NELSON SANTIAGO
United States
independence
KY
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
As a relatively new to the hobby, I found what I though was a very interesting geeklist composed of the different statistical changes of rating, if i am not mistaken for the last 10 years. By excellent contributions from
JonMichael Rasmus
United States
Madison
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
This allowed me to learn and see real history on the boardgame community and makes me wonder how much my purchases are based on current "hype" per say ,some games where able to reach the top 5 and in some cases and eventually drop out of the top 100. Right now I bought Terra Mystica and Eclipse Two relatively new board games that quickly reached top 10 spots. I enjoy them but are they really top 10 material?, how long does it take a game to stabilize? In contrast there are Pillars in boardgames which I have been lucky to play such as TS, TTA, Agricola, Power Grid, PR to name a few that have stayed consistent for years. What games do you think will fade away?

I am thinkin Keyflower , Robinson Crusoe, Terra Mystica, Nations, Caverna(maybe high forties) based on fan base, and Castles of Burgundy. Now do you agree with my choices? What are yours?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Rachel Poulos
United States
Worcester
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I think Dominant Species will eventually fall when a similar game that is a bit less swingy/is shorter come out. I think Lords of Waterdeep will definitely fall as people get tired of it.
5 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
chris leko
United States
Brooksville
Florida
flag msg tools
badge
What's so great about it?
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
cronos177 wrote:
I am thinkin Keyflower , Robinson Crusoe, Terra Mystica, Nations, Caverna(maybe high forties) based on fan base, and Castles of Burgundy.


I sense a theme to your choices.

I do think the top 50 will fluctuate as new games come out, and people get sick of the ones there (though I do think Nations might fall out, but I'm not a big fan of it or TTA).
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
NELSON SANTIAGO
United States
independence
KY
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I agree with your choices I had Dominant Species I love the game it was on my top 5, but in reality it is so much work to be constantly calculating 2*3 + 1*2 = vs x*y + ... The the next tile repeat process, not only that but if I move to that tile the x* ... I love the game but thats the problem.It needs a new implementation. In regard to LOW when they started mentioning it similarities in Weight to Stone Age I stopped caring about that game. I rather play Agricola.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Gregg Saruwatari
United States
Arroyo Grande
California
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
cronos177 wrote:
As a relatively new to the hobby, I found what I though was a very interesting geeklist composed of the different statistical changes of rating, if i am not mistaken for the last 10 years. By excellent contributions from
JonMichael Rasmus
United States
Madison
Wisconsin
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
This allowed me to learn and see real history on the boardgame community and makes me wonder how much my purchases are based on current "hype" per say ,some games where able to reach the top 5 and in some cases and eventually drop out of the top 100. Right now I bought Terra Mystica and Eclipse Two relatively new board games that quickly reached top 10 spots. I enjoy them but are they really top 10 material, how long does it take a game to stabilize? In contrast there are Pillars in boardgames which I have been lucky to play such as TS, TTA, Abricola, POwer Grid, PR to name a few that have stay consistent for years. What games do you think will fade away?

I am thinkin Keyflower , Robinson Crusoe, Terra Mystica, Nations, Caverna(maybe high forties) based on fan base, and Castles of Burgundy. Now do you agree with my choices? What are yours?


I would suggest that it simply depends on the competition. I think it is likely Eclipse outlasts Terra Mystica because of the constant stream of games coming out with similar mechanics to TM. I think Power Grid is lucky to not have much competition and is highly overrated. It will drop soon as PG players try other games. Many have hypothesized that TS owes its high rating to the fact that only people who enjoy long 2 player games will even try it, leading it to have skewed high average rankings. Same with TTA. Agricola is suffering from direct competition from Caverna and PR from RFTG. Keyflower is pretty unique and has the possibility to stay for a while IMO. Robinson Crusoe really depends on when the next great Co-op comes out, but is the top current C-op IMO. Since Nations wasn't able to take the Civ-type gamers by storm, I am assuming it will drop off and disappear when the next great civ-type game comes out.

As far as games not mentioned by the OP-
Netrunner will definitely drop. It seems to be hyped by former MTG players that are desperate to tout something as being "better than MTG"
It simply is not as versatile being only 2 players, taking longer, requiring more fiddly bits, and relying on bluff as a form of strategy.
Mage Wars has a lot of the same issues.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Matt Brown
United States
Okemos
Michigan
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
cronos177 wrote:
I am thinkin Keyflower , Robinson Crusoe, Terra Mystica, Nations, Caverna(maybe high forties) based on fan base, and Castles of Burgundy. Now do you agree with my choices? What are yours?


I'm curious about the time frame on these. Caverna isn't going to be in the high forties for years considering it is in the Top 15 within 8(?) months after release and still going strong. The others are rather new as well so they won't be falling out for years. A very general rule is game will start to tapper off after two years. This is why games in the Top 10 or so are generally going down in geek score even if ever so slowly. TM is an exception, but it is the newest one of the bunch. A:N is slightly older but has a much higher standard deviation so it will be tougher to stay higher.

Easy picks to be gone from the Top 50 within short order:

Summoner Wars, killed by Mage Wars for many.

Steam, odd for there to be no Wallace train game in the Top 50, but the game has been steadily going down, and I see no reason for it to change.

Pathfinder, will be a victim of its own success as new base packs are brought out. People will move on so I don't think there's going to be a long lasting crowd feeding votes into it.

War of the Ring(1st edition), because it is obvious. New ratings are crawling in. People have simply moved on to the newer edition. The lack of new ratings will catch up to it.

T&E, will take time and the only real crime here is that it is old.

Dominion, new stuff for it will end and more and more people will move on towards newer deck builders if they haven't already(waves).
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Canada
Toronto
Ontario
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I think older games will eventually fall just because cult of the new.

I think Ora et Labora will get displaced because of both Caverna and Agricola going strong.

Arkham Horror will likely eventually dip to 150ish because of Eldritch Horror.

As mentioned before, Robinson Crusoe is also a pretty good game, but the I don't see it sticking around like Pandemic etc. It'll probably go lower (around 100) when the next big coop comes.

Nations is a decent game, but I think people will stick with Through the AGes and it will eventually fall into the 150ish range.

Not too experienced on a lot of the other games unfortunately. From what little I know about Prince of Florence and Suburbia, and Kemet, I think they'll fall in favor of newer games too eventually.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kevin B.
United States
Groton
Connecticut
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
It's really hard to predict. A new expansion/edition can always rekindle the hype bonfire.

In the 90's I was pretty sure there was no way that Magic the Gathering would last and here we are 20 years later.

2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.