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Subject: Low chance? Really? rss

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I've seen this game recommended a few times for people specifically requesting a game with low chance.

I'm sure it's just the fact that I have no idea what I am doing in the game, but it sure seems like chance plays a large role to me.

Perhaps the idea is that chance effects what tiles you draw, but if you can play well it doesn't matter what those tiles are.
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Rob Rob
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Everyone has the same finite set of tiles and there is no "best tile" to draw, every situation requires different tiles to play. Red tiles might have a slight preference but not really enough to overbalanced things.
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Roel van M.
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Robrob wrote:
Everyone has the same finite set of tiles and there is no "best tile" to draw, every situation requires different tiles to play. Red tiles might have a slight preference but not really enough to overbalanced things.


If I remember correctly, there are also more red tiles so it's a bit easier to draw them too.
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Lloyd
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In our group we have racked up a lot of plays of T&E over the years and, disappointingly, the finishing positions are basically always the same. 40-odd plays suggest that there's a lot less luck here than you'd expect.

(Damn you, Martin. I know you're going to read this)
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Michael J
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The more I play this, the less I think luck is the critical factor. With experience, you learn when to attack, when to expand, and when to start internal conflict. Capitalizing on an opponent's recent conflict that deprived them of needed colors, or knowing you are ready to take over green with a lot of green tokens in hand, or knowing when to overbid in a conflict to rid your hand of tiles win or lose are all key strategies and make a huge difference. Luck can play a big factor, but I think this is one of those games that is really about mitigating poor draws and doing the best with what you have, as well as watching for tactical opportunities. It really allows for clever play, and rewards both offensive and defensive tactics. But certainly, for inexperienced players, luck will play a larger role than normal. But that's the same with a lot of games. All said, T&E is one of my favorites. The mix of area control, bidding, and combat resolution and the way battles affect the board has yet to be repeated or improved upon by more modern titles.
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Maarten D. de Jong
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People, can we please distinguish between luck and chance? All luck is chance, not all chance is luck. The OP tied his question to chance, and yes, there's quite a lot of it in this game. It is, however, a skill to manage it wisely, as Lloyd already pointed out.
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Martin G
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sweetsweetdoughnuts wrote:
In our group we have racked up a lot of plays of T&E over the years and, disappointingly, the finishing positions are basically always the same. 40-odd plays suggest that there's a lot less luck here than you'd expect.

(Damn you, Martin. I know you're going to read this)


Hi
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Brian S.
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I've always thought of Tigris & Euphrates to be much like a card game. Chance is definitely a part of the game.
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What do experienced players think of the drop all tiles pick up new tiles action. I have never considered it as it seems like I would have to be quite expert to know when that was the right move.

Is it used? Is it highly situational? Or should I be less reticent to drop a hand that isn't helping my immediate goals?
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Tim Schmitt
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A telling point here: An experienced player will usually beat a newcomer.
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Tim Schmitt
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frumpish wrote:
What do experienced players think of the drop all tiles pick up new tiles action. I have never considered it as it seems like I would have to be quite expert to know when that was the right move.

Is it used? Is it highly situational? Or should I be less reticent to drop a hand that isn't helping my immediate goals?


I think the most common use is when you think you're winning and you want to rush the game to its end.
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Martin G
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frumpish wrote:
What do experienced players think of the drop all tiles pick up new tiles action. I have never considered it as it seems like I would have to be quite expert to know when that was the right move.

Is it used? Is it highly situational? Or should I be less reticent to drop a hand that isn't helping my immediate goals?


I'd much rather find a way to cycle my tiles via a conflict than spend a valuable action swapping them. But that doesn't mean I don't do it sometimes when the need arises - usually as the first action of a turn to prepare for a vital conflict on the second.
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Looking at these stars suddenly dwarfed my own troubles and all the gravities of terrestrial life. I thought of their unfathomable distance, and the slow inevitable drift of their movements out of the unknown past into the unknown future. H.G. Wells
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I think I will wait until I have some idea what I am doing in the game then before trying that action. laugh
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Christopher Dearlove
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cymric wrote:
People, can we please distinguish between luck and chance?


No.

You may have a definition that separates the two (though in my experience, such definitions usually don't fare well when tested) but it certainly isn't universal.
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Any group playing this game for a long time will probably tell you T&E has a very, very low luck factor. BGG used to have an online implementation of T&E and most of the time the same players were winning.

After games such as Puerto Rico or Imperial came out, some people have been mistakingly supposing that a game would be flawed if it didn't have perfect information. That couldn't be more misleading. No matter how "lucky" a beginner may be, he'll lose to an experienced player virtually all the time in T&E. I've once played a four player game where I lost two conflicts against the same guy because he was able to defend with five tiles (exactly the color of the conflict) and I still won.

