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Subject: The death of the convervative republican party. rss

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Josh
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Now that the ridiculous title has your attention I'm going to try to bang out a bit of a stream of consciousness thought process here in which I hope to have a point buried.

I believe the modern Republican party is euthanizing itself.

I believe the blame for this can be attributed to both the radical right, and to the more traditional center-right.

The Radical right is just that, radical. There is nothing 'conservative' about it. It is a radical reactionary element that has bedded down in the nest of the Republican party and, like the cuckoo bird, forced out the future of the Republican party to lay it's own progeny in it's place. Blaming radicals for being radical is both accurate and somewhat pointless. The notion that a Radical will suddenly have a change of heart is a good dream, but no way to form policy and plan for the future.

The ones I lay the most blame on these days are the old guard conservative-moderates. They got scared, which is understandable if sad, with the shifting demographics propelling them towards a world in which they might have to actually address others as equals. In order to shore up their numbers they let the radical right into their tent. They cozened up to the energy and devotion, not to mention the short sightedness of folks like the Tea Party and their followers. Perhaps the idea was that these would be an easily controllable element. However the practice has shown them anything but controllable, and has not born the fruits of victory once hoped for.

The reason the old-guard get the blame, especially those still in power, is they have succumbed to their own fear and greed. I am not talking about the old ooo evil greedy R sort of greed, I am talking short term, personal benefit. The Tea party et all are out of control. They are a poisonous element in the Republican's camp, and even though they are a small portion of the actual power and wealth of the party they manage to cuckold the leadership through sheer determination and aggression.

There is a solution to this. The solution is to cut them off, cast them out, and drop support for these radical elements. The tea party does not have the numbers to remain a viable independent party. In the absence of the R's infrastructure and support they will wither and fade into obscurity, allowing the R to actually reforge itself into something that is conservative; something that resists change and overreaching not out of fear, but out of a genuine loyalty to tradition and as a sensible counterbalance to runaway populism. Good conservatism resists change, but does not oppose it. It slows it and tempers it, while accepting that change is a part of all things.

The failure on the part of the old R is that they are too greedy in the short term, and too afraid of personal loss. To house clean like this would mean hamstringing the party for several years, perhaps even a decade or more. Power would shift towards the left as the true conservative Republicans were forced in their diminished numbers to seek compromise and support from the Democrats while turning their backs on the far right. The far right politicians would need to be left out, marginalized, and as much as would be practical ignored in all policy making procedures until such time as their numbers waned to the point that the conservatives could once more begin party building, hopefully learning from past mistakes while they seek to grow and become a proper counterbalance once more.

Well, that's my thoughts. Maybe I'm just full of shit. I'm sure several folks will tell me if I am.
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bjlillo wrote:
You're full of shit.


No, he "Es packed wif de' poo-poo".
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Josh
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Alaren wrote:
All this post tells me is that you are in the habit of swallowing leftist propaganda whole.

The Republican party co-opted the Tea Party Movement for the same reasons the Democratic party co-opted the Occupy movement. Both were populist movements that threatened the bifurcated apple cart but garnered sufficient support to spin them into political gains. The Tea Party represented an opportunity for the GOP to capture the support of some fiscally conservative Democrats.

The leftist media has been predicting the sure, swift demise of conservatism since Nixon at least, and I personally remember this "the Republican Party is fading away" discussion taking place in my own childhood, twenty-plus years ago. And then I seem to recall a few eager right-wingers and doomsaying left-wingers who thought maybe it was the Democrats who were fragmenting and falling apart, back in 2004 or so.

If you think either party is about to go the way of the dodo, I've got some prime Florida real estate to sell you. But feel free to get back to me on this when the Republican party hasn't got 30 sitting governors and control of the House.

(Yes, I think that ideologically the GOP can and should be doing better than it is. But the same is true of the Democrats.)


I'm not saying the Republican party will cease to be. I'm saying they're losing any sort of ties to actual conservatism(which I favor to a degree) and are falling into the hands of pure reactionary lunacy. Sure you can hold onto some power here and there. You can jerrymander the house to lock in 10 years of success. You can pick and win battles at state and local levels, but when you can't manage to beat Obama, who by all rights should have been trounced in 2012, you either admit your party has problems, or you are further in de-nile than de-hippos in Egypt.
 
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Jorge Montero
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Parties very rarely disappear, but they can end up in a crisis, and end up changing their platform dramatically.

It's not that we don't have examples of this. Look at what happened to the democrats and the south. If the Republican party is at risk of entering a big crisis today, it's just due to demographic pressure. Every year it gets harder to win national elections without appealing to Latinos, and right now, the Republican party is not doing so well at that.

