How Expansions Improve upon the Base Game: A Look at the Data
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I was thinking about how expansions are rated on BGG, and I thought it might make for an interesting list if I compared the ratings of popular expansions to the ratings of their respective base games, to see which expansions most improved upon the base game.

For this geeklist, I considered the top 50 expansions on BGG (based on Bayesian average). I used the stats analyzer to get a list of ratings by users who had rated BOTH the base game and the expansion, and then compared the average ratings (raw average, not Bayesian) of that user group for the games, as well as calculated on a user-by-user basis how many liked each better.

DISCLAIMER: I don't know anything about a lot of the expansions in this list. If an item is on this list that you don't consider an expansion, well, BGG has it flagged as an expansion, so there. If an item on this list has the wrong base game associated with it, oops. If your favorite expansion does not appear on this list, that's because either it is not in the top 50 expansions by Bayesian average, or it is not flagged as an expansion. Or I made a mistake.

Anyway, I got some surprising (and not so surprising) results:

SURPRISING-- It looks like users who rated both a game and its expansion rarely rate the expansion higher. Of the 38,967 ratings pairs in this analysis, only 5,970 (15.3%) rated the expansion as outright better. 17,658 (45.3%) rated both the game and its expansion as the same, and 15,339 (39.4%) rated the base game as better. For me, I'd rate an expansion higher if my experience playing the game with its expansion was better than my experience just playing the base game. Based on this data, it looks like a lot of people have different criteria.

SURPRISING-- Advanced Civilization is #1? That certainly wouldn't have been my guess.

NOT-SO-SURPRISING-- People who rated the expansions tend to rate the base game higher than the general population. If you tried the game and didn't like it, odds are that you won't even try the expansion.

NOT-SO-SURPRISING-- The Puerto Rico Expansion is not very popular.

NOT-SO-SURPRISING-- Neither are the Settlers 5-6 Player Expansions.
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1. Board Game: Advanced Civilization [Average Rating:8.02 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.02 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.02 Unranked]
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Expands Civilization.

Users rating both: 879
Base game rating: 7.68
Expansion rating: 8.00
Delta: +0.32
Users rating base game higher: 159 (18.1%)
Users rating both the same: 346 (39.7%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 374 (42.6%)
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2. Board Game: Twilight Imperium (Third Edition): Shattered Empire [Average Rating:8.62 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.62 Unranked]
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Expands Twilight Imperium (Third Edition).

Users rating both: 554
Base game rating: 8.57
Expansion rating: 8.79
Delta: +0.22
Users rating base game higher: 66 (11.9%)
Users rating both the same: 304 (54.9%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 184 (33.2%)
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3. Board Game: Duel of Ages Set 2: Intensity [Average Rating:7.45 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.45 Unranked]
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Expands Duel of Ages Set 1: Worldspanner.

Users rating both: 283
Base game rating: 7.72
Expansion rating: 7.72
Delta: 0.00
Users rating base game higher: 38 (13.4%)
Users rating both the same: 200 (70.7%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 45 (15.9%)
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4. Board Game: Ticket to Ride: USA 1910 [Average Rating:8.01 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.01 Unranked]
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Expands Ticket to Ride.

Users rating both: 1115
Base game rating: 8.06
Expansion rating: 8.05
Delta: -0.01
Users rating base game higher: 256 (23.0%)
Users rating both the same: 533 (47.8%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 326 (29.2%)
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5. Board Game: A Game of Thrones: A Clash of Kings Expansion [Average Rating:7.84 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.84 Unranked]
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Expands A Game of Thrones (first edition).

Users rating both: 714
Base game rating: 8.19
Expansion rating: 8.15
Delta: -0.04
Users rating base game higher: 187 (26.2%)
Users rating both the same: 328 (45.9%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 199 (27.9%)
 
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6. Board Game: PitchCar Extension [Average Rating:7.60 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.60 Unranked]
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Expands PitchCar.

Users rating both: 523
Base game rating: 7.61
Expansion rating: 7.56
Delta: -0.05
Users rating base game higher: 97 (18.5%)
Users rating both the same: 318 (60.8%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 108 (20.7%)
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7. Board Game: Combat Commander: Mediterranean [Average Rating:8.51 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.51 Unranked]
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Expands Combat Commander: Europe.

Users rating both: 109
Base game rating: 8.93
Expansion rating: 8.86
Delta: -0.07
Users rating base game higher: 18 (16.5%)
Users rating both the same: 82 (75.2%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 9 (8.3%)
 
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8. Board Game: Civilization Western Extension Map [Average Rating:7.82 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.82 Unranked]
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Expands Civilization.

Users rating both: 412
Base game rating: 7.79
Expansion rating: 7.70
Delta: -0.09
Users rating base game higher: 102 (24.8%)
Users rating both the same: 232 (56.3%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 78 (18.9%)
 
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9. Board Game: A Game of Thrones: A Storm of Swords Expansion [Average Rating:7.84 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.84 Unranked]
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Expands A Game of Thrones (first edition).

Users rating both: 243
Base game rating: 8.42
Expansion rating: 8.29
Delta: -0.13
Users rating base game higher: 79 (32.5%)
Users rating both the same: 106 (43.6%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 58 (23.9%)
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10. Board Game: Catan Card Game: Expansion Set [Average Rating:7.13 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.13 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.13 Unranked]
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Expands Catan Card Game.

Users rating both: 1,081
Base game rating: 7.53
Expansion rating: 7.38
Delta: -0.15
Users rating base game higher: 297 (27.5%)
Users rating both the same: 581 (53.7%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 203 (18.8%)
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11. Board Game: Beyond Valor: ASL Module 1 [Average Rating:8.50 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.50 Unranked]
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Expands Advanced Squad Leader.

