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Subject: Ukraine Crisis: Maps! rss

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Hunga Dunga
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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/u...
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Lance McMillan
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Such hospitable folks, those Russians: "I say, you chaps look a triffle chilly! Let us embrace you and keep you warm in the bosom of Mother Russia!" whistle
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Jonathan "Spartan Spawn, Sworn, Raised for Warring!"
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Nice to see our 'Friendly Russian Warship' Smetlivy from our Honeymoon again.
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Tim Korchnoi
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It was only a matter of time before the Bear awoke from his slumber....
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Jur dj
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catosulla wrote:
It was only a matter of time before the Bear awoke from his slumber....


... if you make enough noise in front of his lair and steal his honey

#straighttoRSP
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Edmund Hon
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Rockhopper01 wrote:
No hexes. Not a wargame.


It uses Area Movement.
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Robert Wesley
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Rockhopper01 wrote:
No hexes. Not a wargame.
Taskforce 58 wrote:


It uses Area Movement.
surprise~"I can see Russia swallowing the Ukraine-neighborhood from my house!"
whistle~"Fair's 'fair' Henry, if we 'screw Ukraine' and *PUNCH* Frank Burns, then do WE get "off" Scot-free?..."
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Tonny Wille
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Looks interesting for a future COIN game. Even the 4 factions are know:
The Russians
The NAVO
The Ukraine goverment
The separatists

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Simon
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it could make a good coin game, but might require some adaptations to the system. You do have 4 factions, but you don't have the full sweep of actions from the other COIN games (search and destroy, mobilize guerrillas etc). ON top of this issues such as how much support from their generals do the current government have? What impact will external politics between the US and Russia have? What will happen at the May elections and how will that be modeled? And equally what actually are the objectives of each faction? Do the separatists want to join Russia, or do they want to be an independent but satellite nation? Or do they simply want a better shake from a Kiev government. Does Russia actually want to annex eastern Ukraine? Is it just opportunistic? Or does it see all this as a means to an end in protect people who see themselves as ethnic Russians? What about Svaboda and the right wing groups? Are they shadow puppets or actual players? Even if a peaceful solution is found, will the Midan actually accept it, or will they oust the government?

And then there is the ultimate question. Who is going to pay the gas bill? since that is what this whole thing is about anyway. If its an IMF loan will the Ukrainian government put in place the welfare cuts? Will Ukrainians actually accept said cuts? Even with the loans does Ukraine have a viable economy?

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Roger Hobden
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Most areas of Ukraine have been tied to the history of Russia for thousands of years, including playing an important part of the origins of russia itself during the Kievan Rus' period.

Russia has more legitimate grounds to wish for a reuniting of at least part of those territories, in comparison to 99 % of the political conflicts in the past 300 years in Europe.
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My prediction is that Putin follows Hitler's Sudetenland formula. Put incredible pressure on Ukraine. Pro-Russian militias cause martial issues. As soon as the Ukrainians begin seeing success, claim that Russian citizens within the Ukraine are being persecuted by a ruthless government or local population ... move their military in to protect Russian citizens. The test will be whether appeasement has had its day in the sun or not. My suspicion is that financial pressure may be enough to head off a wider and more serious conflict.
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Russ Williams
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medlinke wrote:
My suspicion is that financial pressure may be enough to head off a wider and more serious conflict.

But financial pressure would also hurt the profits of those who trade with Russia, so it's unclear how much financial pressure will actually happen.
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Simon
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Europe is fairly dependent on Russian gas. I don't see Angie rocking the boat too much. Its relatively easy for the US to talk big on economic sanctions but other than cutting off their own trade or freezing Kremlin club bank accounts I don't think they can do a great deal.

Secondly, in my view, Putin believes in what he is doing, and will have anticipated the fiscal cost. I expect he will be willing to swallow the economic pill.
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Darrell Hanning
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Russia has outplayed the U.S., on this one. Nothing to be proud of, regarding this situation.
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Ben Delp
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DukeofChutney wrote:
Secondly, in my view, Putin believes in what he is doing, and will have anticipated the fiscal cost. I expect he will be willing to swallow the economic pill.


I expect he will be willing to swallow the economic pill because he absolutely cannot be seen caving to the West. It would do too much damage to his "tough guy" persona at home.
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delp1871 wrote:
DukeofChutney wrote:
Secondly, in my view, Putin believes in what he is doing, and will have anticipated the fiscal cost. I expect he will be willing to swallow the economic pill.


I expect he will be willing to swallow the economic pill because he absolutely cannot be seen caving to the West. It would do too much damage to his "tough guy" persona at home.


Not to mention that the "economic pill" is a mighty small one. The western sanctions are basically symbolic, and once investors realise the West will do nothing of substance, the effects on the Russian economy will be minimal.
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The specifics are still very much being debated that's for sure! http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/eu-iss...

