Dead Pool - Puerto Rico
Daniel Brown
United States
Cumming
Georgia
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But don't be fooled by the radio, the TV, or the magazines. They'll show you photographs of how your life should be but they're just someone else's fantasies.
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8-19-2008 is the date!.


Tony Ackroyd (1000rpm) Predicted the exact date. HIS BIRTHDAY. Happy Birthday Tony and congratz. I will send out Geek Gold shortly.

Thanks everyone who participated.




A dead pool is a game of prediction which involves guessing when someone (normally a celebrity) will die. While I find that idea of betting on someone’s death morbid, I though guessing the day Puerto Rico is no longer #1 could be fun.

I have seen many post on the Geek claiming one game or another will "kill" Puerto Rico. Even now there are people who believe that Agricola will provide the killing blow. In this game we are not concerned with which game will provide the final blow but when will it happen. All you have to do is guess when it will happen.

I am going to pay geek gold to the winner. If you would like to contribute to the pot please tip this Geek List. All tips will be paid out to the winner.

The rules are simple.

1. Each member of BGG can pick one date (Including Year). So Feb 1st 2008 is different from Feb 1st 2009.
2. You pick a date by adding an entry to this Geek List with the top line listing the date you pick. (Note: Dates picked in the comments section will be ignored). All dates are assumed to be in Month/Day/Year format unless stated otherwise.
3. Only the first person to pick a date will own that date all other post for that date will be ignored.
4. If no one picks the right date then whoever is closest with out going over wins the geek gold.
5. If a group pulls another stunt that removes Puerto Rico from the #1 spot, that doesn't count even if you pick that date (April 1st).
6. The game continues until Puerto Rico is no longer #1 (As long as it takes)
7. If you edit your post after you have made it than you disqualify your entry.(Don't want people changing the dates)
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1. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Daniel Brown
United States
Cumming
Georgia
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But don't be fooled by the radio, the TV, or the magazines. They'll show you photographs of how your life should be but they're just someone else's fantasies.
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1/1/2112

This is a sample entry. Please feel free to choose any type of Item to add this geek list as long as the date you pick is on the first line. Remember dates are assumed to be in Month/Day/Year format. So, 2/3/2112 is assumed to be Feb 3rd 2112 instead of March 2nd 2112.

Also, remember that if you edit your post like I am doing here after you have made it than you disqualify your entry.(Don't want people changing thier dates).
 
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2. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Nicolas Guay
Canada
Memramcook
New Brunswick
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May 26th 2009
 
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3. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Chris Ferejohn
United States
Mountain View
California
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Pitying fools as hard as I can...
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January 4th, 2009
 
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4. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Tim Harrison
United States
Cleveland
Ohio
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October 13, 2009.
 
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5. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Ken F
United States
Fort Wayne
Indiana
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July 23, 2008

I figure by this date another couple of hundred Power Grids will have been sold and played.
 
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6. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Matt Buckingham
United States
Berne
IN
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Sept. 01, 2008
 
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7. Board Game: Twilight Struggle [Average Rating:8.35 Overall Rank:4]
Philip Thomas
United Kingdom
London
London
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On November 9th 2014, 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Twilight Struggle will replace Puerto Rico as No.1
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8. Board Game: Agricola [Average Rating:8.03 Overall Rank:16]
Ben Lott
United States
Mason
Michigan
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November 12th, 2008
 
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9. Board Game: Monopoly: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:3.33 Unranked]
Billy McBoatface
United States
Lexington
Massachusetts
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Yes, I really am that awesome.
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Sep. 27, 2010.

I'm taking the long view.
 
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10. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Curt Collins
United States
Pittsburgh
Pennsylvania
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February 2nd 2009

Perhaps that day Puerto Rico will see it's shadow though and declare another 6 weeks of being number 1.
 
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11. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Philip Goldfarb Styrt
United States
Rochester
New York
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March 17, 2009.

The power of St. Patrick compels you!
 
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12. Board Game: Grunwald 1410 (second edition) [Average Rating:6.78 Unranked]
Russ Williams
Poland
Wrocław
Dolny Śląsk
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7/15/2010

Since I'm living in Poland, I'll say 600 years after the battle of Grunwald, July 15, 1410.
 
