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Subject: How far can we get? rss

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Based on the crazy start of this project I assumed we can get way beyond $2M but now I'd be happy if we hit 1,5M.

What do you think, how far can we get?
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Mark De Lorenzo
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I'm wondering it it's even gonna hit 1M. There will be numerous drop outs at the end.
 
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I'd be happy with $1M...Beli'al, you're coming with me..! devil


Incidentally, if anyone happens across a second Beli'al figure that they don't want, need, desire, etc...I'd be willing to discuss terms...I think he's purty and would work well for another game...
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EnjoyRC wrote:
I'm wondering it it's even gonna hit 1M. There will be numerous drop outs at the end.


What makes you say that?
Even with all the earlier angst, MC ended up being a great deal, for the price, am even at the higher levels.
 
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WillyRapier wrote:
I'd be happy with $1M...Beli'al, you're coming with me..! devil


Incidentally, if anyone happens across a second Beli'al figure that they don't want, need, desire, etc...I'd be willing to discuss terms...I think he's purty and would work well for another game...


I want to say there was someone looking to pawn off theirs.
Check the forums here for the posting.
Cant get to nit right now, but I want t say I saw someone offering him up.
 
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After we hit 1 Million, it will be hard for my wife not to get her own Outlaw pledge!
 
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Mark De Lorenzo
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ropya wrote:
What makes you say that?
Even with all the earlier angst, MC ended up being a great deal, for the price, am even at the higher levels.

Seen it happen before. Gamers jump in on a new Kickstarter at the very beginning.. then in time they evaluate if they really want it before it closes.
 
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Plus HeroQuest starts before this one ends, so there may be a jump across to there instead. I'm certainly contemplating it.
 
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Whenever Kickstarters start offering up massive amounts of figures and such for free, the last 48 hours will generally see a huge explosion in the number of backers.

Based on the sheer magnitude of things being given away with this KS, I see it surpassing 1.25 million quite easily in the last couple days.
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blekk42 wrote:
Based on the crazy start of this project I assumed we can get way beyond $2M but now I'd be happy if we hit 1,5M.


As a heads up from someone who's becoming a bit of a Kickstarter veteran; never, ever base assumptions on a crazy start. There is often (but not always) a solid/somewhat crazy finish, but Kicktraq estimating a project getting like 5 million dollars as of day one is based on such minimal information as to be outright detrimental.

Quote:
What do you think, how far can we get?


1.5 is totally doable, depending on a couple of factors. The 1m stretch goal is solid, and we should get there in the next few days. How crazy the finale is will probably be at least in part based on factors they can control (keeping up with the next sets of stretch goals once we're potentially knocking out 25k every couple hours), and things they can't control (the HeroQuest kickstarter reportedly begins on Friday).
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EnjoyRC wrote:
ropya wrote:
What makes you say that?
Even with all the earlier angst, MC ended up being a great deal, for the price, am even at the higher levels.

Seen it happen before. Gamers jump in on a new Kickstarter at the very beginning.. then in time they evaluate if they really want it before it closes.


I'm in at an MC level, but at this point I'll be dropping if they don't sweeten the pot.

My prediction is this:

If they keep dishing out these small doses for the add-ons with nothing really spectacular, a bunch of people at MC will just decide it's too much for a game and drop out.

These dropouts will be offset by a number of people joining in at the Outlaw level within the last couple days.

So what we'll end up with is this thing stalling out at the end, instead of jumping to new heights like other KS' have done.

The only way for them to do it right, is to bang these add-ons out, but I'm unsure if they will do that. I think they may have convinced themselves that it's a really good value. Those XL creatures are overpriced, and I factor them into the price value at a much lower cost than they are asserting.

Jorune
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ropya wrote:
EnjoyRC wrote:
I'm wondering it it's even gonna hit 1M. There will be numerous drop outs at the end.


What makes you say that?
Even with all the earlier angst, MC ended up being a great deal, for the price, am even at the higher levels.


I actually agree that this is a risk.

A lot of the funding is tied up in giant pledges of roughly half a grand apiece. Losing even 10% of those backers would set the campaign back 50-100k easily. And there will be churn in those tiers; people who have been quietly sitting on a $400-480 slot who may end up deciding to drop down to Outlaw after all, or pull out entirely because the holidays are coming, or they simply can't justify the expense in general.

In a lot of campaigns where the majority of the funding comes from thousands of backers providing $100-200 apiece, it's not quite as big a deal. Here, 1/2 the backers are providing 3/4 of the funding, and it's at a significant enough price point that, as noted before, I suspect there'll be some second guessing by the time those last hours hit.

Great deal or not, roughly half a grand (give or take international S&H) is a very significant chunk of change.
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Forar wrote:
ropya wrote:
EnjoyRC wrote:
I'm wondering it it's even gonna hit 1M. There will be numerous drop outs at the end.


