The race for the top 100, 2008
Boyd Ludlow
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Last year I produced an analysis of the top 100 games through 2007 and the way that those games rankings had moved through the year. I found the exercise interesting and it seemed that others liked it too so I've repeated for 2008. To see the list for 2007 look here.

The concept is that the rankings are reasonably volatile throughout the year but at any one time there is only one game in each ranking spot, i.e. there are no ties. Therefore the data lends it self to a graphic representation showing the path that a game has (or multiple games have) taken through the rankings over time. It is then easy to see how a game has risen or fallen, its changes relative to other games, and hopefully pick out some trends.

This graph (and this list) shows the top 100 as it was at the end of 2007. Some of the games now in the top 100 weren't at the beginning of the year and some did not even have a ranking back then. Unfortunately to fit a hundred games into a graph that will remain readable requires a graphic that is too big to be displayed on your average monitor so you'll need to scroll about to see it all.



The legend on the right of the graph shows the games in the same order as they are on the last day of the year. To follow the progress of a particular game you can start on the right hand end of the graph and follow the line back through the year. Hopefully the colours are distinct enough for those of you who are difficulty with colours.

I think that the graph immediately shows a couple of things. Firstly that as you travel down the rankings the volatility increases with games swinging in and out of favour and games having notable peaks and troughs though the year. Secondly new games that are considered good by the BGG community can climb the rankings at a phenomenal rate as can be seen by the several 2008 games to now grace the top 100. Games come into favour much more quickly than they leave it.

So let's look at the top 100 games and the year that they had. Perhaps others can help explain why some of these games have performed the way that they have better than I.
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1. Board Game: Agricola [Average Rating:8.03 Overall Rank:17]
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We have a new champion.

Agricola is the new darling of the geek. Started the year as it finished 2007 by going up. Started the year in 10th but was already up to 5th by mid April. After a steady period it climbed again through July to take the number one spot in August.

I remember looking at the ratings chart for this game in the middle of the year and being surprised by the shape of it, a steady increase from 1 to 10 (i.e. more 10s then anything else, more 9s then anything else other than 10s etc.) Now the graph is a more normal (expected) shape as more and more people have had a chance to play and rate the game but Agricola has still made it to number 1 on the geek. So here's a couple of questions about the future.

* Can the reign of Agricola match that of Puerto Rico?
* With this sort of popularity will we see Agricola become as widely avaible as Puerto Rico (i.e. availble from places other than specialist game shops)?
* Will Agricola still be number 1 when it has 13,966 ratings?
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2. Board Game: Puerto Rico [Average Rating:8.06 Overall Rank:16]
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No longer the number one game on the geek but still a solid second. To have an average rating of 8.37 after having been evaluated by 13966 people is quite some achievement.
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3. Board Game: Power Grid [Average Rating:7.92 Overall Rank:28]
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Our 3rd placed game. Started the year in 2nd but got pushed down a place by Agricola in July, has been steady since.
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4. Board Game: Twilight Struggle [Average Rating:8.35 Overall Rank:4]
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Last year I suggest that this game may overtake Power Grid for second spot. The competition will now be over 3rd spot and while Twilight Struggle didn't quite manage to compete with Power Grid this year I think that it will still happen. The user average for Twilight Struggle is 8.33256 while that for Power Grid is 8.24503 but Power Grid has 8903 ratings to Twilight Struggle's 3355 so the bayesean average favours Power Grid. If Twilight Struggle can pick up enough ratings I think that it will slip ahead of Power Grid and bake up to the 3rd position that it occupied at the beginning of the year.
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5. Board Game: Tigris & Euphrates [Average Rating:7.71 Overall Rank:70]
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The bayesean average for this game fell through 2007 as it dropped from 2nd to 4th. This year that bayesean average fell further from 8.11177 to 8.01307 but the ranking only dropped 1 spot to 5th and that was due to the rise of Agricola. However I think that Tigris & Euphrates will drop further down the rankings next year and is already not far from falling behind Dominion who's stunning performance you'll see in the next entry.
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6. Board Game: Dominion [Average Rating:7.67 Overall Rank:72] [Average Rating:7.67 Unranked]
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In 2007 eight brand new games made it into the top 100 before the end of the year, in 2008 it was only six new games that made it that far. The current highest ranked of these is Dominion in 6th place.

A brief note about the graph before I go on. For some reason the overall rank for each game is missing for the bgg database for the dates from 14 July to 14 August 2008. I was able to calculate the rankings for games inside the top 130 or so but I have not pulled enough data to be able to calculate the rankings of lower placed games. In this graph it effects the lines for Dominion and Conflict of Heroes where I just rendered a straight line between the known data points. It does give the line for Dominion in particular a funny shape.

