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Subject: Is stealth on agility 1 ships worth it? rss

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Joseph Woodworth
Japan
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I know that agi 2 is likely to get hit, especially by ships with 3 or more attack dice, however, looking at what stealth does - it only has to defend against one damage t be equal to a hull upgrade, or defend against one crit to be equal to a shield upgrade.

Given that agility 1 ships are 3/8ths likely to evade, or 5/8ths if focused, we can expect one evade result with focus on 2 dice. This suggests that stealth may be worthwhile over shield on an agility 1 ship - especially one that we want to take at least one more damage, something that will be targeted, and the one point saved can go elsewhere. Even if we lose stealth on the very first attack, but take one less damage than we old have.

If we look at the agi 1 ships, we also see that the all have shields, so losing the stealth early means we are not prone to critical effects any-way, so even saving against 1 hit and taking a crit, we've effectively saved 1 shield, so in this case it's equal to a shield upgrade when it works.

Is this reasoning completely off the mark?

 
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Dennis de Vries
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I've been asking this question myself a lot. Your reasoning seems sound, but I believe it's in your sentence: 'when it works'. There is a chance that it 'doesn't work', but there is also a chance that it will work multiple times.

What do you want to invest in? In a chance that it might be gone the moment you are attacked or that it will last a few attacks or a sure thing (an extra shield or hullpoint)?
 
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I think on agility 3 and up I'd take the stealth device over shield upgrade 99% of the time. When talking the lower agility ships I think shield is better because it's guaranteed to work. That being said I don't think the shield upgrade is much better. Most times I still go with stealth device because the extra point is needed for another upgrade I want.
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DB Draft
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It could work for the Falcon if the pilot has two actions and they stick to using "evade" and "focus" actions. Otherwise the 3 points could probably be better spent upgrading a weapon system.
Has anyone had that many ships with stealth go a whole game without losing it? I think it probably does very well if it could last 2 turns of direct targeting on any ship. So for an agility 1 ship I suspect it just acts as a pseudo one use "evade" token.
 
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Chris K.
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For me stealth's value is more in the "deterrent" rather than the actual evades.
If an opponent is faced with two possible targets, one stealthed and one naked he has to evaluate wether the stealthed one is sufficiently more dangerous to take the shot at him.

Sometimes he will rather take the easier shot (actually a lot of the time).

For this stealth has to be present on the ship as long as possible and since a 1 Agi Ship looses it nearly certainly on the first attack it won't fulfill its purpose for me.

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Ken
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I think someone did the odds a while back.

Simple answer: NO!

Unless you have 3 plus Agility Stealth is not worth the points. But for some reason, and I don't recall the post with the math. 1 or 2 Agility is better served with Shield Upgrade.
 
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Chris Brown
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chrisdk wrote:
For me stealth's value is more in the "deterrent" rather than the actual evades.
If an opponent is faced with two possible targets, one stealthed and one naked he has to evaluate wether the stealthed one is sufficiently more dangerous to take the shot at him.

Sometimes he will rather take the easier shot (actually a lot of the time).

For this stealth has to be present on the ship as long as possible and since a 1 Agi Ship looses it nearly certainly on the first attack it won't fulfill its purpose for me.


I completely agree. The "deterrent" factor is really underestimated in my opinion. But on a 1 Agi ship...nope.
 
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Robert M.
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No, it's not worth it.
 
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Dave Weiss
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Agi 1 ship? No. Either take a shield or the upcoming hull upgrade, or just forget it and use the points in some other way.

May it block 1 damage? Maybe, but even if you get 1 evade of the 2 dice, who's to say it was the stealth die that did it?

Do I use it on agi 2 ships? Yes, sometimes. Mostly as deterrent though.

On agi 3 ships, I actually have had them last till the end of the match. They first act as a deterrent protecting your powerful ships, then when your fodder is all destroyed, they can help you survive and extra round or two before getting hit.
 
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Bryce K. Nielsen
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Might depend on the ship too. On Shuttles, I'd much rather take the Sensor Jammer than Stealth Upgrades, since it's useful on every attack (well, every attack that isn't Focused). On the YT-1300, if it were the Falcon and can dodge, then maybe (though I usually save the points for the support ship). The fact that you lose it after you're hit really makes it hard for me to include it...

-shnar
 
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Matthew Cordeiro
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I'm just an amateur mathemetician, but here's what I get for the probability of that 1 extra defense die actually cancelling what would otherwise have been a hit in that first round of fighting:

2 attack dice, no modifiers: 21%
2 attack dice, attacker focuses: 30%
2 attack dice, defender focuses: 27%
2 attack dice, both focus:44%
3 attack dice, no modifiers: 28%
3 attack dice, attacker focuses: 35%
3 attack dice, defender focuses: 40%
3 attack dice, both focus: 56%

Also worth noting is the probability of keeping that stealth device past the first round of attacking:

2 attack dice, no modifiers: 59%
2 attack dice, attacker focuses: 37%
2 attack dice, defender focuses: 78%
2 attack dice, both focus:60%
3 attack dice, no modifiers: 41%
3 attack dice, attacker focuses: 16%
3 attack dice, defender focuses: 59%
3 attack dice, both focus: 30%

* not taking into consideration target lock, range modifiers, obstacle modifiers, or other effects from secondary weapons or pilot skills

In summary: stealth device on a 1-agility ship is likely not worth the 3 points. Hull upgrade (included in the Imperial Aces expansion) is a far superior option.
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Joseph Woodworth
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Just to double check, I assume you were for the first grouping, calculating for 3 dice, hit or hit or hit and defense or defense?
 
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Matthew Cordeiro
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ravncat wrote:
Just to double check, I assume you were for the first grouping, calculating for 3 dice, hit or hit or hit and defense or defense?

I did the probability of each attack dice outcome combined with each defense dice outcome. So for example, the probability of losing the stealth device in round 1 vs. 3 attack dice was the sum of the probabilities of no evades, 2 hits with 1 evade, and 3 hits.
 
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Dr. Thisson
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shnar wrote:
Might depend on the ship too. On Shuttles, I'd much rather take the Sensor Jammer than Stealth Upgrades, since it's useful on every attack (well, every attack that isn't Focused). On the YT-1300, if it were the Falcon and can dodge, then maybe (though I usually save the points for the support ship). The fact that you lose it after you're hit really makes it hard for me to include it...

-shnar


I think the Sensor Jammer has the most natural synergy with Rebel Captive. I'm not sure I would use a Sensor Jammer without pairing it in this way.
 
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Reckless Fable
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Shield Upgrade for poor agility ships
 
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Joseph Woodworth
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But on a low agility ship, when is that shield upgrade even going to matter?

Looking at expected damage values, and dividing over a number of turns, the shield upgrade sometimes doesn't really statistically matter... Key word is sometimes...

8 vs 9 damage required on a b wing... 3'dice w focus vs 1 without ( let's say worst case scenario... Should be about 4.2 vs 4.8 hits... Which means 5 attacks either way.

2 unfocused attack + 1 focused evade is much better for us, the difference of abut 2 shots... (22 vs 24 ). So it starts to matter more against weaker firepower...

Shield upgrade actually does us more good on high agility ships... Point is, both shield and stealth really are meta calls, how many attacks do you expect to deal with, and what's the attack value on the opponents ships
 
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Bryce K. Nielsen
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Don't forget that a Shield hit means no Crit. You see the impact this can be if you field a Y-Wing and a B-Wing. Both have same damage capacity, but the Y-Wing can have up to 5 Crits on it, while B-Wings only 3. Shields are rather handy for that...

-shnar
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