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Subject: The Myth of Red State Welfare rss

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jeremy cobert
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I keep seeing this myth repeated here on RSP perpetrated by a few of the choice leftists here on RSP, I am glad someone has finally addressed this myth.

Quote:
To show how mindless this liberal proposition is, the "red state welfare" argument appears to be entirely based only on how each state voted in the most recent presidential election. This results in entirely junk science.


http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/the_myth_of_red_state...

 
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jeremycobert wrote:
I keep seeing this myth repeated here on RSP perpetrated by a few of the choice leftists here on RSP, I am glad someone has finally addressed this myth.

Quote:
To show how mindless this liberal proposition is, the "red state welfare" argument appears to be entirely based only on how each state voted in the most recent presidential election. This results in entirely junk science.


http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/the_myth_of_red_state...



The author cheats.

Sierra Rayne is redefining 'Red State' (an admittedly vague term to start with, I'll grant) as not "How the state voted in the Electoral College in the last cycle" but "Sum total of all state level elected officials since 1980."

That's the cheat. Many states, like Mississippi, in 1980 were Dixiecrats. Since the 1980's, they have firmly moved into the Republican camp. However, Mr. Rayne insists on arguing that since 62% of the 'person-years' for state representatives in Mississippi were 'Democrat', the state isn't a 'Red State', but is rather a 'Blue state'.

Secondly, he cherry picks the data. If a state ever votes a majority of Democratic 'person-years' in any of the four categories of elected office that he lists, its not a true 'Red State'. Thus Mississippi, despite never voted for a Democratic President, only 13% of the time voted for a Democratic Senator, and only 47% of the time had a Democratic Governor, isn't a 'real' Red state because 62% of the time (since 1980, when the Democrats had a lock on the state), they had Democratic representatives.

Really-
As I said earlier, I'll grant that the definition of 'Red State' being tied solely to how it voted in the last Electoral College is a bit weak, but come on. There is no way that Mississippi, Alaska, West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky (five of the 10 'Top Welfare Red States) can't be classified as 'Red State'- or at the very least, 'Pink'.

This is statistical sophistry at its most intellectually dishonest.

Darilian
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Darilian wrote:

This is statistical sophistry at its most intellectually dishonest.

Darilian


You could almost say it is "entirely junk science"
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Darilian wrote:
If a state ever votes a majority of Democratic 'person-years' in any of the four categories of elected office that he lists, its not a true 'Red State'.


Sort of the equivalent of the "one drop of blood" theory?

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As I said earlier, I'll grant that the definition of 'Red State' being tied solely to how it voted in the last Electoral College is a bit weak, but come on.


Well, since the whole Red-Blue distinction arose in the context of presidential elections, and the TV networks' color conventions for displaying results, it's not unreasonable to look to those elections as the criterion.

In fact, until 2000, the networks had no standard colors for the parties from one cycle to the next. The color associations were fixed by pundits after the 2000 elections, when Republicans happened to be denoted red. So yes, Red States are the ones that vote Republican in presidential elections and by association tend to lean conservative, whether slightly or radically so.
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It was illuminating reading the comments for the article where they pat each other on the back for comebacks to the "Red State Welfare" reality as if them saying, "You are right, Yes let's reduce welfare!" is actually what liberals are arguing. The argument is to not characterize one party as the party of entitlement when you are probably only pointing the finger at the mirror. It may be that people in those red states honestly need government assistance and the programs are working as intended. It's the dishonesty of taking government assistance behind your back while decrying in front that liberals are pointing out as hypocritical and at cross purposes with finding solutions.
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Didn't we just cover the No True Scotsman fallacy? Someone wasn't paying attention.
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Why would you even include the House, since it's voted on in districts, and not the state as a whole?

I can see including Senators and I can see including Governors, since those are both state wide elections.
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Golux13 wrote:


Well, since the whole Red-Blue distinction arose in the context of presidential elections, and the TV networks' color conventions for displaying results, it's not unreasonable to look to those elections as the criterion.

In fact, until 2000, the networks had no standard colors for the parties from one cycle to the next. The color associations were fixed by pundits after the 2000 elections, when Republicans happened to be denoted red. So yes, Red States are the ones that vote Republican in presidential elections and by association tend to lean conservative, whether slightly or radically so.


