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Subject: Draft Pack algorithm rss

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James Ryan
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So this is entirely speculative, and I'm hoping some better brains will join me in this. I'm going to look at some screenshots of Team Covenant's look at the draft packs and make some observations about what FFG might be doing to balance the "boosters" (sets of 10 cards) inside their draft packs.

Here's the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmvgsZaHEAM#t=0

I know there was recently livestream coverage of a draft, so I might be able to gain some more info from that later.

So corp first.

Booster 1:


1.Janus
2.Project Beale
3.Beanstalk Royalties
4.SanSan City Grid
5.Chum
6.Hunter
7.Hadrian's Wall
8.False Leads
9.Rototurret

Hmm, he only drew 9 cards when he was supposed to draw 10. So let's look at the next pull.

Booster 2:


1.Eli
2.Power Grid Overload
3.Viktor 1.0
4.Government Contracts
5.Datahound
6.Ichi 1.0
7.Hemidal 1.0
8.Melange Mining Corp
9.Scorched Earth
10.Salvage

If you watch the video, you'll see he actually pulled the Viktor first, so Victor should have been the 10th card in the first booster.

Which means Booster 1 had:
6 Ice
2 Agenda (3 points)
1 Upgrade
1 Operation

And 9 of 10 cards in booster 2 included:
5 Ice
1 Agenda (3 points)
2 Operations
1 Asset

If the 10th card was an ICE, then these two packs have in common:
6 ICE
3 Agenda points
1 Asset/Upgrade
1 Operation (with a second added in the case of one 3 point agenda)

Now the Runner boosters.

Booster 1:


1.Creeper
2.Tinkering
3.Deep Thought
4.Plascrete Carapace
5.Underworld Contact
6.Forged Activation Orders
7.Grimoire
8.New Angeles City Hall
9. E3 Feedback Filters
10. Gordian Blade

Which makes:
3 Programs (2 icebreakers)
3 Hardware
2 Assets
2 Events

Booster 2:


1. Peacock
2. Notoriety
3. Aurora
4. Rabbit Hole
5. Public Sympathy
6. Cyberfeeder
7. Public Sympathy
8. Personal Touch
9. Demolition run
10. Magnum Opus

Which makes
3 Programs (2 ice breakers)
3 Hardware
2 Events
2 Resources

So the spread of these two boosters is exactly the same. Interesting that Public Sympathy was repeated in the second booster, leading me to believe that they were randomly selected from the "resource" category.

My guess is that these are the formulas for corp and runner "boosters" in the draft packs.
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James Ryan
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So new data from the first couple pulls of the live stream, which is at 5hours and 40somethignminutes here:
http://www.twitch.tv/ffglive/b/477661237

First booster we can see is this:
fetal AI
Datahound
wall of static
chum
Bernice mai
neural emp
marked accounts
closed accounts
chimera
chum

Which is:
5 ICE
1 agenda (2 points)
1 upgrade
1 asset
2 operations

Second Booster we can see is this:
Fetal AI
SanSan City Grid
4 ice (three are popup, Vikto 1.0, and I think Burke’s Bugs)
Scorched earth
brain trust
biotic labor
encryption protocol

Which is:
2 Agenda (4 points)
4 Ice
2 Upgrades
2 Operations


Third booster we can see (one card was already drafted from this)
Tyrant
Government Contracts
trick of light
power grid overload
caduceus
emergency response team
3 more ice (one looks like ice wall, I think the others are archer & draco)

Which makes
1 Agenda (3 points)
5 ICE
2 Operations
1 upgrade

So these boosters don't really fit my first guess. But they aren't too distant. 1-2 agendas. 4-6 ICE.
Each time there is at least one operation and one upgrade/asset.
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Sebastian Zarzycki
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You got that spread right. But I think that there's more to this and we might never now. There's nothing stopping them from assigning internal "weight" points to each card and the balance the single draw within that weight value. Similarly, some cards might be flagged to "happen more often or less often" when other card is also there.
 
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Lluluien
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rattkin wrote:
You got that spread right. But I think that there's more to this and we might never now. There's nothing stopping them from assigning internal "weight" points to each card and the balance the single draw within that weight value. Similarly, some cards might be flagged to "happen more often or less often" when other card is also there.