Believe me - when everybody in the table has beginner level (which is how I started to play this game, by the way), luck does seem to be an important factor. When people get experienced, it isn't anymore.
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Spencer C
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Dearlove wrote:
cymric wrote:
People, can we please distinguish between luck and chance?


No.

You may have a definition that separates the two (though in my experience, such definitions usually don't fare well when tested) but it certainly isn't universal.


What? They're two different words with different domains. That there is some overlap, doesn't mean they're the same. If you want proof of this fact, substitute one for the other in a sentence and see if it still has the precisely same intended meaning. I wager 9/10 times, it won't.

In any event, the dictionary (widely considered to be more or less an authority in the observation of common usage) gives fairly dissimilar definitions for luck and chance. Definitions, I might add, which support cymric's initial statement.
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Whangdoodle wrote:
frumpish wrote:
What do experienced players think of the drop all tiles pick up new tiles action. I have never considered it as it seems like I would have to be quite expert to know when that was the right move.

Is it used? Is it highly situational? Or should I be less reticent to drop a hand that isn't helping my immediate goals?


I think the most common use is when you think you're winning and you want to rush the game to its end.


Another way to use it is if you need certain tiles for a critical battle that can cripple you if you lose. You may use your first action to toss things that don't match, hoping to draw ones that do, and then attack as your second move. This isn't usually good though as you often want to have another move after battles.
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Maarten D. de Jong
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Dearlove wrote:
You may have a definition that separates the two (though in my experience, such definitions usually don't fare well when tested) but it certainly isn't universal.

Honestly, be serious.

Luck = chance which is in the player's favour, i.e. more than the expectation value of the process under study plus some n × σ over a chosen timeframe t (usually a few turns, but also the length of the game); bad luck = /s/more/less/ + /s/plus/minus/. (This assumes that having more than the expectation value is a positive effect, by the way.) Obviously these are quite local and limited phenomena, depend on the values of n and t, but the definition is very rigorous, very objective, and can be extremely well tested.

And even if you argue that the choice of n and t weakens the argument because it would mean that person's A definition of luck differs from that of person B, there is a clear indication why these people disagree; and that the definition still is sufficiently different from—in fact, constructed using more fundamental theorems of—chance (such as the Kolmogorov axioms).

Of course there may be English semantics at work which have me mixing up chance with probability: in Dutch we use kans and waarschijnlijkheid respectively, but depending on whether we use a frequentist or Bayesian approach the latter word can be replaced with kans too. Apologies if I'm not aware of undercurrents, but to my knowledge English follows a similar usage pattern too.
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UanarchyK wrote:
Dearlove wrote:
cymric wrote:
People, can we please distinguish between luck and chance?


No.

You may have a definition that separates the two (though in my experience, such definitions usually don't fare well when tested) but it certainly isn't universal.


What? They're two different words with different domains.


Nonsense. The domains are the same, probability. Of course grammatically you can't simply substitute one for the other in all cases, but that doesn't make then separate concepts. Really here they are the same concept, what is the probability (e.g. of a good player beating a weaker player). And consider the phrases by chance … and by luck …

Quote:
In any event, the dictionary (widely considered to be more or less an authority in the observation of common usage)


Oh, you are digging yourself a hole here. Suffice to say, which dictionary? and that common usage is not where you find anything useful to a discussion that has even a hint of technicality to it.

 
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cymric wrote:
Luck = chance which is in the player's favour


No, that's good luck. Bad luck is chance not in the player's favour. Luck (unqualified) can be either, i.e. chance. If I say "this game is all luck" I'm saying the same as "this game is all chance".

Incidentally anyone who want to play at getting technical (your attempt at argument from authority really isn't impressing me) wouldn't use either word, they'd use probability.
 
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Looking at these stars suddenly dwarfed my own troubles and all the gravities of terrestrial life. I thought of their unfathomable distance, and the slow inevitable drift of their movements out of the unknown past into the unknown future. H.G. Wells
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frumpish wrote:


Yes, quite right. Great photo.
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I was about to say who thumbed my quote of the photo and not the original? Then I saw who. But as I don't thumb (long story, but you do not want my third thumb) I couldn't reciprocate and just had to do a bit of GG instead.
 
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frumpish wrote:
I just read a Ticket To Ride post, and thought this was some exciting new expansion to that.
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ackmondual wrote:
frumpish wrote:
I just read a Ticket To Ride post, and thought this was some exciting new expansion to that.


With a mechanic to kick players off already built tracks and send their trains to the junkyard!
 
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