True-
But I do think that its fair to point out that some states like New Hampshire's political culture can't really be characterized as 'Red' or 'Blue' by looking at presidential elections alone. New Hampshire is just...weird. So I'm willing to grant, for the sake of the argument, that the 'Red State/Blue State' definitions aren't sufficient- that there is a bit of nuance lost in that simplistic look.

However, while the methodology of looking at 'person-years' over time might be better, the way the author uses that definition is completely dishonest.

Darilian
 
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Shushnik wrote:

So the argument is not that those states get more funding than they pay for, which goes uncontested, but that they're not really red states.


It's American Thinker. They just haven't gotten around to the thinking part yet.
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Darilian wrote:
Golux13 wrote:


Well, since the whole Red-Blue distinction arose in the context of presidential elections, and the TV networks' color conventions for displaying results, it's not unreasonable to look to those elections as the criterion.

In fact, until 2000, the networks had no standard colors for the parties from one cycle to the next. The color associations were fixed by pundits after the 2000 elections, when Republicans happened to be denoted red. So yes, Red States are the ones that vote Republican in presidential elections and by association tend to lean conservative, whether slightly or radically so.


True-
But I do think that its fair to point out that some states like New Hampshire's political culture can't really be characterized as 'Red' or 'Blue' by looking at presidential elections alone. New Hampshire is just...weird. So I'm willing to grant, for the sake of the argument, that the 'Red State/Blue State' definitions aren't sufficient- that there is a bit of nuance lost in that simplistic look.

However, while the methodology of looking at 'person-years' over time might be better, the way the author uses that definition is completely dishonest.

Darilian


I think Ohio is kind of "weird" too. The state legislature, governor (and its related executive offices), and the majority of the state bench, are mostly Republicans, and have been for as long as I can remember. But we are also voted for Obama in the last two elections, and just sent Sherrod Brown back to DC as our Senator. I think the majority of our US House districts are Republicans, but as someone else pointed out, the House should be excluded from such discussions since that is a "district" wide rather than a "state" wide office.

On a statewide level, I would consider Ohio to be a "red state" with a tinge of purple around the urban areas, but on a national level, Ohio has been a strong "blue state" for that last three election cycles.

Here's something unique about Ohio - since 1980:

Reagan
Reagan
Bush
Clinton
Clinton
Bush
Bush
Obama
Obama

I guess we like to pick winners, regardless of the political party or the color of the map.
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Darilian wrote:
but come on. There is no way that Mississippi, Alaska, West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky (five of the 10 'Top Welfare Red States) can't be classified as 'Red State'- or at the very least, 'Pink'.
Darilian



You have unwittingly helped the argument that the red state welfare is a myth.

Virginia for example just elected a Democrat governor, so you are correct that it is a purple state along with several others.

To get to the truth, we need to examine how and when the programs were setup by the federal government to disperse this money.

LBJ's "war on poverty" set the policy to disperse federal money during the time when Republicans were out of the process. most of these states the liberals accuse of being "welfare queens" were solid for the Democrats at this time.

So from 1964 until present day, we need to look at each state and find where they voted in all elections before we can label them red/blue. the Democrat however are cherry picking to label a state red when if fits their narrative despite them being firmly blue for some 60 years.

Myth officially busted !

Stay classy my democrat friends , stay classy !

 
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Golux13 wrote:
The color associations were fixed by pundits after the 2000 elections, when Republicans happened to be denoted red.


And ensuring, once again, that the US is out of step with everyone else, where red is left (socialist or communist - no, those are not he same thing) and right is often blue.
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jeremycobert wrote:
Darilian wrote:
but come on. There is no way that Mississippi, Alaska, West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky (five of the 10 'Top Welfare Red States) can't be classified as 'Red State'- or at the very least, 'Pink'.
Darilian



You have unwittingly helped the argument that the red state welfare is a myth.

Virginia for example just elected a Democrat governor, so you are correct that it is a purple state along with several others.

To get to the truth, we need to examine how and when the programs were setup by the federal government to disperse this money.

