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Subject: More questions, Shadows and traps, realm tiles. rss

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Erik McCarthy
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The wording on the brigand cards is confusing me.

First for shadows, i assuming ATTACKING breaks it, or being attacked, not merely noticed, breaks it correct?

When attempting to notice, does the brigand only have to be next to any one enemy? Is he effectivly invisible for purposes of darkness creatures until noticed, AND hit? (meaning in my 2 player games, if someone is the brig, am i just pretty much screwed? )

Also i do not fully understand how the combo cards that work as a 3 card combo operate, and in what order....


Next, my first trap encounter was darkness falls on a 4x6. Can i just leave the tile if hit with a trap like that? It seems to be nearly unbeatable (that one in particular.)


Finally, if im playing a 3 act quest, and a tile i move on to has a Quest icon, Am i supposed to draw quest card? If i do and it has a lair on it, do i take one of the lairs the tile has off and replace it, or do i add another (3 lairs on one tile?)

Thanks again in advance,

-e-
 
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Steve Hajducko
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Quote:
The wording on the brigand cards is confusing me.

First for shadows, i assuming ATTACKING breaks it, or being attacked, not merely noticed, breaks it correct?


Being noticed takes the Brigand out of Shadows.

Quote:

When attempting to notice, does the brigand only have to be next to any one enemy? Is he effectivly invisible for purposes of darkness creatures until noticed, AND hit? (meaning in my 2 player games, if someone is the brig, am i just pretty much screwed? )


No, he doesn't have to be hit. He just needs to be adjacent to a monster and that monster performs a successful notice check, then the Brigand comes out of Shadows and is then subject to the monster's priority rules.

Quote:

Also i do not fully understand how the combo cards that work as a 3 card combo operate, and in what order....


If a card has the text 'Optional: Other Card Name' then the 'Other Card Name' needs to be played before the card that has the text. The point of comboing is that you maintain the bonus of Shadows throughout the combo. Usually, any successful attack would remove you from Shadows.

If you were be in Shadows and play 'Shadows Reach', you could then play 'Shadows Touch' immediately after. Notice that 'Shadows Touch' REQUIRES you to be in Shadows, but since you are playing it as a combo, even if your Shadows Reach was to succeed which would normally take you out of Shadows, it doesn't until after you roll for Shadows Touch. Both attacks would also get the benefit from being in Shadows, which is +2 Fate Dice.

If I didn't use them as a combo, then I would immediately come out of Shadows after the Shadows Reach attack was successful. I would then have to go back into Shadows to play Shadow's Touch.

Hope that helps

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Mathue Faulkner
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gravitygroove wrote:

Next, my first trap encounter was darkness falls on a 4x6. Can i just leave the tile if hit with a trap like that? It seems to be nearly unbeatable (that one in particular.)

Yes, you can just leave. If you're running a full 5 Heroes, someone calculated that your odds are less than 50%. If you have less than 5 Heroes, then it only gets worse. I think the Trap needs to be rebalanced, and scaled appropriately.


gravitygroove wrote:
Finally, if im playing a 3 act quest, and a tile i move on to has a Quest icon, Am i supposed to draw quest card? If i do and it has a lair on it, do i take one of the lairs the tile has off and replace it, or do i add another (3 lairs on one tile?)

Yes, draw a Quest. Any Lairs that apply to the Chapter Quest can be applied towards the Tile Requirements... (so not 3 Lairs).
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Jeremy Steward
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I would like to see some real math on the Darkness Falls Trap

The trap on average requires about 8-9 "attacks" to hit 6 AP (not counting any refresh or player generated AP)

Whereas the players need on average 10 "attacks" to get 3 runes.

This trap resolves faster depending on higher player counts.

This trap is really only beatable if you have no monsters on the tile and play with the variant where trap AP counts towards loitering and even then, with non-combat actions you likely increase your odds to just over 50%. And then, if you only have a 2 player group you really are better off just escaping the tile since the trap just takes too long to resolve.
 
