Mac Mcleod
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What impact does it have on republican vs democratic parties at various chronic unemployment levels?

Say 25% were unemployed all the time.
How about 50%?

At what point can't you say, "It's their fault- they just need to work harder!" (IMHO, at no point- so that angle leads to violence and civile unrest).

Money is really exchange of your time for goods for most people. How do we run a world when most people will be unable to exchange their time for anything because a machine can do anything they can do- better.

It's coming..

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Futu...

Here's some highlights from page 71-72.

These are basically 96% likely to be automated..

Computerisable
Rank Probability Label SOC code Occupation
640. 0.96 49-9093 Fabric Menders, Except Garment
641. 0.96 35-2014 Cooks, Restaurant
642. 0.96 39-3031 Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers
643. 0.96 43-3021 Billing and Posting Clerks
644. 0.97 53-6011 Bridge and Lock Tenders
645. 0.97 51-7042 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing
646. 0.97 51-2092 Team Assemblers
647. 0.97 51-6042 Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders
648. 0.97 51-2023 Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers
649. 0.97 1 13-1074 Farm Labor Contractors
650. 0.97 51-6061 Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders
651. 0.97 51-9081 Dental Laboratory Technicians
652. 0.97 51-9021 Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, ...
653. 0.97 51-9022 Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand
654. 0.97 37-3012 Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation
655. 0.97 45-4023 Log Graders and Scalers
656. 0.97 51-9083 Ophthalmic Laboratory Technicians
657. 0.97 1 41-2011 Cashiers
658. 0.97 49-9061 Camera and Photographic Equipment Repairers
659. 0.97 39-3021 Motion Picture Projectionists
660. 0.97 51-5111 Prepress Technicians and Workers
661. 0.97 41-2021 Counter and Rental Clerks
662. 0.97 1 43-4071 File Clerks
663. 0.97 41-9021 Real Estate Brokers
664. 0.97 43-2021 Telephone Operators
665. 0.97 19-4011 Agricultural and Food Science Technicians
666. 0.97 43-3051 Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks
667. 0.97 1 43-4041 Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks
668. 0.97 35-9031 Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge,and Coffee Shop
669. 0.98 41-9012 Models
670. 0.98 51-9061 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers
671. 0.98 43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
672. 0.98 43-6012 Legal Secretaries
673. 0.98 27-4013 Radio Operators
674. 0.98 53-3031 Driver/Sales Workers
675. 0.98 1 13-1031 Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators
676. 0.98 41-2022 Parts Salespersons
677. 0.98 1 13-2041 Credit Analysts
678. 0.98 51-4035 Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
679. 0.98 43-5071 Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks
680. 0.98 43-3061 Procurement Clerks
681. 0.98 51-9111 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders
682. 0.98 51-9194 Etchers and Engravers
683. 0.98 43-3071 Tellers
684. 0.98 27-2023 Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
685. 0.98 13-1032 Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage
686. 0.98 1 13-2072 Loan Officers

Rank Probability Label SOC code Occupation
687. 0.98 43-4151 Order Clerks
688. 0.98 43-4011 Brokerage Clerks
689. 0.98 43-9041 Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks
690. 0.98 51-2093 Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters
691. 0.99 1 43-9021 Data Entry Keyers
692. 0.99 25-4031 Library Technicians
693. 0.99 43-4141 New Accounts Clerks
694. 0.99 51-9151 Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators
695. 0.99 13-2082 Tax Preparers
696. 0.99 43-5011 Cargo and Freight Agents
697. 0.99 49-9064 Watch Repairers
698. 0.99 1 13-2053 Insurance Underwriters
699. 0.99 15-2091 Mathematical Technicians
700. 0.99 51-6051 Sewers, Hand
701. 0.99 23-2093 Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers
702. 0.99 41-9041 Telemarketers

---

This would seem to leave the social issues as more important to the parties. Or forced nationalism. Or using religion to manipulate people.

