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Subject: Ops per card difference and luck rss

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Grzegorz Brzęczyszczykiewicz
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I have recently lost a game with my opponent having 0,3 ops per card more than me. That made me wonder - how unlucky was I to have such low-ops cards? How often does such difference happen?

I ran a computer simulation to test how often does a given ops per card difference occur. Obviously, I had to simplify the model a little:
- one card played per round per player (so no China, no UN Intervention event, no Blockade discard...)
- every card with one-time event has 50% chance to be removed when played
- a full game is played, with 77 cards per player, correct reshuffles, adding mid war cards in turn 4 and late war cards in turn 8

I simulated 100000 games, looked at results and I must admit - they were quite different from my guesses.
Before I publish them here, I invite you to guess - what percentage of games has an average ops per card difference greater than 0,3?
Public praise and bragging rights for the best guess :-)


 
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Paul M
United States
Elkhart
Indiana
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If you figure an average of 2 pts a card and about 80 cards in a full game, it doesn't take an incredibly skewed distribution of scoring cards or 4op vs 1op cards to get a 0.1 or even 0.2 average difference.

I say 40%.
 
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Derry Salewski
United States
Augusta
Maine
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62%
 
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O.Shane Balloun
United States
Bellingham
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1 standard deviation: 68%.
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Riku Riekkinen
Finland
Jyväskylä
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35%
 
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Daniel Hogetoorn
Netherlands
Amsterdam
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I go for 25%
 
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Holger Doessing
Denmark
Odense
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249%.
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Paul M
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holgerd wrote:
249%.
Must be some weird European conversion.
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Jay Sachs
United States
Woodinville
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Despite your hope, there is not even any inherent symbolism; gravity is simply a coincidence.
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ipgyst wrote:
holgerd wrote:
249%.
Must be some weird European conversion.

It's in metric percent.
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K Kailden
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The USA cards seem to have a more capitalist distribution of the ops points if you ask me...and I'm always a 'have not'. But I still cling to the American dream...
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Grzegorz Brzęczyszczykiewicz
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Funny, how intuition sometimes deceives us. My guess was that avg. ops per card difference > 0,3 happens in about 40% games. As it turned out - in less than 8% :-)

Here are the full results of the simulation :

Percentile | USSR avg. ops - US avg. ops
0%: -0.79220796
1%: -0.38961053
2%: -0.35064936
3%: -0.32467532
4%: -0.2987013
5%: -0.27272725
10%: -0.22077918
15%: -0.16883135
20%: -0.14285707
25%: -0.11688304
30%: -0.090909004
35%: -0.06493497
40%: -0.038961172
45%: -0.012987137
50%: 0.0
55%: 0.025974035
60%: 0.051947832
65%: 0.06493521
70%: 0.090909004
75%: 0.11688304
80%: 0.14285707
85%: 0.18181801
90%: 0.22077918
95%: 0.28571415
96%: 0.2987013
97%: 0.32467532
98%: 0.35064936
99%: 0.40259743
100%: 0.77922094

Total average ops per card: 2.262
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Jay Sachs
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Even a 0.2 difference translates roughly into 15 or so ops different through the whole game. That's not insignificant.
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