Recommend
1 
 Thumb up
 Hide
18 Posts

The Resistance» Forums » Strategy

Subject: 9 players Res wins by sending the same team. rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Ben B
Canada
flag msg tools
Hi,
playing with 9 people last night (no Plot Cards) we ran into a bit of a snag.

With nine players and three spies, there is a 66% chance that the first Leader is not a spy. Let's assume this is me. I pick two people for the first mission, making sure that neither of the two people to my left are included, and put myself on as the third. If all else is equal, there is a greater than 50% chance that there are no spies on the team (3/8 for the first pick, 3/7 for the second).

We vote it through, and the mission succeeds. Leadership passes to the left. As the Resistance, we then refuse to pass a team that doesn't include the original 3 plus the new Leader. If the Leader picks a new team, they are likely a spy and are outing themselves, and it gets voted down anyway by Resistance members toeing the party line. So the second Leader is logically cowed into sending that team. If the mission succeeds, which it should at least 50% of the time (down to 3/6 chance that the second Leader is not a spy), it's a done deal. The Resistance forces the next Leader to send that exact same team for the third mission (which also requires 4 people) and it succeeds too.

So with 9 players and this strategy, two-thirds of all games have a 50% chance of a Resistance sweep right from the get-go (33.3%). The game gets fun the second this strategy gets derailed, but I feel like this pattern should be the default go-to for the Resistance. And the numbers make it boring. This happened to us twice in a row, so we upped the third mission to 5 members so that we couldn't just send the same team twice. (I forget what exactly happened after that (likely spies won), but it was sure as hell a lot more fun when this scenario came up again and the tension on the third mission went through the roof.)

Am I missing something, or is this just an accepted mechanic in the game? Is there a flaw in this voting strategy for the resistance?
Thanks!
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Pasi Ojala
Finland
Tampere
flag msg tools
Get the Imperial Assault Campaign module for Vassal from http://www.vassalengine.org/wiki/Module:Star_Wars:_Imperial_Assault
badge
The next Total Solar Eclipse holiday in 2024 in USA? See you there!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
You're missing the fact that a spy would strongly consider floating the first mission (submitting Success). So, even if M2 fails, you don't know if it was because the leader was a spy or one of the 3 on M1 were a spy. There might've even been two spies on M1 who floated..

Also, if you always go for this, then a spy m2 leader would just float, then fail m3 and you get no new information.

There is no fixed strategy that works in Resistance, that is why it is so much fun. It evolves from game to game, from group to group.


Of course some games are decided by the seating order. That can not be overcome by strategy.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Rusty McFisticuffs
United States
Arcata
California
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Borkbork wrote:
If the Leader picks a new team, they are likely a spy and are outing themselves, and it gets voted down anyway by Resistance members toeing the party line. So the second Leader is logically cowed into sending that team.

No way--if I'm that second leader, there's no way I'm agreeing to that, because there are good odds that one of the original three is a spy, and when they fail the mission, everyone will point to me as the new variable. I'll pick my own team, thanks; if it gets voted down and leadership passes to the next player, at least we learned something from the votes.
5 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Ben B
Canada
flag msg tools
Thanks for the feedback! I guess the flaw is that even if you win one of every three games following this strategy, you are much less likely to win the remaining two-thirds.

I was thinking that if you started with a guaranteed 33% win rate, you could likely salvage another 20% of games and come out with a winning average, even if the strategy is boring and just a brute force mechanic. But it falls apart because the later missions are being picked with too little information. You learn too little too late in the game. The numbers become stacked against the Res because they are picking teams pretty much blind (assuming the players are at least decent at playing spies).

Cool, thanks. And yes, it's the lack of a single winning strategy that keeps it fun! I had myself worried for a second there...
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Cameron McKenzie
United States
Atlanta
Georgia
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Your math is off - you are much more than 50% likely to pick a spy on the first mission.

If you choose three arbitrary players to go on the first mission, your chance of picking at least one spy is at least 75%.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kjetil Svendsen
Norway
Oslo
flag msg tools
badge
My Secret Santa is the best!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
The probability that you pick two members of the Resistance for the first mission is only 36% (5/8 * 4/7 = 35.7)
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kevin B.
United States
Groton
Connecticut
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I feel that when you start bringing math and statistics into a game of Resistance, the you are really ruining the experience.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Agent J
United States
Coldwater
Michigan
flag msg tools
He's looking real sharp in his 1940's fedora. He's got nerves of steel, an iron will, and several other metal-themed attributes. His fur is water tight and he's always up for a fight.
badge
He's a semi-aquatic egg-laying mammal of action. He's a furry little flat-foot who'll never flinch from a fray. He's got more than just mad skills, he's got a beaver tail and a bill.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
WrittenZero wrote:
I feel that when you start bringing math and statistics into a game of Resistance, the you are really ruining the experience.


It's simple probabilities that I assume everyone knows as a baseline before they begin playing. IE, if you choose randomly, you're going to choose wrong in all probability, so choosing randomly is a losing strategy and you have to create opportunities and pick up on cues about other's roles in order to win.

