Ross Brimstone
United Kingdom
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So this is directed primarily at all you splendid mathematicians out there with all your charts and graphs and equations for hit percentages and dice probabilities and all that stuff: You know who you are!

I've got two specific B-Wing themed lists that I've been playing around with, and, though I'm not a power gamer (or even a tournament gamer), I'm interested to know which of them would have the highest average damage output.

The first is one of the more popular double-Blue + HLC lists out there at the mo, and the second is a variation of the Han Shoots First list, but with B-Wings.

And just before we get to the lists and the maths (or 'math', if you're on the other side of the pond), I'm aware that there is more potential damage output from a list with 2 B-Wings and 2 X-Wings, but I'd really like to have a go at the 2 Bs and a YT-1300 first because of the YT's 360 turret and higher combined HP.

So then, the lists:

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The Blue Man Group
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Blue Squadron Pilot (22)
HLC (7)

Blue Squadron Pilot (22)
HLC (7)

Chewbacca (42)

Notes: Max damage - 11 red dice per turn (12 with Chewie at Range 1); No defender defence bonus at range 3 from the HLCs. Chewie's ability makes the YT more survivable than Han.


-----------------------------------
I Just Blue Myself
-----------------------------------

Blue Squadron Pilot (22)

Blue Squadron Pilot (22)

Han Solo (46)
Marksmanship (3)
Gunner (5)
Anti-Pursuit Lasers (2) or Mercenary Copilot (2)

Notes: Max damage - 9 red dice per turn (12 with everyone at Range 1); Han's ability plus Marksmanship and Gunner increase the probability of his damage going through, compared to Chewie; APL or Merc Copilot offer chance of bonus damage (thoughts on which would be better are welcome).


And of course, non-maths related comments are welcome!
 
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Robert M.
United States
Michigan
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What math(or matthhsss, if you insist on pronouncing the silly "s" ) do you want to look at? Their average damage output is dependent on the game state at any given time--that is, what tokens you have, what tokens they have, what their Agility is, what the range is, etc.--which is a theoretically finite space but too large to conveniently work with.

It also depends on how many rounds you think you'll have where two X-wings wouldn't be able to attack, but Han will--and I can't possibly tell you that.

I can tell you that I like HLC B-wings but am suspicious of their cost versus their durability. I can also tell you that I wouldn't run a naked B-wing without either Advanced Sensors or a Fire Control System, because both of those upgrades are so good. And I'll also say that my experience with Han Shot First lists indicates that Han is great but that Han+Marksmanship+Gunner is overkill unless you expect to face PTL+Stealth Interceptors.

So in your position I'd go with a hybrid of the two lists: two Blues (or Daggers) with FCS or Adv Sensors, plus Chewie with Veteran Instincts/Determination/Draw Their Fire, the MF title, and probably a gunner.
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Ross Brimstone
United Kingdom
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Yeah I suppose it's a fairly nebulous question to apply the maths() to without any of the variables, but perhaps I should have asked, which list would you expect to cause more damage per turn if they faced the same list, say, your average TIE swarm?

Or, would Han and his upgrades be likely to do more damage than the two HLCs?

I suppose the maths I was looking for was how many hits would I be likely to roll with each ship/list (assuming they're all alive), before the defender rolled any defence dice, taking into account available focus/target locks/Han+Marksmanship?

Oh,and another question just struck me following your suggestion: Which would be likely to roll more hits; a B-Wing with a HLC and focus, or a B-Wing with it's standard 3 dice and focus and target lock (assuming it got one from its FCS the turn before)?
 
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jeremy betsch
United States
Georgia
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I like my Killer Blues

Blue Squadron Pilot (22) (27)
-Ion Cannon (3)
-Fire Control System (2)

Blue Squadron Pilot (22) (27)
-Ion Cannon (3)
-Fire Control System (2)

Chewbacca (42) (46)
-Push the Limit (3)
-Milennium Falcon (1)

Now your falcon is tankier, and you have the blues that can team up to ion a big ship one turn then get in close for two target locked, focused range 1 shots the next, and Chewie with Focus and Evade is a good bit tankier than just Chewie (or he can go gunboat mode with TL/Focus as well)
 
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Robert M.
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rossbrimstone wrote:
Which would be likely to roll more hits; a B-Wing with a HLC and focus, or a B-Wing with it's standard 3 dice and focus and target lock (assuming it got one from its FCS the turn before)?

That, I can answer. The HLC with either Focus or TL has better expected damage than the primary with Focus and TL.
 
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Dave Medeiros
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Arizona
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I get the following distribution for HLC+focus:

.4% 0 hit
4.7% 1 hit
21.1% 2 hits
42.2% 3 hits
31.6% 4 hits

For 3 dice with TL and focus, I get this:

.02% 0 hit
1.1% 1 hit
16.5% 2 hit
82.4% 3 hit

So on the whole, better damage with the first option. Note a curious nuance though: if you only need to do a little bit of damage - say, one more hit on a ship with 1 agility and no evade token - you're actually better off with the TL+focus primary.
 
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Dave Medeiros
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And a further nuance - I'm treating hits and crits as equivalent. But of course they're not, especially if the crit is "Direct Hit"...
 
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Jeremy Steward
Canada
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Complety non-math related comment. In general I dislike naked Bwings and think rookies are better. Blues with FCS or AdvS are great however. The reason is that Bwings are extremely vulnerable in round 3 and 4 when things are conjested and they need upgrades to be the deadly machines they are meant to be.
 
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