Recommend
 
 Thumb up
 Hide
7 Posts

Zombicide» Forums » General

Subject: Some calculations on spawn cards rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Bein hart
Germany
flag msg tools
Hey Guys,
my kickstarter set has finally arrived. Out of curiosity I made some calculations for the different spawn card sets.

I looked at 1) the chance that a certain zombie-type spawns with the drawing of a card (spawn likelihood) and 2) the average number of this zombie type, if it spawns (spawn density).

I made 3x 2 tables, for i) the original unchanged zombicide spawn deck, for ii) the unchanged PO spawn deck and iii) for an arbitrary mix oft he PO spawn cards with TCM, dogz etc. (see below).

Note however, that these calculations always base on a complete set and do not consider cards that have been already drawn. If all extra activation cards have been drawn already in the blue phase, the chance of an extra activation in the higher danger levels is of course 0%, not 10% (as e.g. in table1).
Futher I counted "sewer" cards as there were only one sewer (single spawn).


---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1: Basic Zombicide Spawn Deck (#1-#42, in total 42 cards)

blue yellow orange red

24% 00% 00% 00% No spawn
00% 10% 10% 10% extra act.

62% 62% 40% 45% Walker
05% 24% 33% 26% Runner
07% 02% 14% 17% Fatty
02% 02% 02% 02% Abomination
----------------------
1.15 2.38 3.82 6.05 Walker
1.00 1.30 2.29 2.82 Runner
1.00 1.00 1.33 2.71 Fatty
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Abomination

Top: Spawn likelihood.
Bottom: Spawn density. average number.

E.g. at orange danger level there is a 40% chance that Walkers will spawn. if so. the average number of Walkers for each spawn will be 3.82 Walkers.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2: Prison Outbreak basic Spawn Deck (#79 to #120. in total 42 cards)

blue yellow orange red

24% 00% 00% 00% No spawn
00% 10% 10% 10% extra activation

40% 43% 24% 29% Walker
00% 17% 24% 21% Runner
05% 00% 12% 10% Fatty
02% 02% 02% 02% Abomination
19% 17% 14% 14% Walker (B)
05% 05% 07% 07% Runner (B)
02% 05% 05% 05% Fatty (B)
02% 02% 02% 02% Abom. (B)
----------------
1.06 2.22 3.40 6.00 Walker
0.00 1.14 2.20 2.67 Runner
1.00 0.00 1.20 2.00 Fatty
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Abomination
1.25 2.57 4.17 6.17 Walker (B)
1.00 1.50 2.33 3.33 Runner (B)
1.00 1.50 2.50 3.50 Fatty (B)
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Abom. (B)

Top: Spawn likelihood.
Bottom: Spawn density, average number.

E.g. The chance for berserker Walkers (Walker (B)) is at blue 19% and drops towards red to 14%; the average number of berserker Walkers increase tremendously from average 1.25 at blue to 6.17 berserker Walkers at red danger level for each Walker (B) spawn.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 3: Extra cards shuffled into the PO spawn deck: cards from PO, TCM, 1x Dogz*, 1x Walk oft he dead*, kickstarter 2 (#43 to #144, 102 cards in total)

blue yellow orange red

22% 00% 00% 00% No Spawn
00% 08% 08% 08% extra activation

35% 37% 28% 30% Walker
01% 12% 15% 13% Runner
04% 01% 07% 08% Fatty
01% 01% 01% 01% Abomination
06% 06% 06% 05% Dogz
11% 11% 09% 10% Walker (T)
03% 03% 05% 04% Runner (T)
01% 03% 03% 03% Fatty (T)
01% 01% 01% 01% Abom. (T)
11% 11% 09% 09% Walker (B)
03% 03% 04% 05% Runner (B)
01% 03% 04% 03% Fatty (B)
01% 01% 01% 01% Abom. (B)
--------------
1.25 2.42 3.93 6.10 Walker
1.00 1.42 2.27 2.92 Runner
1.00 1.00 1.43 2.38 Fatty
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Abomination
1.17 2.33 3.67 5.40 Dogs
1.27 2.91 4.33 6.70 Walker (T)
1.00 1.33 2.20 3.25 Runner (T)
1.00 1.33 2.00 3.33 Fatty (T)
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Abom. (T)
1.27 2.91 4.33 6.56 Walker (B)
1.00 1.33 2.50 3.40 Runner (B)
1.00 1.33 1.75 3.33 Fatty (B)
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Abom. (B)