The interesting thing will be whether Russia CAN weather an ever escalating series of restrictions. Right now they're targeted to put personal pressure on Putin, but that's a pretty lousy situation given that Putin can simply dole out favors or soften the blow.

What's clear is that the current iteration of sanctions are ineffective - http://www.ibtimes.com/new-russia-sanctions-will-have-little...

I still think that core question will be whether appeasement has had its day in the sun.
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medlinke wrote:
The specifics are still very much being debated that's for sure! http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/eu-iss...

The interesting thing will be whether Russia CAN weather an ever escalating series of restrictions. Right now they're targeted to put personal pressure on Putin, but that's a pretty lousy situation given that Putin can simply dole out favors or soften the blow.

What's clear is that the current iteration of sanctions are ineffective - http://www.ibtimes.com/new-russia-sanctions-will-have-little...

I still think that core question will be whether appeasement has had its day in the sun.


Who is there to challenge appeasement? Ukraine can fight or not, but the end result is probably about the same. NATO has no obligations to Ukraine and will do nothing. The UN will do nothing. Economic sanctions stand to hurt the sanctioners more than they're willing to risk. Moral of the story: It sucks to be next to Russia and have no allies.
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Hunga Dunga
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The Grinch wrote:
Moral of the story: It sucks to be next to Russia and have no allies.

And it's not like Ukraine is a bastion of liberty and democracy. They're one of the most corrupt governments in the world, and we haven't even mentioned the Ukrainian mafia.

My question is, even if Russia decides to annex Ukraine in its entirety, what do we lose?
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Bill Lawson
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Hungadunga wrote:
The Grinch wrote:
Moral of the story: It sucks to be next to Russia and have no allies.

And it's not like Ukraine is a bastion of liberty and democracy. They're one of the most corrupt governments in the world, and we haven't even mentioned the Ukrainian mafia.

My question is, even if Russia decides to annex Ukraine in its entirety, what do we lose?


If by what do "we" lose you are referring to the U.S. I suppose the answer is not much.
Everything you say about the Ukraine also applies to Russia. The Ukraine however is not trying to annex its neighbors.
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Greg Sager
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I have no further territorial ambitions.
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Чебурашка, ты настоящий друг!
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Mallet wrote:
Most areas of Ukraine have been tied to the history of Russia for thousands of years, including playing an important part of the origins of russia itself during the Kievan Rus' period.

Russia has more legitimate grounds to wish for a reuniting of at least part of those territories, in comparison to 99 % of the political conflicts in the past 300 years in Europe.


That anyone can write this in the 21st century saddens me. The claim "that territory was once part of our country" is precisely what makes the current conflict no different than "99 % of the political conflicts in the past 300 years in Europe".

The desires of the inhabitants of a area provide legitimacy, not spurious historical claims. In February, an opinion poll indicated that no more than 41% of the Crimea wanted to join Russia, in Donetsk around 30% and elsewhere less than that.

Even then, your history is miles off. Let's let "thousands of years" go by as hyperbole: of course, Russia hasn't existed for that long--nor has any European state!. Indeed, strictly speaking, the territories that make up today's Ukraine (with the exception of Crimea) haven't been part of anything called Russia since 1918: from 1922, it was part of the Soviet Union, not Russia (or, rather, the RSFSR), and after the Second World War it had its own seat in the UN.

The idea that Kyivan Rus' is the birthplace of Russia is a later invention that used the earlier polity as a foundation myth in order to justify expansion: Vladimir-Suzdal (the forerunner of Moscovy and, in turn, Russia) was just one of many principalities of Rus', and has as much claim to its "legacy" (whatever that is) as, say, Galicia-Volhynia. It's true that the metropolitan of Kyiv settled in Moscow in the 14th century, but I find it rather weird to use that as a justification for the invasion of a state in the 21st century.

Of course, if you want to continue your apologetics for the authoritarian, corrupt, homophobic, xenophobic, expansionist and criminal regime of Vladimir Putin, be my guest.

EDIT: if that doesn't send this thread to RSP, nothing will.
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Ben Delp
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Salo sila wrote:
if that doesn't send this thread to RSP, nothing will.


Hopefully just AWOL, our "RSP lite". That'll give it at least a shot at staying civil.
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Ben Delp
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Hungadunga wrote:
My question is, even if Russia decides to annex Ukraine in its entirety, what do we lose?


Face. Perhaps it could have been played off (propaganda-wise) if the US/EU did absolutely nothing. But since something was done, we're invested now. We can't suddenly pretend we don't care; that would be disingenuous (and make the actions already taken seem cavalier and arbitrary in their establishment).
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(Yes, I know it's a flawed analogy, but I like it anyway.)
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