At some point, Republicans will either abandon their white protestant base, or just realize that even if they change some of their policies to capture the latino vote, the white protestants will still vote for them.
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Mac Mcleod
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Shadrach wrote:
Now that the ridiculous title has your attention I'm going to try to bang out a bit of a stream of consciousness thought process here in which I hope to have a point buried.

I believe the modern Republican party is euthanizing itself.

I believe the blame for this can be attributed to both the radical right, and to the more traditional center-right.

The Radical right is just that, radical. There is nothing 'conservative' about it. It is a radical reactionary element that has bedded down in the nest of the Republican party and, like the cuckoo bird, forced out the future of the Republican party to lay it's own progeny in it's place. Blaming radicals for being radical is both accurate and somewhat pointless. The notion that a Radical will suddenly have a change of heart is a good dream, but no way to form policy and plan for the future.

The ones I lay the most blame on these days are the old guard conservative-moderates. They got scared, which is understandable if sad, with the shifting demographics propelling them towards a world in which they might have to actually address others as equals. In order to shore up their numbers they let the radical right into their tent. They cozened up to the energy and devotion, not to mention the short sightedness of folks like the Tea Party and their followers. Perhaps the idea was that these would be an easily controllable element. However the practice has shown them anything but controllable, and has not born the fruits of victory once hoped for.

The reason the old-guard get the blame, especially those still in power, is they have succumbed to their own fear and greed. I am not talking about the old ooo evil greedy R sort of greed, I am talking short term, personal benefit. The Tea party et all are out of control. They are a poisonous element in the Republican's camp, and even though they are a small portion of the actual power and wealth of the party they manage to cuckold the leadership through sheer determination and aggression.

There is a solution to this. The solution is to cut them off, cast them out, and drop support for these radical elements. The tea party does not have the numbers to remain a viable independent party. In the absence of the R's infrastructure and support they will wither and fade into obscurity, allowing the R to actually reforge itself into something that is conservative; something that resists change and overreaching not out of fear, but out of a genuine loyalty to tradition and as a sensible counterbalance to runaway populism. Good conservatism resists change, but does not oppose it. It slows it and tempers it, while accepting that change is a part of all things.

The failure on the part of the old R is that they are too greedy in the short term, and too afraid of personal loss. To house clean like this would mean hamstringing the party for several years, perhaps even a decade or more. Power would shift towards the left as the true conservative Republicans were forced in their diminished numbers to seek compromise and support from the Democrats while turning their backs on the far right. The far right politicians would need to be left out, marginalized, and as much as would be practical ignored in all policy making procedures until such time as their numbers waned to the point that the conservatives could once more begin party building, hopefully learning from past mistakes while they seek to grow and become a proper counterbalance once more.

Well, that's my thoughts. Maybe I'm just full of shit. I'm sure several folks will tell me if I am.


You are not crazy nor are you full of shit.

The day after the election, the republican party thought they just needed to be more hispanic friendly and they can continue to appeal to a subset of the country. I was wondering what kind of drugs they were on.

OTH, I don't think you can underestimate how badly Obama has sucked in the job. If we had another Clinton, we might be talking about the death of the republican party. (tho there is a somewhere a long list of all of his accomplishments- I just don't think that impression got out).

But, the republicans are having significant and growing problems appealing to over half the voters. Unless things change, we are going to see a big shift with the 2020 census like we did with the 2000 census.

I think the anti-gay stuff is a non starter for them.

Abortion is a pretty solid for both parties and the hispanics are more religious.

The republicans are clearly no longer fiscally conservative. When they are in power, the spend like drunken sailors.

In an economy where more and more people are falling out the bottom, they are firmly appealing to the wealthiest 2% (Bush's "base").

The aging Boomers are a possible republican strength. People do get more conservative as they age. (of course pot use among 50+ year olds is growing so...). I'm not seeing a political shift in my boomer friends except the conservative ones lost their cool after 2012. Angry and bitter.

The democrats have effectively lost the religious vote. I'm not sure how they get it back. It's not just abortion. Many liberals are actively rude or hostile to religious people. Say goodbye to 20% of the vote for the dems right there.

I suspect all the closeted gay republicans are mostly out so probably no more major hits in that arena.

Corporations seem to donate to both parties so there isn't a big money advantage to either side.

I think republicans will continue to control the states through 2020.

I don't really see a good candidate from either party at this point so perhaps they could win the presidency in 2016.

