. It wasn't that long ago that the Court only ruled 6-3 that the state had no business telling gay people they couldn't have sex in the privacy of their own homes. It might be that when this goes before the Court that Plessy is a better analogy, unfortunately.

Quote:
You know, the interesting thing about being progressive is that in 50 years your views slowly become quaint. 200 years ago, not all white men could vote in the US. 150 years ago, the idea that any white man could be denied a vote seemed quaint and foreign, and yet black men could not vote. 100 years ago, the idea that any man, regardless of the color of his skin could not vote seemed quaint and foreign, and yet women could not vote. 50 years ago, the idea that any adult could not vote seemed quaint and foreign, and yet non-whites had to go to different schools than whites. Today, the idea that a student could be turned turned away because of their color seems quaint and foreign, and yet homosexual people are still told they cannot marry. In 50 years, this status, too, will have become quaint and foreign as we, as a society, will have moved to the next great progressive question. The most striking thing about the conservatives and reactionaries who oppose progressivism is their 100 percent rate of failure. The question is never "if" social conservatives will fail, but rather "when."


I hope (and strongly suspect) you're right. Certainly that's been the path in this country. It hasn't always been the path throughout the world, but over time we do seem to get better and better.

I'll be curious to find out which of my own beliefs my grandchildren will roll their eyes at and say, "Grandpa Ellis is really nice but you just can't talk to him about that. It's just his generation's prejudice."
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