Underrated Wargames by the Numbers
Mike W
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I've been following the underrated and overrated wargame discussion threads in the wargame forums:
Underrated Wargames
Overrated Wargames

I decided to see what wargames are "underrated" when using the aggregrate ratings of the BGG wargamers.

The analysis details:
d10-1Pulled unique user ids from this thread:How many wargamers read this forum? (last pulled 6/18 -- the total count is at 638)
d10-2Pulled average wargame ratings of these users (Note -- this time I filtered wargames by having the filter that the game be both in the wargame subdomain and have the wargame category).
d10-3Pulled BGG ratings and std deviation for these wargames
d10-4Ranked these games by those with the biggest positive difference in ranking from by the BGG wargamers vs BGG, normalized by the BGG rating std deviation (this is known as the Z score).
d10-5Filtered out games with 20 or more ratings from active BGG wargamers (There are some interesting games in the 5-19 range, I might make these a different geeklist)

If you like these lists, there is a subscription thread for the wargamer data monkey:
Wargamer Analysis Subscription Thread
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1. Board Game: Ardennes '44 [Average Rating:7.92 Overall Rank:1485]
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This one was the top ranked wargame among the active BGG wargamers, so not much of a surprise. It is currently on the GMT P500 for a reprint.

I guess the rest of BGG is not as enamored of it as are the active wargamers.

BGG wargamers rating = 8.94
BGG avg rating = 8.00
BGG std dev = 1.62
=> Z score= 0.58

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 33
Number of BGG ratings = 326


 
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2. Board Game: Ace of Aces: Powerhouse Series [Average Rating:7.21 Overall Rank:2284]
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I had not heard of this one before, it looks pretty nice. Ace of Aces: Handy Rotary Series is also an underrated wargame, but I decided to put the entries together.

BGG wargamers rating = 7.73
BGG avg rating = 7.17
BGG std dev = 1.39
=> Z score= 0.41

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 30
Number of BGG ratings = 360
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3. Board Game: Dixie: Bull Run [Average Rating:6.26 Overall Rank:4347]
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Hmm, really? This game looks like it is all cards.. I don't think this game is for me.

BGG wargamers rating = 6.78
BGG avg rating = 6.28
BGG std dev = 1.29
=> Z score= 0.39

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 27
Number of BGG ratings = 298
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4. Board Game: Anzio [Average Rating:6.69 Overall Rank:2800]
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Looks like a an old AH game that got a boost from updated rules from checking out the BGG entry for this game.

BGG wargamers rating = 7.17
BGG avg rating = 6.62
BGG std dev = 1.43
=> Z score= 0.38

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 42
Number of BGG ratings = 412
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5. Board Game: The Peloponnesian War, 431-404 BC [Average Rating:6.72 Overall Rank:3118]
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This is the only game on this list I own. I have several times tried to play it, but for various reasons, I never succeeded.

BGG wargamers rating = 7.16
BGG avg rating = 6.67
BGG std dev = 1.51
=> Z score= 0.33

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 31
Number of BGG ratings = 306
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6. Board Game: 1805: Sea of Glory [Average Rating:7.39 Overall Rank:2821]
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I like this topic, but I tend to stay away from block wargames because I like to be able to play my games solo.

BGG wargamers rating = 8.10
BGG avg rating = 7.60
BGG std dev = 1.54
=> Z score= 0.32

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 20
Number of BGG ratings = 167
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7. Board Game: Battle for Moscow (second edition) [Average Rating:6.87 Overall Rank:3277]
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I remember the first edition of this game as a free PnP on web-grognards.

BGG wargamers rating = 7.26
BGG avg rating = 6.89
BGG std dev = 1.19
=> Z score= 0.31

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 31
Number of BGG ratings = 145
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8. Board Game: Frederick the Great [Average Rating:6.88 Overall Rank:2937]
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BGG wargamers rating = 7.12
BGG avg rating = 6.73
BGG std dev = 1.27
=> Z score= 0.31

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 33
Number of BGG ratings = 290
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9. Board Game: Napoleon's Triumph [Average Rating:7.99 Overall Rank:394]
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All of BGG and the BGG wargamers love this game. We just love it more.

BGG wargamers rating = 8.54
BGG avg rating = 8.05
BGG std dev = 1.68
=> Z score= 0.29

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 91
Number of BGG ratings = 1208
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10. Board Game: Rommel in the Desert [Average Rating:7.52 Overall Rank:1075]
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I might get the chance to play this soon, I have heard good things.

BGG wargamers rating = 8.00
BGG avg rating = 7.59
BGG std dev = 1.45
=> Z score= 0.28

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 69
Number of BGG ratings = 731
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11. Board Game: Tannenberg [Average Rating:6.36 Overall Rank:6334]
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There sure are a lot of spikes coming out of people's heads in this picture.