There are ways of finding this kind of thing out too, but they all involve way more data than I think we can hope to collect on datapacks draft packs, in large part because the easiest time to collect the data is after the draft is over. That's not the data we need though - we need what the packs look like right before it starts, which is a pretty significant PITA.
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John Thornby
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The cards must be weighted in some way in order to "balance" a pack. If every pack had 1 great card, 8 middle of the road and 1 junk then the first pick would be a no-brainer and the junk would always be left to last. It actually makes the draft more interesting if more of the cards in one pack are a powerhouse - because you can only select one!

Anyone ever play 7 Wonders and found all the science (green) or military (red) cards in the same hand? It totally changes the dynamic of a draft.
 
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Marius Ødegård
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So we're roughly looking at..

Corp:
4-6 ice
1-2 agendas (2-4 points in total)
1-4 Asset/Upgrade/Operation

Runner:

3 Programs (2 breakers)
3 Hardware
1-4 Events/Assets/Resources

With the note that we have very little data on runner boosters?
 
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Derrick Billings
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I seem to recall seeing somewhere that when they built the uber-cube the Draft Packs are drawn from, that they assigned the cards varying rarity based on power level.
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James Ryan
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Grimwalker wrote:
I seem to recall seeing somewhere that when they built the uber-cube the Draft Packs are drawn from, that they assigned the cards varying rarity based on power level.


Take a deep breath. Close your eyes. Empty your mind. And tell us, where did you see this?

Where. Is. THE UBER-CUBE?
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Keith Searfoss
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After having played in an 8-player draft at World's, most of the packs did seem similar in their card distribution, but there were a few that were far beyond the norm. One of our corp draft packs had an "uber-agenda" sub-pack, with 8 of the 10 cards being agendas, and one of the runner packs had a "money" sub-pack with 6-8 (not sure on the total) economy cards in it.

The only other stand-out thing that I noticed was that Force of Nature was in three of the four sub-packs in my own runner pack, but that was probably just the algorithm's sense of humor coming through.

I like the idea of there being these "random" outside the norm sub-packs. It means, every once in a while, some really interesting decisions will need to be made.
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Caitlin Huxley
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single doubt wrote:
The only other stand-out thing that I noticed was that Force of Nature was in three of the four sub-packs in my own runner pack


And somehow I ended up getting stuck with 4 of them. jerks.
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single doubt wrote:
After having played in an 8-player draft at World's, most of the packs did seem similar in their card distribution, but there were a few that were far beyond the norm. One of our corp draft packs had an "uber-agenda" sub-pack, with 8 of the 10 cards being agendas, and one of the runner packs had a "money" sub-pack with 6-8 (not sure on the total) economy cards in it.

The only other stand-out thing that I noticed was that Force of Nature was in three of the four sub-packs in my own runner pack, but that was probably just the algorithm's sense of humor coming through.

I like the idea of there being these "random" outside the norm sub-packs. It means, every once in a while, some really interesting decisions will need to be made.
I think that the fact you can build any wacky deck you want for play (5 or more copies of a card in a deck) their doesn't have to be some type of pattern to it all. It's just random cards all thrown in.
 
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Brad Gravett
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Just got my draft packs yesterday. Here's the list and order to help people figure out if there's a pattern:

Runner 1.01 Morning Star Fracter
Runner 1.02 Networking Event
Runner 1.03 Imp Program
Runner 1.04 Dyson Mem Chip Hardware
Runner 1.05 The Helpful AI Resource
Runner 1.06 Magnum Opus Program - Economy 2 of
Runner 1.07 Special Order Event
Runner 1.08 Gordian Blade Decoder
Runner 1.09 Plascrete Carapace Hardware
Runner 1.10 Easy Mark Event - Economy

Runner 2.01 Force of Nature Decoder
Runner 2.02 Infiltration Event
Runner 2.03 Datasucker Program 2 of
Runner 2.04 Grimoire Hardware 1 of
Runner 2.05 Decoy Resource 2 of
Runner 2.06 Underworld Contacts Resource - Economy
Runner 2.07 Deep Thought Program
Runner 2.08 Replicator Hardware
Runner 2.09 Inside Man Resource - Economy
Runner 2.10 Corroder Fracter 2 of

