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Subject: "Seeding" Math Trades - is this viable? rss

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Brian Schlichting
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I have a good/silly/dumb/crazy idea. Many times with trades in general, and especially math trades, people keep their want list fairly tight. There are shipping costs to consider, especially with GC trades.

The last couple of trades, I have put a bunch of items in the trade. I think between the two trades, 30 listings, 18 of which were traded. Great ratio.

But what if....

I had offered one or more "reverse arbitrage" offerings to "seed" the trade?

What would TradeMax find if a lot of people did this?

For example, a 5000 item trade that generated 2000 trades.
Add a listing of a copy of a $40 GC for each user with over 5 listings that only wants a $30 GC for it. Maybe that is 100 copies of this "reverse arbitrage" that folks decide to voluntarily add to the trade. They are agreeing to pay for one extra ship for free, approximately. Given my listings of 15+ items in each trade, I would consider something like this, if it were to raise the trade % significantly overall, and get rid of more of my listings.

Would TradeMax now find 2100 trades, with 100 lucky users getting to trade up on somebody else's dime? Or would it loosen up the whole trade significantly and generate 3000 trades instead of 2000?

Is this the dumbest idea ever?

Can the theory be tested with an old trade's math results? Maybe by adding a user with bunch of $40 GC offerings, and check the $30 want boxes for all of them. Or putting in a few different levels of GC trade downs?
 
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Daniel Corban
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If you want to increase your number of trades, why not add a $10 gift certificate to your listings?

Wouldn't the people willing to accept $30 just take $30 instead of $40? Wouldn't the $40 just go directly to the people already valuing their items at $30 (and are therefore already having a higher chance to trade)?

It is my suspicion that it would simply reward the addition of junk lots from people attempting to "win the lottery", and not increase the number of real trades (trades that would happen without these unwanted junk lots).
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Jeff Michaud
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On-Line Want List Generator - Hopefully Making Math Trades a Little Bit Easier
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PopeBrain wrote:
Can the theory be tested with an old trade's math results?

if you've got the time... the WANTS for all completed math trades are available from the OLWLG

as others are indicating however I don't think it would be worth your time to back test... and not worth your real money to forward test
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-=::) Dante (::=-
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For each $40 GC accepting $30 you'd be facilitating one or more "unbalanced" trades equaling roughly that value disparity ($10), but with no idea who would benefit. Basically a lottery where even those who don't buy tickets are as likely to win.
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Kevin B. Smith
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I grabbed the "Sprint is still coming" wants list, found a random $30 GC that only had one item in its wantlist, and replaced that item with 5 $20 GC's. That one act of reverse arbitrage increased the total number of trades from 499 to 504.

Then (with the original $30 GC still reverse-arbitraging, so 504 trades), I found someone who had 6 copies of a $30 GC, and I blanked out those wantlists. There were still 504 trades. Now I set all 6 of these to want the 5 $20 GC's, and the trade count went up to 508.

With that reverse arbitrage in place, I blanked out the wants for 6 $60 GC, still resulting in 508 trades. Then I set all 6 of the $60 GC to reverse arbitrage for the 5 $20 GC, which increased the trades to 531.

I couldn't see an easy way to simulate 100 trades down of $10 each, or anything like that. I could do it, but it would probably take an hour or more of work.

So the theory holds up: That seeding some reverse arbitrage items will increase the overall number of trades made. However, the numbers look pretty small. In the examples above, spending $10 gained 5 more trades, spread among over 250 people, so a few people get lucky, but the overall global effect is pretty minimal. Spending another $150 only got 4 more trades. Spending another $200 gained 23 more trades.

It would be fun to do something like this as a random act of kindness.
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Daniel Corban
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Anyone willing to "trade down" will of course increase the number of trades, as it greatly increases the chance of their item trading, and it will be wanted by many. It is simply easier to value an item denominated in cash.
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Brian Schlichting
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peakhope wrote:
I grabbed the "Sprint is still coming" wants list, found a random $30 GC that only had one item in its wantlist, and replaced that item with 5 $20 GC's. That one act of reverse arbitrage increased the total number of trades from 499 to 504.

Then (with the original $30 GC still reverse-arbitraging, so 504 trades), I found someone who had 6 copies of a $30 GC, and I blanked out those wantlists. There were still 504 trades. Now I set all 6 of these to want the 5 $20 GC's, and the trade count went up to 508.

With that reverse arbitrage in place, I blanked out the wants for 6 $60 GC, still resulting in 508 trades. Then I set all 6 of the $60 GC to reverse arbitrage for the 5 $20 GC, which increased the trades to 531.

I couldn't see an easy way to simulate 100 trades down of $10 each, or anything like that. I could do it, but it would probably take an hour or more of work.

So the theory holds up: That seeding some reverse arbitrage items will increase the overall number of trades made. However, the numbers look pretty small. In the examples above, spending $10 gained 5 more trades, spread among over 250 people, so a few people get lucky, but the overall global effect is pretty minimal. Spending another $150 only got 4 more trades. Spending another $200 gained 23 more trades.

It would be fun to do something like this as a random act of kindness.


Wow Kevin. Thanks for doing that! That is definitely the bottom end of results that I was expecting. It appears similar to what others suggested, that each "random act of kindness" would simply be a lottery for one more trade.
 
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Flying Arrow
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Much easier to just add $40 to the value of one of your items but value the item as if you didn't have the $40 there. You won't end up just giving the item to one lucky person... the person offers the 'best' item in exchange is the one who will get your item. Basically, everyone in your trade chain will be able to trade 'up' slightly while you trade down signficantly. Doing it this way guarantees that you are one of the people who will benefit from generously opening up the trade chain.
 
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-=::) Dante (::=-
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FlyingArrow wrote:
Basically, everyone in your trade chain will be able to trade 'up' slightly while you trade down signficantly.


More likely that only one or two people would benefit. Not sure where you're getting the idea that everyone down-chain is going to benefit, that's just not how things work out in practice.

If you go back to prior math trades and look at the instances where someone mis-clicked and accepted a much lower value item this does not produce a long chain of slight trade-ups like you imagine.

FlyingArrow wrote:
Doing it this way guarantees that you are one of the people who will benefit from generously opening up the trade chain.


How so?
 
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