What makes you say that?
Even with all the earlier angst, MC ended up being a great deal, for the price, am even at the higher levels.


I actually agree that this is a risk.

A lot of the funding is tied up in giant pledges of roughly half a grand apiece. Losing even 10% of those backers would set the campaign back 50-100k easily. And there will be churn in those tiers; people who have been quietly sitting on a $400-480 slot who may end up deciding to drop down to Outlaw after all, or pull out entirely because the holidays are coming, or they simply can't justify the expense in general.

In a lot of campaigns where the majority of the funding comes from thousands of backers providing $100-200 apiece, it's not quite as big a deal. Here, 1/2 the backers are providing 3/4 of the funding, and it's at a significant enough price point that, as noted before, I suspect there'll be some second guessing by the time those last hours hit.

Great deal or not, roughly half a grand (give or take international S&H) is a very significant chunk of change.


While I agree with your points, the Outlaw pledge is a very good bargain, and will very likely quite easily offset the number of higher pledges should a significant number of those drop out.

I still think this will see a huge surge at the end, simply because the sweet spot pledge is an incredible deal, and offers up a ton of stuff for a reasonable price.

Don't underestimate the amount of free plastic given away for free as an extremely viable enticement.
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Ghool wrote:
While I agree with your points, the Outlaw pledge is a very good bargain, and will very likely quite easily offset the number of higher pledges should a significant number of those drop out.

I still think this will see a huge surge at the end, simply because the sweet spot pledge is an incredible deal, and offers up a ton of stuff for a reasonable price.

Don't underestimate the amount of free plastic given away for free as an extremely viable enticement.


The main issue becomes needing 3 new Outlaws for every MC that drops out, or 2 new ones for every MC6-8'ish that drops down to Outlaw just to break even, and whether those kinds of numbers show up, let alone remain sustainable.

There's a LOT of funding wrapped up in a smaller pool of people.

I do agree with you that there'll likely be a surge either way, it'll be more an issue of how such shifting/dropping tempers it. Maybe it'll be "a hundred grand an hour omg!" or "err, we're constantly changing backer numbers, but not really progressing anywhere".

Having just seen Mars Attacks backslide in their final days apparently in part due to AvP's KS launching, it's not something I entirely take for granted. Not to say that it'll happen here, of course, just that it'll be something on people's minds, as it only happened recently.
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Forar wrote:
And there will be churn in those tiers; people who have been quietly sitting on a $400-480 slot who may end up deciding to drop down to Outlaw after all, or pull out entirely because the holidays are coming, or they simply can't justify the expense in general.


I can't argue there. I myself grabbed MC7 just to hold onto it and see where everything stood on the final day before deciding to keep MC7 or drop to Outlaw. So I'm sure there must be plenty of others who had the same idea.
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Nancy Durgin
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I think this KS will have more people than typical reducing their pledges at the last minute.

I know I'm personally in at Minecart but fully prepared to drop down to Outlaw (or possibly cancel altogether, though that is unlikely). And in my case it has little to do with the perceived value of Minecart (i.e. having lots more cool add-ons probably won't help). In my view the Minecart is already "worth it" and more is just gravy.

It's more about "Am I really going to spend $475 on a game?"

Everybody's personal situation is different, but I think a lot of people are planning to make their final decision about staying at MC at the last minute. Some of those people will end up dropping down to Outlaw (or out altogether).

It will be an interesting finish!



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I'm guessing we'll get to just under $1.5m

The value in Outlaw is just too good right now. The value in minecart, for those willing to part with nearly $500 for a new game, is also very good. Over the next few days, I suspect it will get even better, and Outlaw will just be nutty good.

I doubt drop offs will be significant - but we'll see!
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mattprice wrote:
I'm guessing we'll get to just under $1.5m

The value in Outlaw is just too good right now. The value in minecart, for those willing to part with nearly $500 for a new game, is also very good. Over the next few days, I suspect it will get even better, and Outlaw will just be nutty good.

I doubt drop offs will be significant - but we'll see!


I agree. I bet we will see 1.4 - 1.5 Million when all's said and done.
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EnjoyRC wrote:
ropya wrote:
What makes you say that?
Even with all the earlier angst, MC ended up being a great deal, for the price, am even at the higher levels.

Seen it happen before. Gamers jump in on a new Kickstarter at the very beginning.. then in time they evaluate if they really want it before it closes.


Sure there are always people who drop out. However the typical trend in most successful Kickstarters is a huge surge of pledges and pledge increases in the last two days. As close as it is I'm positive it will go over 1 million.

Take a look at http://www.kicktraq.com and look at some successful campaigns and see how they finished up. They are almost always the same. A big surge of pledges in the first 4 or so days, decent but low pledges during a majority of the campaign, and then a huge surge similar to the first few days at the end. If there are some really cool stretch goals during the middle of the campaign you will occasionally see nice spikes when those are unlocked.