As you can see Dominion climbed at a good steady rate until it hit a wider audience at Essen where it really took off. As always tends to happen the climb has slowed down as the game approaches the higher rankings but I don't think that Dominion is done climbing yet.
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7. Board Game: El Grande [Average Rating:7.79 Overall Rank:54]
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Started the year in 6th place but ended down one in 7th. However it did step up to 5th place for March when it got ahead of Caylus in the rankings. With a couple of small blips El Grande has retained that lead over Caylus for the rest of the year.
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8. Board Game: Caylus [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:45]
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Down 3 places from 5th to 8th during the year.
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9. Board Game: Race for the Galaxy [Average Rating:7.77 Overall Rank:49]
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This 2007 game started the year still climbing the rankings from 25th to peak at 8th through September to November. Now back down to 9th place is 8th the highest ranking that Race for the Galaxy will ever achieve (nothing to be sniffed at though).
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10. Board Game: Through the Ages: A Story of Civilization [Average Rating:8.03 Overall Rank:26]
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Rounding out the top 10 is a game that was a steady climber through 2007. It surged up the rankings in the first quarter to reach position 8. A not so good second half to the year saw the ranking fall as low as 11th before stepping back into the top 10.
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11. Board Game: The Princes of Florence [Average Rating:7.57 Overall Rank:116]
Boyd Ludlow
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This shows the trend through the rankings of many of the older or more established games. As you can see the average rating has been falling slightly through the year and this has helped contribute to the four place drop in the rankings. However the rankings drop has also been caused by newer games pushing in ahead of Princes of Florence.

To me what is interesting is the slight but steady decline in the ratings. I don't have sufficient data to be able to tell but it would be interesting to understand that drop. Is it because players new to the game are not rating it as highly as earlier raters, or is it earlier raters revisiting their rating and rating it lower. If it is a case of lower re-ratings is this because people have got tired of the game after repeated plays or has it just lost some of the gloss in comparison to the shiny new games.
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12. Board Game: Age of Steam [Average Rating:7.69 Overall Rank:114]
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The highest ranking train game has fallen from 9th at the begining of the year to end in 12th spot.
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13. Board Game: War of the Ring (First Edition) [Average Rating:7.79 Overall Rank:82]
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In terms of the rankings War of the Ring didn't start the year well but it bounced back from May onwards to only finish down one spot from where it started, down two from its year high of 11th.
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14. Board Game: Commands & Colors: Ancients [Average Rating:7.78 Overall Rank:98]
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Another of the older games in this list (and older is a relative term here meaning a game that was released before 2007) that has gone up rather than down the rankings.

Start: 15
End: 14
High: 12
Low: 15

This is a very similar range to 2007 where the summary read
Start: 12
End: 14
High: 12
Low: 15

I guess it's steady as she goes for this game.
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15. Board Game: Brass: Lancashire [Average Rating:8.01 Overall Rank:34]
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Started the year outside the top 100 but roared up the charts to end in 15th place. If I remember correctly this was an Essen 2007 release. Why did it not rise as rapidly as some of the other Essen releases of that year even though it has eventually reached a similar rankings position? Is it because of less early hype, or was it simply from a smaller publisher and so early supply and therefore access to the game was more restricted?
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16. Board Game: Hannibal: Rome vs. Carthage [Average Rating:7.82 Overall Rank:134]
 
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The first pre 2006 game to have made a climb in the rankings. In fact this game is so old it's from the last millennium yet still climbed a place from year start to year end proving that there is hope for older games that want to climb in the rankings.
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17. Board Game: Paths of Glory [Average Rating:8.00 Overall Rank:100]
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Another older game that has ended up on it's year start position. Has it been a good year for wargames?

Start: 19
End: 17
High: 17
Low: 20
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18. Board Game: Die Macher [Average Rating:7.65 Overall Rank:185]
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The venerable old Die Macher fell 5 places during the year.
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19. Board Game: Shogun [Average Rating:7.56 Overall Rank:127]
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A big drop for Shogun from 8th at the start of the year down to 19th place. Is cube tower combat not as much fun as it used to be?
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20. Board Game: 1960: The Making of the President [Average Rating:7.59 Overall Rank:157]
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This game carried some of its momentum from 2007 into 2008 but could not sustain it. Perhaps surprising that this didn't do better in an election year but maybe the 2008 election held more interest at the time. Down 9 from its February high of 11th.
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21. Board Game: Ra [Average Rating:7.47 Overall Rank:135]
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In 2007 Ra fell 4 places down the rankings, 2008 it fell another 5. Last year it was suggested that Ra got a boost in 2006 by being re-released and this is just the tail off. That may be the case but it shows that a good game that is not simply popular because of a fad will only tail off in the ranking slowly over time.
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22. Board Game: Goa [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:107]
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A steady drop of 4 places for Goa as newer games climbed to higher spots on the rankings table.
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23. Board Game: Pandemic [Average Rating:7.66 Overall Rank:73]
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A new game this year and the highest ranked co-operative game. For the chart see the entry above for Dominion. Gained most of its rankings through February but continued to climb until it hit 23rd place in August then stalled in 24th until a late step at at years end. Seems to have settled into this level.
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24. Board Game: Railways of the World [Average Rating:7.69 Overall Rank:97] [Average Rating:7.69 Unranked]
Boyd Ludlow
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Started the year in 20th but that was also the high point of the year, fell to 24th at year end.
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25. Board Game: Imperial [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:140]
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Seemed to have a year long battle with Age of Empires III but eventually came out on top even if overall it was down 3 places.

Start: 22
End: 25
High: 22
Low: 27
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