There's already pretty widespread control of the mass media by the wealthy who spin like crazy ( and I include MSNBC and CNN- which both slip in inherently pro-wealthy statement fairly regularly).
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Re: Job's likely to be automated....
703. 1.00 Your ability to post formatted tables.
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Re: Job's likely to be automated....
Why is Job likely to be made into an automaton? What did he do? Who's going to do it?
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Re: Job's likely to be automated....
whac3 wrote:
Why is Job likely to be made into an automaton? What did he do? Who's going to do it?


Robot Job never questions God.
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Re: Job's likely to be automated....
CrankyPants wrote:
703. 1.00 Your ability to post formatted tables.


That would truly be a blessing.

I knew a couple years ago but I forgot.

Got a link? I'll format it.
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maxo-texas wrote:
... Got a link? I'll format it.

Here ya go.
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galad2003 wrote:
Until AI is developed I am not worried about machines and automation taking away any jobs. For every job that is automated there is one more IT guy, computer programmer, electronics technician, trainer and project manager needed.


Having worked in the field, I can tell you that the ratio is more like "For every 1,000 or more jobs automated there is one more IT guy, computer programmer, electronics technician, trainer and project manager needed. Of those, four are dumped after the project is live unless they have another project to do."
 
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Many of these are highly questionable. Camera repairs, not a chance until robots are doing reliable surgery. Cooks? At McDonalds, sure, at anywhere I'd want to eat, no. (Remember also that America is the only country in the grip of franchise mania.)
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Models? Really?
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sbszine wrote:
Models? Really?


Yeah, just 3d render them. It'll save to a ton of photoshop time as well.
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dynamiteboy80 wrote:
Yeah, just 3d render them. It'll save to a ton of photoshop time as well.

Huh. Good point. I guess you would just have the model / actress celebrity types for the covers of gossip mags, but for catalogues etc a CG stand in would work.
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Aren't the political parties already automated?
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And remember, we cannot possibly allow the manufacturing of electric light bulbs because it would put all of the candle makers out of work.
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Morganza wrote:
And remember, we cannot possibly allow the manufacturing of electric light bulbs because it would put all of the candle makers out of work.


Sounds like someone is automated in their responses already.

What if this time is different Morganza and any job half the population can do can be done for under the poverty level by a robot?
Or in my more conservative phrasing- the robots can't do any job but they can do enough that we experience 25% unemployment?

Currently the republicans would continue to say the 25% should just work harder. The democrats would be incapable of taxing those working enough to cover that many unemployed. In many countries, those levels of unemployment without a social safety net produce unrest, violence and miserable conditions even for the wealthy (who constantly fear for their safety and the safety of their loved ones-- much less their property).

Just for the sake of discussion- suppose it does occur. What *new* ideas do you have to deal with the situation?

Oh.. and by the way, many of the luddites died homeless and starving. Society moved on- but they were dead right that industrialization without training on the machines was a death sentence for them. Sort of like how modern companies won't retrain employees any more. And the cost of training may not be repaid by the jobs it produces.

Sbzine wrote:

Many of these are highly questionable. Camera repairs, not a chance until robots are doing reliable surgery. Cooks? At McDonalds, sure, at anywhere I'd want to eat, no. (Remember also that America is the only country in the grip of franchise mania.)


They already have automated burger machines that make premium quality burgers more consistently and accurately than human cooks.

I'd put down watch repair as hard to automate. Too many variations. But robots are already assisting surgeons.

From the wiki...
Quote:
In May 2006 the first artificial intelligence doctor-conducted unassisted robotic surgery on a 34 year old male to correct heart arythmia. The results were rated as better than an above-average human surgeon.


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maxo-texas wrote:

I'd put down watch repair as hard to automate. Too many variations. But robots are already assisting surgeons.


Interesting example, watch repair.

How many people do you know who wear or carry a watch with delicate inner workings that can only be repaired by a skilled human?

Yes, finely-crafted status symbols will probably require human labor forever -- as robots get more skilled we'll come up with more intricate human-only contraptions. But watches, per se, are becoming less and less common.

There's a parallel in clothing -- I simply don't buy clothing that needs to be dry-cleaned, ironed, or (in general) hand-washed.

But getting back to the bigger question... we're already undergoing a social revolution as a lower and lower percentage of the population has economically valuable skills. This isn't just a matter or raising educational standards and expectations -- at least I don't think so -- our society isn't structured to give everyone the tools to succeed, and it's quite possible that the human gene pool isn't the right mix to provide the future balance of manual and cognitive labor.