LBJ's "war on poverty" set the policy to disperse federal money during the time when Republicans were out of the process. most of these states the liberals accuse of being "welfare queens" were solid for the Democrats at this time.

So from 1964 until present day, we need to look at each state and find where they voted in all elections before we can label them red/blue. the Democrat however are cherry picking to label a state red when if fits their narrative despite them being firmly blue for some 60 years.

Myth officially busted !

Stay classy my democrat friends , stay classy !



You're just pissy cause Ohio actually matters in presidential elections, and Iowa is just....there....like a wart.
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jeremycobert wrote:
Darilian wrote:
but come on. There is no way that Mississippi, Alaska, West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky (five of the 10 'Top Welfare Red States) can't be classified as 'Red State'- or at the very least, 'Pink'.
Darilian



You have unwittingly helped the argument that the red state welfare is a myth.

Virginia for example just elected a Democrat governor, so you are correct that it is a purple state along with several others.

To get to the truth, we need to examine how and when the programs were setup by the federal government to disperse this money.

LBJ's "war on poverty" set the policy to disperse federal money during the time when Republicans were out of the process. most of these states the liberals accuse of being "welfare queens" were solid for the Democrats at this time.

So from 1964 until present day, we need to look at each state and find where they voted in all elections before we can label them red/blue. the Democrat however are cherry picking to label a state red when if fits their narrative despite them being firmly blue for some 60 years.

Myth officially busted !

Stay classy my democrat friends , stay classy !



I find it more amusing that you and the author of the article in question use the same fallacious argument structure.

Do they give lessons on how to use 'No True Scotsman' in Conservative Trolling School?

Darilian
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galad2003 wrote:
Repeating this liberal talking point makes you Dems look stupid so pick another one please.


As someone without a horse in this race, it wasn't a Democrat who raised the issue, but rather someone from the right who raised it to attack it. The attack has been pointed out to be rubbish, but as far as this thread is concerned it's left the point as neither claimed proven nor proven.
 
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galad2003 wrote:
The whole argument is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. I know everyone is looking for a way to point out the other side is inferior in some way or another but it doesn't work. Hell the South used to be Democrat until the 60's.

Red states might receive more federal aid but they are also traditionally rural states. Rural states tend to have more expensive infrastructure costs, less economic power and more poverty. More concentrated populations lead to a higher tax base - duh.

The argument that red states receive more federal dollars is implying a causality among political leaning and federal aid when the really the causality is the rural aspect of the state.

If all those states flipped to blue it wouldn't change anything. Those states would still need more money for highways and utilities. They would still have poorer populations etc.

Repeating this liberal talking point makes you Dems look stupid so pick another one please.




Again you missed the point. It's not that they need assistance because they are Red, it's that they need more assistance than they pay into the system and yet it seems they complain about government assistance. It's not a "You need more money than us, so you are the problem" it's more of "Don't go around saying how bad it is to ask and take money from the government when you are doing MORE than your fair share of it to begin with."
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Dispaminite wrote:
You're just pissy cause Ohio actually matters in presidential elections, and Iowa is just....there....like a wart.


Yes, but we are the first wart , so we are special, sort of like the first time you failed your HPV test !

Stay classy my bitter freinds, stay classy !

 
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jeremycobert wrote:
... sort of like the first time you failed your HPV test !

Stay classy...



Oh the delicious irony.
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jeremycobert wrote:
Dispaminite wrote:
You're just pissy cause Ohio actually matters in presidential elections, and Iowa is just....there....like a wart.


Yes, but we are the first wart , so we are special, sort of like the first time you failed your HPV test !

Stay classy my bitter freinds, stay classy !


Why do you assume I failed?

And it's true, Iowa is first....like that slow child you give a head start to so they feel good about themselves. The rest of us just pat you on the head and say "good job"
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Dispaminite wrote:
Why do you assume I failed?


For the same reason I assume you had sex with a consenting human, It was a joke. I don't actually believe either of those things have happened.

Stay classy my socially awkward friends, stay classy !
 
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galad2003 wrote:
The whole argument is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. I know everyone is looking for a way to point out the other side is inferior in some way or another but it doesn't work. Hell the South used to be Democrat until the 60's.