Users rating both: 304
Base game rating: 8.67
Expansion rating: 8.51
Delta: -0.16
Users rating base game higher: 73 (24.0%)
Users rating both the same: 202 (66.4%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 29 (9.5%)
 
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12. Board Game: BANG! Dodge City [Average Rating:6.88 Unranked] [Average Rating:6.88 Unranked]
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Expands BANG!.

Users rating both: 1,425
Base game rating: 7.38
Expansion rating: 7.16
Delta: -0.22
Users rating base game higher: 400 (28.1%)
Users rating both the same: 850 (59.6%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 175 (12.3%)
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13. Board Game: Carcassonne: Expansion 1 – Inns & Cathedrals [Average Rating:7.61 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.61 Unranked]
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Expands Carcassonne.

Users rating both: 4,055
Base game rating: 7.88
Expansion rating: 7.65
Delta: -0.23
Users rating base game higher: 1,246 (30.7%)
Users rating both the same: 2,138 (52,7%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 671 (16.5%)
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14. Board Game: Lord of the Rings: Friends & Foes [Average Rating:7.27 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.27 Unranked]
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Expands Lord of the Rings.

Users rating both: 1,235
Base game rating: 7.70
Expansion rating: 7.47
Delta: -0.23
Users rating base game higher: 361 (29.2%)
Users rating both the same: 664 (53.8%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 210 (17.0%)
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15. Board Game: Red Barricades: ASL Historical Module 1 [Average Rating:8.68 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.68 Unranked]
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Expands Advanced Squad Leader.

Users rating both: 154
Base game rating: 9.02
Expansion rating: 8.77
Delta: -0.25
Users rating base game higher: 45 (29.2%)
Users rating both the same: 83 (53.9%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 26 (16.9%)
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16. Board Game: RoboRally: Armed and Dangerous [Average Rating:7.78 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.78 Unranked]
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Expands RoboRally.

Users rating both: 699
Base game rating: 8.10
Expansion rating: 7.85
Delta: -0.25
Users rating base game higher: 178 (25.5%)
Users rating both the same: 453 (64.8%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 68 (9.7%)
 
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17. Board Game: Arkham Horror: Dunwich Horror Expansion [Average Rating:7.83 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.83 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.83 Unranked]
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Expands Arkham Horror.

Users rating both: 617
Base game rating: 8.44
Expansion rating: 8.18
Delta: -0.26
Users rating base game higher: 205 (33.2%)
Users rating both the same: 318 (51.5%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 94 (15.2%)
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18. Board Game: Descent: The Well of Darkness [Average Rating:7.74 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.74 Unranked]
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Expands Descent: Journeys in the Dark.

Users rating both: 361
Base game rating: 8.13
Expansion rating: 7.84
Delta: -0.29
Users rating base game higher: 122 (33.8%)
Users rating both the same: 193 (53.5%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 46 (12.7%)
 
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19. Board Game: Memoir '44: Eastern Front [Average Rating:7.94 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.94 Unranked]
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Expands Memoir '44.

Users rating both: 653
Base game rating: 8.38
Expansion rating: 8.08
Delta: -0.30
Users rating base game higher: 224 (34.3%)
Users rating both the same: 362 (55.4%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 67 (10.3%)
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20. Board Game: Commands & Colors: Ancients Expansion Pack #1 – Greece & Eastern Kingdoms [Average Rating:8.25 Unranked] [Average Rating:8.25 Unranked]
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Expands Commands & Colors: Ancients.

Users rating both: 251
Base game rating: 8.72
Expansion rating: 8.40
Delta: -0.32
Users rating base game higher: 86 (34.3%)
Users rating both the same: 145 (57.8%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 20 (8.0%)
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21. Board Game: Descent: The Altar of Despair [Average Rating:7.76 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.76 Unranked]
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Expands Descent: Journeys in the Dark.

Users rating both: 197
Base game rating: 8.38
Expansion rating: 8.06
Delta: -0.32
Users rating base game higher: 71 (36.0%)
Users rating both the same: 107 (54.3%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 19 (9.6%)
 
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22. Board Game: Carcassonne: Expansion 2 – Traders & Builders [Average Rating:7.60 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.60 Unranked]
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Expands Carcassonne.

Users rating both: 3,051
Base game rating: 7.94
Expansion rating: 7.61
Delta: -0.33
Users rating base game higher: 1,154 (37.8%)
Users rating both the same: 1,368 (44.8%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 529 (17.3%)
 
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23. Board Game: Ticket to Ride: Switzerland [Average Rating:7.52 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.52 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.52 Unranked]
 
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Expands Ticket to Ride.

Users rating both: 456
Base game rating: 7.99
Expansion rating: 7.66
Delta: -0.33
Users rating base game higher: 194 (42.5%)
Users rating both the same: 158 (34.6%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 104 (22.8%)
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24. Board Game: Blue Moon: The Mimix [Average Rating:7.07 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.07 Unranked]
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Expands Blue Moon.

Users rating both: 332
Base game rating: 7.88
Expansion rating: 7.52
Delta: -0.36
Users rating base game higher: 122 (36.7%)
Users rating both the same: 187 (56.3%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 23 (6.9%)
 
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25. Board Game: Catan: Cities & Knights [Average Rating:7.47 Unranked] [Average Rating:7.47 Unranked]
Doug Faust
United States
Malverne
New York
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Expands Catan.

Users rating both: 3,118
Base game rating: 7.98
Expansion rating: 7.59
Delta: -0.39
Users rating base game higher: 1,295 (41.5%)
Users rating both the same: 912 (29.2%)
Users rating the expansion higher: 911 (29.2%)
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