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Jarad Bond
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I did the basic math with probability and an iterative calculation of all the possible outcomes on an earlier thread. We discussed it a little bit.

The first thing to overcome is getting hit enough times to disarm it. This is not an easy feat at all - I don't have the intermediate probabilities right here, but for 2P: it's around 50% chance to have one hero get hit with one roll and 5% chance to have 2 heroes get hit. Then, once you have knocked that out, you have a 40% chance to get your disarm. You realistically only get a maximum of around 4 rounds to get a 40% chance to succeed 3 times in a row because you are spending one AP per turn to avoid loitering. But, even that is reduced, because you have around a 30% chance each round to get hit, fail, and bump the AP up again, which reduces your overall likelihood (many of those outcomes I calculated had fewer turns to disarm due to early failures).

Factoring it all in, 2p gets 10% chance of success.

Higher player counts have a whopping 90%+ for at least one hero to get hit in a round. The highest probabilities are 2 and 3 heroes getting hit. Which is what you want. Because spending +1AP at the end of each HC is wasting your chances to disarm this trap. The best possible chance to disarm would be if all 5 heroes get hit the first round to try to disarm 5 times before your HC goes out. On average, the 5p group is going to get about 6 tries before they set off AP 6, counting in all the possible early failures and probably only one or two refresh cycles.

Factoring it all in, 5p gets almost a 50% chance of success.

And, like you said, your prospects are dismal if you have any monster types active.

I could get into particulars about methodology if you like - I made sure to calculate the chance for all outcomes, and account for each one of them. And they all jived with each other, and totaled 100% in the end. And it made sense when I was done as well.
 
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Steve Hajducko
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I was bored tonight so I wrote a simulator of the Darkness Falls trap in Go.

Ran the test 100,000 times for each number of heroes, taking into account that the heroes had to spend 1 AP to avoid loitering each round:

5 heroes = ~49% success
4 heroes = ~41% success
3 heroes = ~27% success
2 heroes = ~10% success

Here's a sample run output for 5 non-loitering heroes ( in which case a 0 = no matching FD )-

-------------------------------
Attempting disarm with 5 heroes
--- Start of Hero Cycle ---
Rolling fate dice for each hero
Rolled a 3
Matched a hero we haven't rolled yet
Rolled a 0
Rolled a 4
Matched a hero we haven't rolled yet
Rolled a 3
Rolled a 0
--- Rolling 2 disarms ---
Rolled a 2
Failed a disarm, AP now 1
Rolled a 10
Disarmed! Disarm now at 1
AP is at 1, adding 1 to avoid loitering, AP now 2
--- End of Hero Cycle ---
--- Start of Hero Cycle ---
Rolling fate dice for each hero
Rolled a 0
Rolled a 4
Matched a hero we haven't rolled yet
Rolled a 4
Rolled a 3
Matched a hero we haven't rolled yet
Rolled a 5
Matched a hero we haven't rolled yet
--- Rolling 3 disarms ---
Rolled a 9
Disarmed! Disarm now at 2
Rolled a 5
Failed a disarm, AP now 3
Rolled a 1
Failed a disarm, AP now 4
AP is at 4, adding 1 to avoid loitering, AP now 5
--- End of Hero Cycle ---
--- Start of Hero Cycle ---
Rolling fate dice for each hero
Rolled a 0
Rolled a 2
Matched a hero we haven't rolled yet
Rolled a 4
Matched a hero we haven't rolled yet
Rolled a 4
Rolled a 4
--- Rolling 2 disarms ---
Rolled a 2
Failed a disarm, AP now 6
Failed the trap
 
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Jarad Bond
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sjmh wrote:
I was bored tonight so I wrote a simulator of the Darkness Falls trap in Go.

Ran the test 100,000 times for each number of heroes, taking into account that the heroes had to spend 1 AP to avoid loitering each round:

5 heroes = ~49% success
4 heroes = ~41% success
3 heroes = ~27% success
2 heroes = ~10% success


Sweet! Those numbers were dead on what I calculated probability to be. Thanks.