BGG wargamers rating = 6.71
BGG avg rating = 6.35
BGG std dev = 1.31
=> Z score= 0.28

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 21
Number of BGG ratings = 110
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12. Board Game: Empires in Arms [Average Rating:7.55 Overall Rank:982]
Mike W
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BGG wargamers rating = 7.97
BGG avg rating = 7.50
BGG std dev = 1.75
=> Z score= 0.27

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 38
Number of BGG ratings = 871
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13. Board Game: Devil's Den [Average Rating:6.61 Overall Rank:5503]
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BGG wargamers rating = 6.95
BGG avg rating = 6.53
BGG std dev = 1.58
=> Z score= 0.27

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 20
Number of BGG ratings = 116
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14. Board Game: DAK2 [Average Rating:8.26 Overall Rank:2325]
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OCS!

BGG wargamers rating = 8.73
BGG avg rating = 8.20
BGG std dev = 2.00
=> Z score= 0.26

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 22
Number of BGG ratings = 206

I was wondering where the game which shall not be named is on this list, and... it's got a negative Z score! What?
Stats for the Game which shall not be named (hint: it is a color):
BGG wargamers rating = 8.24
BGG avg rating = 8.33
BGG std dev = 1.91
=> Z score= -0.05

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 34
Number of BGG ratings = 213
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15. Board Game: Here Come the Rebels [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:2261] [Average Rating:7.62 Unranked]
Mike W
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GCACW, yes. I don't have this particular one, but the series is great.

BGG wargamers rating = 7.97
BGG avg rating = 7.62
BGG std dev = 1.42
=> Z score= 0.25

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 32
Number of BGG ratings = 250
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16. Board Game: Clash of Monarchs [Average Rating:7.11 Overall Rank:2998]
Mike W
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BGG wargamers rating = 7.55
BGG avg rating = 7.13
BGG std dev = 1.69
=> Z score= 0.25

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 20
Number of BGG ratings = 213
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17. Board Game: Stonewall Jackson's Way [Average Rating:7.52 Overall Rank:2388]
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More GCACW!

BGG wargamers rating = 7.91
BGG avg rating = 7.57
BGG std dev = 1.39
=> Z score= 0.24

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 33
Number of BGG ratings = 263
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18. Board Game: Guderian's Blitzkrieg II [Average Rating:8.07 Overall Rank:2354] [Average Rating:8.07 Unranked]
Mike W
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More OCS!

BGG wargamers rating = 8.65
BGG avg rating = 8.28
BGG std dev = 1.61
=> Z score= 0.23

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 20
Number of BGG ratings = 170
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19. Board Game: Winter War [Average Rating:7.03 Overall Rank:4278]
Mike W
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There is a really nice AAR of this S&T magazine game here:
The Great S&T Play-off! Session #1

BGG wargamers rating = 7.36
BGG avg rating = 7.05
BGG std dev = 1.36
=> Z score= 0.22

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 25
Number of BGG ratings = 119
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20. Board Game: Pursuit of Glory [Average Rating:7.88 Overall Rank:1629]
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A WWI "sequel" to Paths of Glory.

BGG wargamers rating = 8.33
BGG avg rating = 7.98
BGG std dev = 1.60
=> Z score= 0.22

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 27
Number of BGG ratings = 307
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21. Board Game: 2nd Fleet [Average Rating:7.23 Overall Rank:2134]
Mike W
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BGG wargamers rating = 7.37
BGG avg rating = 7.06
BGG std dev = 1.40
=> Z score= 0.22

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 30
Number of BGG ratings = 358
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22. Board Game: Up Front [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:388]
Mike W
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This one has shown up in the underrated and overrated discussion threads, I believe.

BGG wargamers rating = 8.25
BGG avg rating = 7.89
BGG std dev = 1.69
=> Z score= 0.21

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 109
Number of BGG ratings = 1541
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23. Board Game: Normandy '44 [Average Rating:7.87 Overall Rank:1238]
Mike W
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BGG wargamers rating = 8.13
BGG avg rating = 7.85
BGG std dev = 1.33
=> Z score= 0.21

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 40
Number of BGG ratings = 281
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24. Board Game: Federation & Empire [Average Rating:6.29 Overall Rank:4494]
Mike W
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Overall ratings here are pretty low, but the BGG wargamers like it more..

BGG wargamers rating = 6.48
BGG avg rating = 6.11
BGG std dev = 1.78
=> Z score= 0.21

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 21
Number of BGG ratings = 302
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25. Board Game: Grant Takes Command [Average Rating:7.89 Overall Rank:2530]
Mike W
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Final count in the top 25 .. GCACW 3, OCS 2. Everybody wins! Go buy some underrated games!

BGG wargamers rating = 8.28
BGG avg rating = 8.00
BGG std dev = 1.38
=> Z score= 0.20

Number of BGG wargamer ratings = 25
Number of BGG ratings = 192
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