Top: Spawn likelihood.
Bottom: Spawn density, average number.

* Dogz and Wotd came with 3 times the same card sets, here I used only one pile.

E.g. The spawn chance and spawn density of berserker and toxic zombies are pretty much balanced. The chance for overall spawning toxic or berserker zombies is 31% (blue) and 35% (yellow, orange and red, as calculated with the sum of all (T) and (B)).

In average over all zombietypes there spawn 1.07 (blue), 1.64 (yellow), 2.41 (orange), and 3.67 (red) Zombies-figures with each spawn card.


Edit: in the last calculation I did not take into account that Fatties spawn with 2 Walkers, so the line with fatties should be multiplied by 3.
The correct numbers are: 1.25 (blue), 1.79 (yellow), 2.61 (orange), and 4.02 (red).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope this is a bit interesting for you. If you want to have calculated another combination of spawn cards, let me know, I can post it here.

(These are the card sets I have: Zombicide basic set = #1 to #42; Walk oft he dead = 3x #43 to #54; Zombie dogz = 3x #55 to #66; TCM = cards #67 to #78; PO = cars #79 to #120; Kickstarter 2 = #121 to #144).

Edit:
I dont know if it is possible here, but if sb. could tell me how to make neat tables in this forum, I would do so .
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Peter Cooper
United Kingdom
flag msg tools
Mage Wars: Beastmaster's Pet
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Thank you. The most useful information is "what might come next" and that depends on how many cards you've already turned over (turned over 30 cards and had none of the extra turn cards yet? Oh, dear) but it's a useful list.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Angelus Seniores
Belgium
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
maybe a clarification, all the boxes of zombies include 3 sets of their spawn cards as to accomodate different language editions, but you would normally only use 1 set.
the cards 121 till 144 are those of the walk of the dead 2, angry zombies and toxic zombies boxes.

its nice to see the statistics of the spawns, it also shows some strange ones like no normal runner spawns at blue in PO, and no normal fatty spawns at yellow.

edit: a question, did you take into account that fatties spawn with 2 walkers each? i'm not sure how those would alter the numbers.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Bein hart
Germany
flag msg tools
@Peter
Yes, the question „what might come next“ is the trhilling one and should not be spoiled .
I just did this calculations to get an overview. Of course, it wont help much in game to predict what’s next.

@Angelus
Haha, this explains why my last game in which I used all three wotd piles was so terribly full of walkers only . Thx for clarification.

And no, I didn’t took into account that Fatties spawn with two Walkers.

i) This wont affect the spawn chances (except that if a Fattie spawns of course also Walkers come along).

ii) It further wont affect the average numbers of the zombie-type on the spawning card; but if in average 1.75 Fatties (B) spawn (like e.g. in orange in the last table), this would mean that also 3.5 Walkers come along (2x 1.75).

But good that you mention it, the total number of Zombie-Figures on the board will be raised by that, so that just averaging the lower tables for each danger level is not enough; the row of he fatties must be multiplied by 3.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Scott Hill
United Kingdom
Cambridge
Cambridgeshire
flag msg tools
designer
badge
mbmbmbmbmb
For related, but different, zombie cards stats, see my Zombicide Zombie Card Stats in the Files section...
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Magnus Rydin
Sweden
Helsingborg
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
@Ben: where are you at?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Bein hart
Germany
flag msg tools
Who is Ben?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.