At the Risk of Being Found Meaningless: After 3 Months of FORM Ratings......
Tim Benjamin
United States
Los Alamos
New Mexico
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FORM is a calculation of 'popular acclaim' vs the 'critical acclaim' of the current Bayesian Average ratings. FORM is 'popular' in that both the consensus of the community (Std Dev) and the Number of votes are included. This method has a statistically defensible basis and it also avoids the recent issue of large early rating flucuations. It has also been termed a 'lagging indicator' (thanks Calib) because it looks at the long term view and not just the intial 'buzz' over a new and perhaps over-hyped game.

I've started a monthly comparison of the FORM ratings which I first compiled on 20 March (thanks again to Aldie et al.). Now that 20 May has come, I can make a few observations. Again, only 49 games are on both the Bayesian and FORM Top 100 lists. Therefore, it requires a total of 151 games to make a combined Top 100 listing. In May, 1871 games had 25 or more votes (my FORM criterion), increasing by 58 in one month. Similarly, the number of games with at least one vote increased from 7853 to 8205 with thousands of games listed having no votes.

http://www.boardgamegeek.com/geeklist.php3?action=...d=2077).

The following are some of the 'winners' and 'losers' in gaining acceptance by the BGG community.
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1. Board Game: Ticket to Ride [Average Rating:7.46 Overall Rank:124] [Average Rating:7.46 Unranked]
Tim Benjamin
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Ticket to Ride continues to climb in the FORM ratings, up 752 places in 2 months! Now at 33, I expect ToR will be approaching the Top 10 and will be part of the 'culture' for a long time to come. Despite its various flaws I think ToR is an even better 'cross-over', 'bridge', or 'gateway' game than Carcassonne; who won't try a train game? In fact, I think ToR could become a 'family' game where no other Euros are ever played.
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2. Board Game: San Juan [Average Rating:7.28 Overall Rank:228]
Tim Benjamin
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As (easily) predicted last month, San Juan is now in the FORM Top 100 at 60th (322 places in 2 months). Even though a 'lagging indicator', quality games CAN rise very fast on the FORM scale.
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3. Board Game: Fearsome Floors [Average Rating:6.66 Overall Rank:910]
Tim Benjamin
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Finstere Flure rose 20 places to 85th and will proabably make the Top 50 with a little more time for BGGers to see what a fun game this is. (On order)
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4. Board Game: Domaine [Average Rating:7.02 Overall Rank:647]
Tim Benjamin
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Domaine is the third game to break into the Top 100, rising 9 places to 98th. Should be regular there as it replaces Lowenherz (50th) on gamer's shelves. (Need to buy)
 
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5. Board Game: Pirate's Cove [Average Rating:6.59 Overall Rank:1018]
Tim Benjamin
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When 3 games enter the Top 100, 3 must also fall; Piratenbucht (94 to 101), Carolus Magnus (98 to 103), and Settlers of Catan Card Game Expansions (91 to 104).
 
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6. Board Game: Hansa [Average Rating:6.90 Overall Rank:709]
Tim Benjamin
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And my April prediction of Hansa making the Top 100 in May.... up 26 places to 127th..... maybe in June.
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7. Board Game: Scrabble [Average Rating:6.29 Overall Rank:1504]
Tim Benjamin
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Of the old 'family' games Scrabble (60th), Risk (78), and Chess (84) still hold steady in the FORM Top 100.
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8. Board Game: Oasis [Average Rating:6.73 Overall Rank:1243]
Tim Benjamin
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Other up and coming games to look for are Oasis (up 191 places in 2 months to 241st), Tongiaki(up 192 places in 2 months to 358th), Maya (up 259 places in 2 months to 448th).
 
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9. Board Game: Liberty: The American Revolution 1775-83 [Average Rating:7.18 Overall Rank:2089]
Tim Benjamin
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The biggest loser from last month was Liberty, 428 places, down to 1098th. The difference in what appears to be a good wargame is that the 4 most recent voters were less satisfied that the prior 35, increasing the Std Dev by 40% (to a more common 1.5) which, of course, affected the FORM rating proportionately. Time will tell if it rebounds. (I intend to buy it)
 
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10. Board Game: The Mad Magazine Game [Average Rating:4.87 Overall Rank:15278]
Tim Benjamin
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The biggest drop (91 places) for a game with over 100 votes was The Mad Magazine Game, from 1069 to 1160. (Wow! Over 100 votes?)
 
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11. Board Game: Who's the Ass? [Average Rating:6.08 Overall Rank:3964]
 
Tim Benjamin
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And my favorite unrated game, with only 4 votes, Who's the Ass. The first one to guess correctly will win 5 GeekGold.
 
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