Here's my numbers to check against if you wanted to tweak your program to simulate adding an active monster type: http://boardgamegeek.com/article/15303056#15303056

What's ironic here is that this trap encourages you to sit around doing nothing on the first space of the tile for multiple rounds, which seems exactly opposite of what they generally want you to do in the game, as shown by this "loitering" rule.

Unless their true goal was to make you run like a bat out of hell to get away from this trap... hmm...
wow
 
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Steve Hajducko
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Yeah, especially since if you just loiter, it evens out the percentage to about ~68.4% success, no matter how many heroes you have.

If the AP increase from failing a disarm prevents the heroes from loitering, the numbers look more like:

2 Heroes = 16.076
3 Heroes = 49.802
4 Heroes = 64.312
5 Heroes = 68.14

The numbers I got for an active monster-type ( basically just increasing AP by 2 every cycle now + Darkness Falls AP increases )

2 Heroes = 2.182
3 Heroes = 12.630001
4 Heroes = 24.388
5 Heroes = 40.312

Go isn't my best language ( using this as a learning experience ), but I'm pretty sure the simulation is correct. I'll probably rewrite it so that it's easier to simulate different traps and situations.

 
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Mathue Faulkner
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In your simulations, do you have each Hero roll a die individually (where the Trap only triggers if that particular Hero rolls his particular symbol)? Or do you just roll all of the dice at the same time? The wording in the Rulebook seems to imply the former, but I play the latter just to increase our odds that the Trap triggers...
 
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Jarad Bond
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His simulation was correct based on how it has been described to us by Brian. But that's because we still have unique hero symbols (same for my probability calculations). We're gonna have some more questions when wave 2 goodies comes and you can have multiple heroes with the same faces.

Brian said that you just pool all the dice together, make a roll and if any match your symbol, you get hit (max once per HC). You're not supposed to roll it individually and apply the result only to yourself, even in the trap description in the rulebook.
 
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Steve Hajducko
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mfaulk80 wrote:
In your simulations, do you have each Hero roll a die individually (where the Trap only triggers if that particular Hero rolls his particular symbol)? Or do you just roll all of the dice at the same time? The wording in the Rulebook seems to imply the former, but I play the latter just to increase our odds that the Trap triggers...


Each Hero rolls a die and if it matches any Hero @ the table being played, then it counts. I remove duplicate rolls, as each Hero can only ever be attacked by the trap once in a given Hero Cycle.

The wording in the rulebook that says this is:

Each player rolls a Fate die. If the result matches a Hero being played, the trap attacks that Hero.

So it's definitely not just if you roll your own symbol.

And I remove duplicates because:

Hidden traps attack each Hero once per Hero Cycle.

and

Each Hero may attempt to disarm the trap only once per Hero Cycle.
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Mathue Faulkner
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sjmh wrote:
mfaulk80 wrote:
In your simulations, do you have each Hero roll a die individually (where the Trap only triggers if that particular Hero rolls his particular symbol)? Or do you just roll all of the dice at the same time? The wording in the Rulebook seems to imply the former, but I play the latter just to increase our odds that the Trap triggers...


Each Hero rolls a die and if it matches any Hero @ the table being played, then it counts. I remove duplicate rolls, as each Hero can only ever be attacked by the trap once in a given Hero Cycle.

The wording in the rulebook that says this is:

Each player rolls a Fate die. If the result matches a Hero being played, the trap attacks that Hero.

So it's definitely not just if you roll your own symbol.

And I remove duplicates because:

Hidden traps attack each Hero once per Hero Cycle.

and

Each Hero may attempt to disarm the trap only once per Hero Cycle.

Yep. I re-read it after Jarad's post. I read it as "If the result matches the Hero being played" rather than "If the result matches a Hero being played"...

Obviously, the rules could have been a little more transparent.
 
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Jarad Bond
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The thing that will change the simulations is that if we play two heroes with the same aspect when we get our new heroes, then one match on the die will equal two hits.
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