I just don't see the republican party growing their power if they get everything they want. Instead, I see them hurting themselves.

I don't see the party dying- but I do see challenging times ahead.

---

Playing along with all this- I think there is going to be an economic downturn in in 2014 with the start of the next upswing in late 2015/2016. A good economy tends to favor the incumbent and vice versa. If this happens- then the 2014 elections could put more republicans in the house.

---

If they field another "Romney", there is no way I'll vote for them in any election. Last time was the first time I voted for no republicans.

I can see voting for republicans in various local offices again if they shift back a little bit.

One of my challenges with the Tea Party is that I think they are right-- we DO need to reduce government spending and stop running up annual deficits. But I disagree on how I'd do that (i.e. general cuts like sequestration, defense cuts, adjust medicaid and social security downwards for people with incomes over $100k or huge amounts of wealth, and undo the bush tax cuts until we are not running a deficit.)
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Josh
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Alaren wrote:
Shadrach wrote:
You can pick and win battles at state and local levels, but when you can't manage to beat Obama, who by all rights should have been trounced in 2012...


I felt the same way about Bush in 2004. I'd be interested in whether and why you think Obama's re-election was different, or how you think it was the same and what you think the Democrats did to solve it.

Again: you seem to be drinking the left-winged Kool-aid. There are definitely ideological battles being waged in the Republican Party. The same is true of the Democrats, as true as it has ever been. Referring to legitimate concerns about the direction our country is headed as "lunacy" and prophesying, even rhetorically, the "death" of the Republican party as a result is simply overwrought. You're just parroting the same hackneyed garbage the 24-hour news cycle peddles to pump viewer interest.


I never once prophesied the death of the Republican party, just the party asan actual conservative party as opposed to a reactionary radical one. Bush in 2004 was still wrapped in the flag of wartime patriotism. Perry was definitely a weak candidate to boot, but to compare Bush's position to Obama's on re-election is inane. Obama walked into an economic nightmare and didn't fix it in 4yrs. Right or wrong he was going to take the blame and he was doomed to be a one term president. There was no reason the Republican party should have lost prior to the primaries. They had it gift wrapped.

What is it that the R stands for again? Aside from No on Obama?
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Boaty McBoatface
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bjlillo wrote:
You're full of shit.
A nuanced and well thought out argument there. I seem to recall some Republicans saying exactly what the OP says.
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Eric Knauer
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This is where left/right labels fail since many of these “radicals” are to the left of Obama on issues such as military interventionism, drug decriminalization, and privacy/4th Amendment concerns. If this trend continues, the real losers are the neocons and good riddance IMO.
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Boaty McBoatface
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eknauer wrote:
This is where left/right labels fail since many of these “radicals” are to the left of Obama on issues such as military interventionism, drug decriminalization, and privacy/4th Amendment concerns. If this trend continues, the real losers are the neocons and good riddance IMO.
Libertarians are not conservatives, yet are now being courted by the American conservative party (which I think is what the OP was saying).
 
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Eric Knauer
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slatersteven wrote:
eknauer wrote:
This is where left/right labels fail since many of these “radicals” are to the left of Obama on issues such as military interventionism, drug decriminalization, and privacy/4th Amendment concerns. If this trend continues, the real losers are the neocons and good riddance IMO.
Libertarians are not conservatives, yet are now being courted by the American conservative party (which I think is what the OP was saying).


They aren't strictly libertarians either. See gay rights, abortion, 14th amendment, etc.
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Boaty McBoatface
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eknauer wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
eknauer wrote:
This is where left/right labels fail since many of these “radicals” are to the left of Obama on issues such as military interventionism, drug decriminalization, and privacy/4th Amendment concerns. If this trend continues, the real losers are the neocons and good riddance IMO.
Libertarians are not conservatives, yet are now being courted by the American conservative party (which I think is what the OP was saying).


They aren't strictly libertarians either. See gay rights, abortion, 14th amendment, etc.
A libertarian is a conservative who wants the right to do something people consider immoral (ironically like a hippie).
 
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Boaty McBoatface
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bjlillo wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
bjlillo wrote:
You're full of shit.
A nuanced and well thought out argument there. I seem to recall some Republicans saying exactly what the OP says.


Did you happen to catch the last line of his OP? If not, go back and re-read it. Then you'll see the hilarity in my post.
Did you not realize he pulled a Tripp on you, and got you to react exactly as he wanted?
 