Some to look at are Robotech RPG Tactics, Bones, Bones II, Zombicide, Zombicide Season II, Call of Cthulhu 7th edition, and Pathfinder Online. Those are just the ones I can think of.

 
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Delthos wrote:
EnjoyRC wrote:
ropya wrote:
What makes you say that?
Even with all the earlier angst, MC ended up being a great deal, for the price, am even at the higher levels.

Seen it happen before. Gamers jump in on a new Kickstarter at the very beginning.. then in time they evaluate if they really want it before it closes.


Sure there are always people who drop out. However the typical trend in most successful Kickstarters is a huge surge of pledges and pledge increases in the last two days. As close as it is I'm positive it will go over 1 million.

Take a look at http://www.kicktraq.com and look at some successful campaigns and see how they finished up. They are almost always the same. A big surge of pledges in the first 4 or so days, decent but low pledges during a majority of the campaign, and then a huge surge similar to the first few days at the end. If there are some really cool stretch goals during the middle of the campaign you will occasionally see nice spikes when those are unlocked.

Some to look at are Robotech RPG Tactics, Bones, Bones II, Zombicide, Zombicide Season II, Call of Cthulhu 7th edition, and Pathfinder Online. Those are just the ones I can think of.



While I agree with what you're saying on other KS', we have an issue here, the minecarts. For the boardgaming crowd, those levels are a lot for a game, and I'm not convinced it's worth it YET.

For mini gamers, they are probably used to getting a lot more mini's for that price, and so may bail towards the end.

FFP admitted they underestimated demand for the MC when they started. I now think they are underestimating how much damage it could do on the home stretch should there be a lot of people bailing.

Let's say we lose 200, or 20% of minecart backers. That's 95,000 backers, or close to 4 stretch goals.

Jorune
 
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Biggest question on mind following this train of thought, is if a stretch goal is passed but then people bail out and it feels back below it, are theystill going tto give us credit for it?
 
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ropya wrote:
Biggest question on mind following this train of thought, is if a stretch goal is passed but then people bail out and it feels back below it, are theystill going tto give us credit for it?


That's something I've been thinking about for a while too. I would assume yes... however it may depend on how much/many SGs were lost. One, not so bad. Five? Now that may make them reconsider.
 
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Jorune wrote:


Let's say we lose 200, or 20% of minecart backers. That's 95,000 backers, or close to 4 stretch goals.

Jorune


But I suspect most of those 200 backers would drop down to Outlaw + add ons, rather than bail completely. If you're nutty enough to consider putting up nearly $500 for an untried FFP game, I doubt you'd just disappear! 200 backers x $150 each is $30,000, so I'm guessing your above example would be closer to $60,000ish than $95,000.

But I doubt we'll even lose 20 minecarters... There's a 1,000 backers now, I'd put my money on that being pretty darn close to 1,000 still once the dust settles...!

Says the eternal optimist. (hehe, I also backed Teramyyd Earthsphere as a beta tester. If that wasn't a leap of faith, I don't know what is!)
 
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To counter a bit of the pessimism here, let's keep in mind that FFP aren't going to sit idly by and not try to lock in those pledges.

How they going to do that?

Keep throwing more plastic crack at us.

I don't see people pledging MC7/8 dropping completely, like Matt said.

They keep throwing more add ons out there, it'll help lock in that value of the mine cart pledges, and it will give outlaws more variety to pledge for. Maybe tomorrow there'll be something that grabs back #3184's attention more than the current offerings, and they up their pledge accordingly.

Everyone wins.
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Jorune wrote:

While I agree with what you're saying on other KS', we have an issue here, the minecarts. For the boardgaming crowd, those levels are a lot for a game, and I'm not convinced it's worth it YET.

For mini gamers, they are probably used to getting a lot more mini's for that price, and so may bail towards the end.

Jorune


Well, as a long time boardgamer and a recent mini gamer (Warhammer 40k, Anima Tactics and Malifaux) - if I could afford a Mine Cart I would do it.

For the boardgamer in me that is a whole lot of game being offered. The boss and large monsters, extra boards and missions added on to two base games and the Outlaw bonuses is amazing. Admittedly at the Outlaw level it is a ridiculous value.

For the miniatures gamer in me it is a butt load of miniatures at either level and at a good price. Paying $10-$20 for a single unassembled unpainted plastic mini is common and the larger figures would be more than that.

When you consider the 2 base games, plus doubles of all those figs, plus all the Outlaw stretch goals and then add in all the Mine Cart minis PLUS the credit for the higher Mine Cart levels that is a lot of plastic.

Budget wise I can't go past Outlaw, but I'm truly jealous of the Mine Carters.
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