Mac Mcleod
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Could see more than average civil unrest this summer.

But where is it most likely?
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Paul DeStefano
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Avocados.
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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Geosphere wrote:
Avocados.


Yeah, but will there be more avacado unrest than the great avacado uprising of '67.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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This is odd because avacado's are cheaper than they've ever been in houston. Big mounds of them at the stores here.
 
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Lee Fisher
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Well did you have a source for the supposed wholesale increase?
 
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Mac Mcleod
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CNBC and Bloomberg both had programs on this last week; they were discussing it from the perspective of investors.

They expect meat; coffee; and grain to all be more expensive to much more expensive for consumers in the summer based on wholesale prices now.

There's also a known correlation between higher food prices and civil unrest. They even have models for it now.
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Paul DeStefano
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I find "they" are usually quite wrong about this sort of thing.
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Mac Mcleod
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Well... I'll be salting away an extra can of coffee just in case.

And they were discussing the fact of higher wholesale prices now-- so the only question was how long until those higher wholesale prices resulted in higher retail prices.

Since I make money off of information like this - I tend to put a lot of weight on "their" opinions.

I guess I had assumed the wholesale food price was a given but apparently that's in question and/or that anyone who did question it would do the 30 seconds of googling it would take to find the information.

Sigh.

http://www.suntimes.com/business/4355097-420/food-prices-jum...

Quote:
Wholesale food prices spiked 3.9 percent in February from January, the biggest jump in 36 years, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

Most of the increase was because of a sharp rise in vegetable costs, but meat and dairy prices also jumped. Harsh winter freezes in Florida, Texas and other Southern states damaged crops, driving up vegetable prices. Meanwhile global prices for corn, wheat and soybeans have risen sharply in the past year. That has raised the price of animal feed, pushing up the cost of eggs, beef and milk at the wholesale and consumer level.

Corn prices are up 59.4 percent from last year. Wheat is up 81 percent, and soybeans are up 29 percent, said Ephraim Leibtag, deputy director for research at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.

The USDA forecast says consumer food prices will rise 3 to 4 percent this year.

...


Perhaps I just have more time- or since I invest in these kind of things and my income is somewhat fixed - more interest.



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Shannon Kane
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I find civil gardening more likely than civil unrest. Or they both could end up happening, if straights get dire enough.
 
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Drew1365 wrote:
Perhaps it's time to dump ethanol mandates, a huge reason for the increase in grain prices.


Ethanol mandates have been stupid since day 1.

They should at least be halved or something.
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Shankie wrote:
I find civil gardening more likely than civil unrest. Or they both could end up happening, if straights get dire enough.


The unrest won't happen in he US. I gathered that he was talking about internationally.
 
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Drew1365 wrote:
Perhaps it's time to dump ethanol mandates, a huge reason for the increase in grain prices.

Perhaps it's time we worked to lower the cost of energy, another reason we have high food prices.


Here here. I'm with you on the ethanol mandates.

Apparently weather is the cause of most of the current increases.

---

And I'm asking about where it would be likely.

I don't think the U.S. is likely. Things are not that bad here yet.

But spain perhaps?

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It may hurt poor countries, but it could be a good thing for the US?

Especially if corn (high fructose corn syrup) becomes less attractive to the food corporations.



 
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tesuji wrote:
It may hurt poor countries, but it could be a good thing for the US?

Especially if corn (high fructose corn syrup) becomes less attractive to the food corporations.





I think if the poor realized just how much money they waste on modern expenditures they accept as necessary versus ever trying to realize how many ancient techniques we reject without any rational reason... we'd have fewer trouble with this sort of thing.

Travel for product equals travel possible for a modest modern person. This, economy, being one of so ever many reasons.
 
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Drew1365 wrote:

Please tell me you're joking. High food prices are good because it'll combat obesity? That's . . . asinine.

Sorry, it just is. You realize that high food prices harm the poor most of all?

This is just like those people who want gas to be $6.00/gal. in the US to force people to use public transport -- again, harming the poor disproportionately, particularly the rural poor.


Not that I believe that higher food prices are better, but there is an argument for avoiding subsidies to grains. The general farm subsidies lower the price of some foods, and by doing so, distort the market. Making corn cheap is not exactly the best kind of distortion if your main concern is fighting obesity. If instead we had no subsidies whatsoever, there's a good chance farmers would grow other crops that provide a better return than the subsidized corn, and that said crops are healthier to eat than something that is just a source of carbohydrates.

Now, what I'd expect is that if corn was less profitable, what we'd get instead is not a whole lot of very healthy vegetables, but just a straight switch to soybeans.

Some people go as far as to say that what should be subsidized is the production of other crops, so that it becomes cheaper to eat healthy foods.
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hibikir wrote:
Drew1365 wrote:

Please tell me you're joking. High food prices are good because it'll combat obesity? That's . . . asinine.

Sorry, it just is. You realize that high food prices harm the poor most of all?

This is just like those people who want gas to be $6.00/gal. in the US to force people to use public transport -- again, harming the poor disproportionately, particularly the rural poor.


Not that I believe that higher food prices are better, but there is an argument for avoiding subsidies to grains. The general farm subsidies lower the price of some foods, and by doing so, distort the market. Making corn cheap is not exactly the best kind of distortion if your main concern is fighting obesity. If instead we had no subsidies whatsoever, there's a good chance farmers would grow other crops that provide a better return than the subsidized corn, and that said crops are healthier to eat than something that is just a source of carbohydrates.

Now, what I'd expect is that if corn was less profitable, what we'd get instead is not a whole lot of very healthy vegetables, but just a straight switch to soybeans.

Some people go as far as to say that what should be subsidized is the production of other crops, so that it becomes cheaper to eat healthy foods.

I'd bet Drew is opposed to federal corn subsidies. I know I am.
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Subsidies & protectionism in general really only work as a temporary measure when a crop has been hit by some rare disaster and needs a year or two to recover. If the prices are suffering due to plain old competition, then subsidies / protectionism just makes things worse.
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galad2003 wrote:
tesuji wrote:
It may hurt poor countries, but it could be a good thing for the US?

Especially if corn (high fructose corn syrup) becomes less attractive to the food corporations.








Cheap food is full of fillers and fat, which is why poor people often end up fat. High fructose corn syrup foods are cheap. Wishing food prices to go up so people lose weight is an asshole thing to say, how many kids will go hungry if food prices go up?

I know its hard to understand what it is like to be poor with all your white privilege but try to pull your head out of your ass before you type.



tesuji wrote:
...?

tesuji wrote:
Especially if corn (high fructose corn syrup) becomes less attractive to the food corporations.

I admire your passion for the welfare of the poor, which I also share. It is shameful that 1 out of 6 people in the US don't get enough food, many of them children, in a rich country like the US.

I'm just saying that a lot of us eat more than we need, so it might not be a bad thing if food cost more - we might eat less. Plenty of non-poor people are fat.

The solution to the poor not being able to afford food is obviously for the non-poor to help them out.
 
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