Runner 3.01 Peacock Decoder
Runner 3.02 Sure Gamble Event - Economy
Runner 3.03 Crescentus Program
Runner 3.04 Lemuria Codecracker Hardware 2 of
Runner 3.05 Data Dealer Resource - Economy 1 of
Runner 3.06 Underworld Contacts Resource - Economy
Runner 3.07 Inside Man Resource - Economy
Runner 3.08 Cortez Chip Hardware
Runner 3.09 The Maker's Eye Event
Runner 3.10 Force of Nature Decoder

Runner 4.01 Wyrm AI breaker 2 of
Runner 4.02 Test Run Event
Runner 4.03 Nerve Agent Program
Runner 4.04 Rabbit Hole Hardware 2 of
Runner 4.05 Data Dealer Resource - Economy 1 of
Runner 4.06 Sure Gamble Event - Economy
Runner 4.07 Xanadu Resource
Runner 4.08 Imp Program
Runner 4.09 Dinosaurus Hardware
Runner 4.10 The Toolbox Hardware 1 of

Corp 1.01 Project Vitruvius Agenda
Corp 1.02 Burke Bugs Sentry
Corp 1.03 Neural Katana Sentry
Corp 1.04 Janus 1.0 Sentry
Corp 1.05 Bernice Mai Upgrade
Corp 1.06 SEA Source Operation 2 of
Corp 1.07 Pop-up Window Ice - Economy
Corp 1.08 Closed Accounts Operation 2 of
Corp 1.09 Viktor 1.0 Code Gate 2 of
Corp 1.10 Sensei Code Gate

Corp 2.01 False Lead Agenda
Corp 2.02 Pop-up Window Ice - Economy
Corp 2.03 Uroboros Sentry
Corp 2.04 Burke Bugs Sentry
Corp 2.05 Snare! Asset - Ambush
Corp 2.06 Closed Accounts Operation 2 of
Corp 2.07 Corporate War Agenda - Economy
Corp 2.08 Private Contracts Asset - Economy
Corp 2.09 Enigma Code Gate
Corp 2.10 Neural Katana Sentry

Corp 3.01 Government Contracts Agenda - Economy
Corp 3.02 Tyrant Barrier
Corp 3.03 Wall of Static Barrier
Corp 3.04 Chum Code Gate 2 of
Corp 3.05 Edge of World Asset - Ambush
Corp 3.06 Closed Accounts Operation 2 of
Corp 3.07 Data Raven Sentry
Corp 3.08 Wall of Static Barrier
Corp 3.09 Janus 1.0 Sentry
Corp 3.10 Security Subcontract Asset 1 of

Corp 4.01 Posted Bounty Agenda 2 of
Corp 4.02 Rototurret Sentry 2 of
Corp 4.03 TMI Barrier
Corp 4.04 Eli 1.0 Barrier
Corp 4.05 Red Herrings Upgrade 2 of
Corp 4.06 Scorched Earth Operation 2 of
Corp 4.07 Eve Campaign Asset - Economy
Corp 4.08 Zaibatsu Loyalty Asset 1 of
Corp 4.09 Nisei MK II Agenda
Corp 4.10 Heimdall 1.0 Barrier 2 of


Initial thoughts and observations:
Each Runner booster leads with a random Icebreaker, followed by an Event.
Each Corp booster leads with a random Agenda, followed by a piece of Ice.
Each booster has at least one card that's a pretty obvious economy card. Not sure if this is intentional; it's entirely possible that the amount of "economy" cards in the game makes this statistically likely.
Outside of that, the distribution seems to be pretty random. Only one Rabbit Hole! Sometimes there are Icebreakers and Agendas within each booster in addition to the lead cards. A lot of duplicates, but fortunately no duplicates within each booster.
No killers amongst the Runner boosters, but the corp has plenty of sentries. I'm willing to be that there's actually a lot of randomness in booster construction, since we have starter packs to provide a modicum of versatility.
Woo! Got a Grimoire! Lots of 1-ofs and 2-ofs from the core set, including good ones like Grimoire and Zaibatsu Loyalty. It feels very much like opening a randomized blind-purchase booster. But then, two Data Dealers! http://www.failhorns.com/
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Xerxes Praelor
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As far as I can tell, the formula is something like:

Corp:
Agenda
Ice
Ice
Ice
Asset/Upgrade
Operation
Anything
Anything
Anything

while the runner is

Icebreaker
Event
Other Program
Hardware
Resource
Anything
Anything
Anything
Anything
Anything

Probably there's a weighting as well, because Force of Nature is more common than Gordian Blade, but I bet that's their base setup.
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Mychal
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Interesting that you're not guaranteed at least one each of killer, decoder, and fracter programs, so occasionally you will really be relying on those copies of Crypsis in the starter pack.
swankidelic wrote:
Outside of that, the distribution seems to be pretty random. Only one Rabbit Hole! Sometimes there are Icebreakers and Agendas within each booster in addition to the lead cards. A lot of duplicates, but fortunately no duplicates within each booster.