Oh dear, that's a huge can of worms. Let me back away from that. Slowly.
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As to what we can do... there are two tactics:

1. Equip people to work in present and future occupations.
2. Retool society so that we assign value to tasks other than economic ones. For example, I don't see child care as being automated any time soon, but the US assigns a much lower economic and social status to child care than many of our first-world peers. (A slight divergence from the "service economy" the many people talk about.)

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The utopian SF ideal is some kind of post scarcity society where anything we don't find satisfaction in doing is automated. To get there from here you need automation.

Any kind of automation resulting in mass unemployment is going to be bad for corporations in the short term, because the workers are the consumers. No consumers, no profits. So there needs to be some kind of social change to go along with automation. In Japan that was sinecures and makework, so hopefully you lot can do better than that.

My preference is a much lower population + part time work or less working days.
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This, the other side of this equation no one is addressing. A functioning economy is dependent on lots of dollars changing hands for goods and services. Just what do you think begins to happen when more and more people can't?

It's not just the "little people" affected, either, unless an "economy" is something we have decided we don't need anymore.
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Thanks for engaging.

There is a very real possibility that for the rest of our lives, this will not quite come to pass. I have noticed that I and others are often accurate as to various negative outcomes but we are way off on the time scale.

We could also head towards extreme distopia (essentially thinly disguised genocide).

We could end up with "universe 133" (rat population research) where humans get so overcrowded that most simply stop breeding (which lead to population collapse in rats over and over-- they didn't recover when the population got smaller). There are some signs of the "beautiful ones" in our cultures today.

We could head towards a utopia but the odds seem poor.

Personally, given housing, food, entertainment, and a few vacations a year for change of scenary - I have no compulsion to work. I discovered this in 1990-- and saved hard since that date based on my realization.

I follow advances in robotics and automation and some of the stuff is getting scary good really fast. Superhuman dexterity, precision, and starting to be *REALLY* cheap (under $2000 for sushi pasta robots, $22000 for the Baxter, and under $25000 for the new security guard robot). The human advantage of being able to see things and understand things is shrinking fast.

I mean... self driving cars!?!?! So self driving trucks with self driving mini forklifts that deliver product to the customer without a human.


Sleep now.

 
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whac3 wrote:
Why is Job likely to be made into an automaton? What did he do? Who's going to do it?

Because it's the will of the Builder.

Having faith in the Builder.

Karras.
 
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Will greengrocers' apostrophes be inserted by robots, or will they still be lovingly handcrafted by artisans?
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Koldfoot wrote:
Wasn't this a big issue in the 70s and 80s? Yes it was. Automation was going to put some huge amount of blue collar workers out of work forever.

Somehow people found new niches to exploit and new industries sprung up. Without a job a small percentage of workers got creative and other segments of the economy expanded, creating new jobs.

Fears are premature.


I go back and forth on this. It's not just the 70s and 80s; new technology has reduced labor requirements to do a given job ever since someone said, "Hey, maybe we could use that animal over there to pull the plow," and probably before. If history is our guide we should expect to see local and temporary disruptions but, overall, higher quality jobs and higher standards of living.

History, however, isn't always a perfect guide. In past disruptions, technology created new jobs that did not involve huge amounts of training, education or skill. The manufacturing revolution featured jobs that were highly productive (because human capital was leveraged against machine capital) but which an average adult could learn to do fairly quickly. I'm not sure that's the case here.

The pace and extent of jobs being automated is, I believe, higher than it's been in the past. One thing I find fascinating is that a significant amount of white collar work is also being automated. Factories are being designed that need only a tiny number of people to operate them -- and those people are all highly-skilled.

When I look at new businesses forming today, there are service-sector jobs (like, blatant plug, Boda Borg) that will always need significant numbers of people -- but there are a lot of new companies that simply don't. It's not at all obvious to me that growth in our economy will lead to comparable growth in jobs.

Granted, at some level there will be demand for low-skill service jobs -- cleaners, greeters, etc., but at what wage?
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Increase luxuries!
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