Red states might receive more federal aid but they are also traditionally rural states. Rural states tend to have more expensive infrastructure costs, less economic power and more poverty. More concentrated populations lead to a higher tax base - duh.

The argument that red states receive more federal dollars is implying a causality among political leaning and federal aid when the really the causality is the rural aspect of the state.

If all those states flipped to blue it wouldn't change anything. Those states would still need more money for highways and utilities. They would still have poorer populations etc.

Repeating this liberal talking point makes you Dems look stupid so pick another one please.




Amen. While Jeremy's refutation of the point is (predictably) retarded, it's a nonsense point to begin with. It's not hypocritical for "red states" to take government money--the money is already allocated and assigned to those programs. It's already spent. They don't have to like the programs, but they'd be foolish not to take the money. That's not even the point, though.

It's entirely possible (and we see it all the time) for someone who is generally opposed to "big government" to readily exclude their piece of the pie from that heading. There are plenty of conservative farmers out there who would have a fit if you wanted to kill the ludicrously expensive farm subsidies. There are plenty of folks drawing disability checks who look down on the welfare crowd because they see a big distinction between being unable to work and being unable to find work. That's not the point either, though.

No, the point is that by and large the voting public has next to zero control over how much money their state takes in from the feds. It's a meaningless argument to make except to score cutesy political points.
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jeremycobert wrote:
Dispaminite wrote:
Why do you assume I failed?


For the same reason I assume you had sex with a consenting human, It was a joke. I don't actually believe either of those things have happened.

Stay classy my socially awkward friends, stay classy !


Someone needs to create an internet tough guy bingo game for Jeremy as long as he's going to stick around. This could be fun.
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galad2003 wrote:
Repeating this liberal talking point makes you Dems look stupid so pick another one please.


Then you missed the entire point, which is unsurprising because..

galad2003 wrote:
The whole argument is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. I know everyone is looking for a way to point out the other side is inferior in some way or another but it doesn't work.


Wrong! This is the problem, you don't even understand WHY that is being brought up as something to talk about at all. It's not about a 'we are better than you' thing because - and he's the thing you do know but should have applied to this situation - the left doesn't actually view taking government assistance as a bad thing. Remember? So pointing out certain states take more from the government than they put in isn't an insult from our perspective.

galad2003 wrote:
Rural states tend to have more expensive infrastructure costs, less economic power and more poverty. More concentrated populations lead to a higher tax base - duh.
...
If all those states flipped to blue it wouldn't change anything. Those states would still need more money for highways and utilities. They would still have poorer populations etc.


...and that's why!

Sometimes, as in this particular case, the reason is a GOOD one, and very obvious on even casual evaluation!

So why does this get brought up at all?

Welllll...

TheChin! wrote:
Again you missed the point. It's not that they need assistance because they are Red, it's that they need more assistance than they pay into the system and yet it seems they complain about government assistance. It's not a "You need more money than us, so you are the problem" it's more of "Don't go around saying how bad it is to ask and take money from the government when you are doing MORE than your fair share of it to begin with."


That.

It's just the hypocrisy that annoys.

So some states take more from the Federal government than they pay in, and other states pay in more than they get.

So what. *I* don't care (living in a state that pays in more than it gets back). *You* shouldn't care (you've got a hell of a lot of very long roads through all those flyover states! Concrete and asphalt doesn't maintain itself...). But what you SHOULD do is stop blanket-complaining about the evils of 'government handouts' as if it was some exclusively-leftist-thing to take advantage of government funding.

That's just stupid, and makes you look stupid.

So stop doing that.
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Jesus, Xander, what a load of revisionist bullshit. You really think the facebook sound-bite liberals who toss this nonsense out have anywhere near that sort of nuanced view of what it means? Come on.
 
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djgutierrez77 wrote:
Someone needs to create an internet tough guy bingo game for Jeremy as long as he's going to stick around. This could be fun.


I miss the old days when you had to threaten someone to be called an "internet tough guy" now just fucking with someone who was trying to clown on you , gets you the label...

Stay classy my delicate snowflake friends, stay classy !
 
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