Poll position Mark II
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About 6 months ago I made a geek list of polls to allow people to predict future rankings. Here's the follow up on how we did and some new polls.

http://www.boardgamegeek.com/geeklist/32313

I didn't put a time frame on the last questions and that left it a little ambiguous. So I'll try to do this every 6 months so where pertinent all questions refer to what will happen in the next 6 months.

I tend to add comments to each selection in the multiple choice and some people said they wanted to vote for a certain item but disagreed with the comment. The comments are just because I find 1,2,3,4 a bit boring. where as 2 (got to sell a lot of copies to get here) as more interesting. So feel free to vote for 2 if that is where you think the rank will be even if the comment is different, incongruent , or just lame.
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1. Board Game: Dominion [Average Rating:7.67 Overall Rank:72] [Average Rating:7.67 Unranked]
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The Lastest entry into the top Ten. Very popular at the cons both in being played and selling out at the vendors booth. Currently ranked 9 with only a little over 1500 votes so the Bayesian averaging is keeping it down a bit. Seems clear it will continue to climb a bit more after people get the Christmas gifts and start voting.

Poll
Where will Dominion Top out?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
9: Its as high as its going to get
8.3% 1
6-8: Will climb a couple more spots but won't make the top 5
41.7% 5
5: Golden rings
33.3% 4
4: Calling Birds
8.3% 1
3: Would have to displace PR or power grid
8.3% 1
2: It took 6 years to beat PR, could a second game the same year do it
0.0% 0
1: I'll bet 10 GG this doesn't happen, but....
0.0% 0
Voters 12
This poll is now closed.   12 answers
Poll created by Sislar
Closes: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 am
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2. Board Game: Through the Ages: A Story of Civilization [Average Rating:8.04 Overall Rank:25]
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Through the ages was rank 8 or 9 when the poll was taken. Since it had the fewest votes of any of the top ten it had the most volatility. 66% of BGG thought it would fall out of the top ten.

Today it stands at 11, Though this seems more due to dominion's rise rather than any change in its how people ranked it. The availability is currently limited but a new printing is almost here. Will additional votes help or hurt its rank?

Poll
New printing...
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Back to the top ten: It was forced out due number of votes, once more copies are printed its star will rise
36.4% 4
11-20: This seems to be the range for good games that are not standard 90 minutes euros
18.2% 2
20 or worse: Good game but a niche, long play time and high price, will drop with age.
45.5% 5
Voters 11
This poll is now closed.   11 answers
Poll created by Sislar
Closes: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 am
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3. Board Game: Agricola [Average Rating:8.03 Overall Rank:16]
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At the time of the pool agricola was ranked 5 and climbing. The questions was whether it would reach Number 1, peter out earlier, or fall further down the list. Amazingly less than 10% of voters got this one right. Agricola has become the solid number 1. Though 25% did think it would make it to number 2.

Since another poll on its rank would be someone pointless. Here is poll on its Bayesian average. It may seem the choices are very limited but the average doesn't move much with at this end of the spetrum and with this many votes.

Poll
What will be Agricola's highest Bayesian average.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
8.33 (Current value)
70.0% 7
8.34
30.0% 3
8.35
0.0% 0
8.36
0.0% 0
8.37 or higher
0.0% 0
Voters 10
This poll is now closed.   10 answers
Poll created by Sislar
Closes: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 am
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4. Board Game: Race for the Galaxy [Average Rating:7.77 Overall Rank:48]
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At the time of the last poll Race was oscillating between 10 and 11. The question was a simple in or out of the top ten. Since then race has moved up to number 8 so seems a solid top ten'er. 53% said it would not be in the top ten and further 25% said it would depend on the expansion. Since it moved up to 8 before the expansion I don't think that was really a factor (feel free to argue that in the comments)

Poll
How will the expansion effect RftG's Rank
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Up Up Up: The new expansion will get more people interested, More votes higher rank.
33.3% 4
No effect: It will stay the same or change slightly but not due to the expansion.
41.7% 5
Down Down Down: A buck a card are they kidding!
25.0% 3
Voters 12
This poll is now closed.   12 answers
Poll created by Sislar
Closes: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 am
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5. Board Game: Caylus [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:45]
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Another top ten item but one that clearly has been headed downward. The question was how far would it go. The pool said pretty far. In fact the responses to all the polls was decidedly negative. It was 60/40 with 60% saying out of the top ten and some saying I should have had an option to say 20+. Well Caylus has been hanging in there at 7. However it has two contenders Race for the galaxy and Dominion are closing in fast

Poll
Bears or bulls
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
7 or better: Solid euro, has long term staying power
15.4% 2
8: Either RftG or Dominion will overtake it
15.4% 2
9: Both RftG and Dominion will be ahead of Caylus before long
30.8% 4
10 or worse: Its yesterday's news
38.5% 5
Voters 13
This poll is now closed.   13 answers
Poll created by Sislar
Closes: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 am
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6. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:15]
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Our old champ. Not surprisingly since 90% of people didn't see agricola reaching number 1 most people thought PR would keep its top spot.

It seems close to 100% certain that PR will stay number 2 for a while. I just don't see agricola dropping out of number 1. It took 6 years to be beaten and lightning isn't going to strike again this soon.

Can't think of an interesting poll for this one. I'll give 1/2 a GG for anyone that thinks of a good poll for this. (sorry for being cheap I only have one GG to my name at the moment). If anyone donates GG to this comment I'll add that to the reward for an interesting poll idea.
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7. Board Game: What Happens Next [Average Rating:6.75 Unranked] [Average Rating:6.75 Unranked]
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What new game will make the next big splash? I choose a lot
of Essen releases as they are new enough that there ranking is not yet stabilized. I left Dominion off as its already in the top ten and too easy an answer. I'm sure I am missing a ton of games released there so please pick among the listed items. If there is one you think is higher post a comment and people can thumb it instead of voting on the poll.

Poll
What new game released at Essen will reach the highest ranking.
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Cavum
0.0% 0
Ghost Stories
0.0% 0
Sylla
0.0% 0
Le Harve
63.6% 7
Powerboats
9.1% 1
Space Alert
9.1% 1
Duck Dealer
9.1% 1
Battlestar Galactica
9.1% 1
Castle for all Seasons
0.0% 0
Wasabi!
0.0% 0
Voters 11
This poll is now closed.   11 answers
Poll created by Sislar
Closes: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 am
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