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Eric Knauer
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slatersteven wrote:
eknauer wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
eknauer wrote:
This is where left/right labels fail since many of these “radicals” are to the left of Obama on issues such as military interventionism, drug decriminalization, and privacy/4th Amendment concerns. If this trend continues, the real losers are the neocons and good riddance IMO.
Libertarians are not conservatives, yet are now being courted by the American conservative party (which I think is what the OP was saying).


They aren't strictly libertarians either. See gay rights, abortion, 14th amendment, etc.
A libertarian is a conservative who wants the right to do something people consider immoral (ironically like a hippie).


On social issues, yes, but there are serious disagreements on economics and national defense as well.
 
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I assume libertarians are a party of their own. They have a candidate every election. I'm not sure why they are bunched up with the social conservative party(Republicans).

I think the lifespan of the southern conservative has reached it's half-life. I really think if the Republicans want a chance at regaining ground that they are really going to need to splinter into two separate factions. Those that are fiscally conservative, and those that are socially conservative.
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Josh
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If the republican party listed to the Pope, they would do much better off because the Pope's message for the church applies to them as well. Stop being so focused on abortion, contraception and gay marriage at the loss of everything else.
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Boaty McBoatface
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Drew1365 wrote:
The conservative/libertarian wing of the Republican Party is the only part worth keeping.

conservative/libertarian, can that even be a real political concept, I am a conservative who wants to allow anything?
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Boaty McBoatface
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Drew1365 wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
Libertarians are not conservatives, yet are now being courted by the American conservative party (which I think is what the OP was saying).



There is no "American Conservative Party."
I of course meant that as The American party that expounds conservative values, not as the party name. I would have thought it was obvious, but then I am not a conservative.
 
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Chad
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There does seem to be a fair amount of wishing/projection in the OPs post. This type of prediction was made when Clinton was elected (and then elected again). Was made when the Democrats regained the house in 2006 and again with the White House in 2008.

As Alaran pointed out - 30 of the 50 states are Republicans and they still control the House. Further, the Republicans have put considerable effort into the ground game, something they stopped doing during the bush years - I would expect to see a the results of this start to pay of in 2-4 years (better candidates - the GOP has fielded some pretty shitty candidates here in Colorado; better organization; cleaner message).

Finally, one of the dirty secrets of American Politics unlike Parliamentary systems is that we effectively pre-bottle our coalitions. Each party represents an amalgamations of these varied interests and the infighting is very common. Right now, the Democrats are having their own (less publicized) moments. Green vs. Business. Interventionists vs. Peace at all costs. This is why Governorships and Committee participation is so important.
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Josh
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Drew1365 wrote:
b a n j o wrote:
Quite simply, the Republicans just need to focus on the moderates, and ignore the far-right conservatives.


Yes, . . . do it, Republicans! Keep nominating moderates like Romney and McCain! Go ahead and give us Chris Christie in 2016!

Then wonder why you never win.


I want to try the drugs that make you hallucinate hard enough to make Romney a moderate.

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Boaty McBoatface
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Drew1365 wrote:
bjlillo wrote:
Drew1365 wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
Libertarians are not conservatives, yet are now being courted by the American conservative party (which I think is what the OP was saying).



There is no "American Conservative Party."


Yes, there is.


Oh, is that who you were talking about, Slater?
Thought I had already explained what I meant, do I need to do so again?
 
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Drew1365 wrote:
b a n j o wrote:
Quite simply, the Republicans just need to focus on the moderates, and ignore the far-right conservatives.


Yes, . . . do it, Republicans! Keep nominating moderates like Romney and McCain! Go ahead and give us Chris Christie in 2016!

Then wonder why you never win.
Palin and Ryan.
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Shadrach wrote:
Drew1365 wrote:
b a n j o wrote:
Quite simply, the Republicans just need to focus on the moderates, and ignore the far-right conservatives.


Yes, . . . do it, Republicans! Keep nominating moderates like Romney and McCain! Go ahead and give us Chris Christie in 2016!

Then wonder why you never win.


I want to try the drugs that make you hallucinate hard enough to make Romney a moderate.

Well he only wants to ban gay marriage and not give Americans the same health care as he gave Massachusetts.
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Drew1365 wrote:
b a n j o wrote:
Quite simply, the Republicans just need to focus on the moderates, and ignore the far-right conservatives.


Yes, . . . do it, Republicans! Keep nominating moderates like Romney and McCain! Go ahead and give us Chris Christie in 2016!

Then wonder why you never win.


please GOP nominate whoever Drew's preferred candidate for 2016 is please please please
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Alaren wrote:
The Republican party co-opted the Tea Party Movement for the same reasons the Democratic party co-opted the Occupy movement.


False equivalencies are the best equivalencies!
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