I believe there can be duplicate cards in them, but I'm not entirely positive. I know I saw a duplicate in the Team Covenant draft video, but I also remember someone in that video drawing the wrong number of cards in one of their booster hands...
 
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Ernie Barrett
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If these packs are just 10 cards, why are they $10 vs the starter thats only like $5? Or are you getting multiple 10 card packs for the $10?
 
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James W
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ErnieB wrote:
If these packs are just 10 cards, why are they $10 vs the starter thats only like $5? Or are you getting multiple 10 card packs for the $10?


Draft packs are comprised of 40 cards.

http://www.fantasyflightgames.com/edge_news.asp?eidn=4674
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Brad Gravett
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Right, a draft pack is 40 cards, and the official draft rules say to draft 10 cards at a time. The rules also refer a group of 10 draft cards as a "booster", which may be a little wonky but whatevs. So, a draft pack has four boosters in it.

Above I listed 1 Runner draft pack and 1 Corp draft pack, and just spaced them out into boosters for convenience's sake. The organization of the draft packs seem to pivot around boosters, too.
 
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Rafał Kruczek
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These attempts to do reverse engineering of algorithm may be good,but you should rather make list of all cards in draft packs first. Then estimate their relative frequency and order.
But I have a feeling. Print run for these packs isn't probaly very high and they do then in-house by "specialized randomizing automaton" (aka intern)
So seeking pseudo-random patterns is will be fruitless.
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Ernie Barrett
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rafal100 wrote:
These attempts to do reverse engineering of algorithm may be good,but you should rather make list of all cards in draft packs first.


Has anyone started compiling a list so the total pool of possible cards will be known?
 
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ErnieB wrote:
rafal100 wrote:
These attempts to do reverse engineering of algorithm may be good,but you should rather make list of all cards in draft packs first.


Has anyone started compiling a list so the total pool of possible cards will be known?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=netrunner+draft+cyber+war+list
 
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Ernie Barrett
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Deebs wrote:
ErnieB wrote:
rafal100 wrote:
These attempts to do reverse engineering of algorithm may be good,but you should rather make list of all cards in draft packs first.


Has anyone started compiling a list so the total pool of possible cards will be known?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=netrunner+draft+cyber+war+list


awesome, thx!
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Beyer
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zptzwPqZcW0&list=UU9gPptRMHHE...

One of the forum regulars posted a draft video. Might be some interesting stuff in there as well.
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Steven Tu
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I'm interested in this. Would be nice to be able to figure out a process to put together draft packs of our own in our own circles with, say, spare core set components, or own cardpool, or whatever.

Dislike non-standard backs of the digital print process. Mumble groan.
 
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Tim Vaduva
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rafal100 wrote:
These attempts to do reverse engineering of algorithm may be good,but you should rather make list of all cards in draft packs first. Then estimate their relative frequency and order.


This ^

My guess is that along with an ICE, agenda, ICE breaker, etc. per pack distribution, each card has a rarity. I believe FFG has assigned each card a rare/uncommon/common rarity depending on power level and/or unique affect. This seems to be true for their Game of Thrones draft packs.

If we keep a list of the cards BEFORE they are drafted we can all get a pretty good idea of which cards are which rarity (and I think the rare/uncommons are in the same spots, either at the end or beginning depending on how you draw them from the pack). Or after a draft, if we get a count of each card and record the number of players/packs, we should have a pretty good idea as well. I'd expect with a 4-person draft that we would get the following counts/copies for each rarity of cards:

Rare: 1-2
Uncommon: 3-5
Common: 6-8

Randomness would definitely skew some of the numbers, so more data would help.
 
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Chris Hinkes
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I had intended to take a picture of my starting 10 during our draft last weekend, but got caught up in the excitement and completely forgot.
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