6/9 chance the leader is not a spy.
*
5/8 chance the next guy is not a spy.
*
4/7 chance the next guy is not a spy.

120/504

24% chance that this happens randomly.

Even if I know one of those people is not a spy, namely me, then the chances are actually higher that the guy picking is a spy, because a spy is more likely to pick rebels than spies.

Also, if I'm a spy, I pick you 3 passers and the 4th guy, fail it, and scream about someone ducking mission 1. And if I'm one of the 3 that passed the first mission, I'm saying that the new guy definitely failed it and we should stick with the original 3... So yeah, maybe you get lucky and have 4 rebels in a row but in that case you'll be lucky to get that first mission passed anyway.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Richard Sampson
United States
Bothell
Washington
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
WrittenZero wrote:
I feel that when you start bringing math and statistics into a game of Resistance, the you are really ruining the experience.
Especially when the math isn't even right.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kirk Monsen
United States
Seattle
Washington
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
While not the same situation, but similar, in a 6 player game, the leader picked the player to his left, mission was success. New leader picked old team (himself, and player to right), plus player to his left, mission was success. New leader followed suit with last team, plus player to his left, and the mission failed. The assumption is the new person is the traitor. Turned out the first mission team leader was the traitor, and he passed twice. The other traitor had not been selected for a mission.

Just because a mission passes does not mean a traitor is not in that group.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Rusty McFisticuffs
United States
Arcata
California
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Borkbork wrote:
With nine players and three spies, there is a 66% chance that the first Leader is not a spy. Let's assume this is me

THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT A SPY WOULD SAY
10 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Adam Lucas
Canada
Belleville
Ontario
flag msg tools
It's a perfect day for some mayhem!
badge
It's a perfect day for some mayhem!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
The usual consensus in my group (which I try to break) is that spies on the first mission will pass it and hope to win the later games [I usually play this at 6-7]. Now at nine players you're going to have enough spies so that each spy can fail one mission, so letting that first mission succeed may not be required.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kirk Monsen
United States
Seattle
Washington
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Svengaard wrote:
The usual consensus in my group (which I try to break) is that spies on the first mission will pass it and hope to win the later games [I usually play this at 6-7]. Now at nine players you're going to have enough spies so that each spy can fail one mission, so letting that first mission succeed may not be required.


There was a player in the game this weekend who was insisting if a spy was in the first mission, he should fail it. We were both spies. He was the leader for the first mission, and failed it. I was the leader for the second mission, selected players not in the first, and failed that. The resistance had no hope putting together a successful team for the third mission.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kenneth H
United States
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
My group has gone the longest time not winning that first mission. I'd agree that there is plenty of merit to laying low, but our spies haven't really felt the need to, and it's been working out for them for the most part. Our Resistance needs more vigorous hiring policies.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Adam Lucas
Canada
Belleville
Ontario
flag msg tools
It's a perfect day for some mayhem!
badge
It's a perfect day for some mayhem!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I can't even begin to think how you would start putting together teams at nine players, let alone the first mission. Would anyone be able to post a few generic pointers? For the record, I play Avalon a lot more than Resistance and I've never played with a group that large.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Rolf Buchner
msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Svengaard wrote:
I can't even begin to think how you would start putting together teams at nine players, let alone the first mission. Would anyone be able to post a few generic pointers? For the record, I play Avalon a lot more than Resistance and I've never played with a group that large.


Vote no, a lot. The more votes you see the more information you have. If someone votes off-mission, pounce on them and ask them why.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Clyde W
United States
Washington
Dist of Columbia
flag msg tools
Red Team
badge
#YOLO
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Svengaard wrote:
I can't even begin to think how you would start putting together teams at nine players, let alone the first mission. Would anyone be able to post a few generic pointers? For the record, I play Avalon a lot more than Resistance and I've never played with a group that large.
Out yourself as Merlin. Force the spies into a WIFOM scenario. Hope that they think you're Percy and you got a signal from Real Merlin.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Eugene Wong
Canada
Surrey
BC
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
kuhrusty wrote:
No way--if I'm that second leader, there's no way I'm agreeing to that, because there are good odds that one of the original three is a spy, and when they fail the mission, everyone will point to me as the new variable. I'll pick my own team, thanks; if it gets voted down and leadership passes to the next player, at least we learned something from the votes.


I agree. I thought about this in the last few hours. If the spies are succeeding the mission, then they intend to fail the second. After all, are they going to succeed the second mission, and then aim for 3 fails in a row? What would be the point?

It's pointless to force a successful vote on M1.1. After all, the spies are most likely on the team, and they will most likely fail the second mission. Resistance players should let the leadership token go to at least 2 or more players, unless there is a good excuse.

A resistance player just going with the same team would be like a resistance member saying, "Okay, so we agree that as long as the spies succeed the fist mission, then we'll let them fail the second mission, right?"

The point of the first round and every other round is to prevent the spies from ever getting a foothold. Put it this way: if the spies are on the first mission, then they will use that to build trust for the other missions. It never seemed more obvious to me until I really thought about it.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.