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13. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Jonathan Davis
United States
Wake Forest
North Carolina
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June 8 2011
 
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14. Board Game Publisher: Rio Grande Games
Andy Harris
United States
Dallas
Georgia
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December 10, 2008.
 
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15. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Louise Holden
United Kingdom
York
North Yorkshire
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May 8th 2009.

As good a day as any other, and my birthday to boot.....
 
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16. Board Game: Monkey Auto Races [Average Rating:6.77 Overall Rank:9829]
Liam Merlot
Australia
Melbourne
Victoria
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April 1, 2008

(it may happen again)

EDIT: missed the #5 comment, but with Agricola coming out in English around this time you never know.
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17. Board Game: Caylus [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:45]
Håkan König
Sweden
Linköping
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September 6th, 2008

I think I take my birthday
 
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18. Board Game: Highlander [Average Rating:6.60 Unranked]
(The Artist formerly known as) Arnest R
Germany
Munich
Bavaria
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Keep calm and carry on...
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June 22nd, 2009
 
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19. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Bartosz Sawicki
Poland
Warszawa
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-/--/----

I say: no game shall ever overcome PR on this fine ranking list(April 1st Monkey Auto Races types of actions excluded ) This ain't gonna happen.

Tell me - how and when can I claim my prize?

I really think you should bring up time limits on two things here for this list to make sense:
1) a time limit for biding on dates
2) a clear time period being observed (like 2-3 years or so)

Otherwise this pool can drag really long and possibly won't lead to any coclusion.
 
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20. Board Game: Agricola [Average Rating:8.03 Overall Rank:16]
Joe Grundy
Australia
Sydney
NSW
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2008-July-01

Agricola will jump to #4 in the month after it's release in English, and then hit #2 in the second month, and #1 in the forth month, dislodging PR to #2.

Incidentally, Twilight Struggle may also nudge over PR in roughly two years time. But that depends on the growth of BGG membership over that time. If we keep up exponential growth (which can't go on forever) then instead TS will just keep flopping about #3 or #4.

1960: The Making of the President also has a few notches yet to climb, and may even get to #4 in a couple of years.

Power Grid has been riding its stable point for a while, but will step down just a notch or two over the coming couple of years.

For the record, here's the average NEW rating being added to some top potential climbers:
8.63 - Through the Ages: A Story of Civilization (fall?)
8.47 - Agricola (climb)
8.39 - Twilight Struggle (stable)
8.25 - 1960: The Making of the President (climb to top 5)
8.20 - Power Grid (stable)
8.14 - Paths of Glory (stable)
8.11 - Hannibal: Rome vs. Carthage (climb?)
8.11 - Here I Stand (stable)
8.03 - Race for the Galaxy (climb to top 10)
7.99 - Brass: Lancashire (climb to top 10)
7.97 - Tide of Iron (stable)
7.95 - Combat Commander: Europe (fall)
7.95 - Commands & Colors: Ancients (fall)
7.94 - Imperial (stable)
7.93 - StarCraft: The Board Game (climb to top 20)
7.93 - Age of Empires III: The Age of Discovery (stable)
7.93 - Shogun (stable)
7.93 - Age of Steam (fall?)
7.92 - Railways of the World (stable)

Of course, any or all of the newer "climbers" may run out of puff in the rarified air before they get to the peak.
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21. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Tony Ackroyd
United Kingdom
Brighton
E Sussex
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August 19th 2008 (my birthday).

Presents are welcome - check out my Wish List for ideas!
 
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22. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
BibKamp318
Belgium
Beerse [near Turnhout]
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22-Aug-2008
 
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23. Board Game: Agricola [Average Rating:8.03 Overall Rank:16]
J
Canada
AB
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May 4, 2008

I think Agricola might hit #1.
 
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24. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Emanon
United States
Lancaster
Pennsylvania
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Looks like birthdays are the hot choice. I better take mine while I can.

July 3, 2008
 
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25. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
Kalle Miller
Finland
Tampere
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August 7th, 2009
 
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