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Subject: Caprice Psi Game Patterns rss

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Mike P
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Has anyone noticed any patterns or tendencies in the Psi-Game, especially with Caprice? I've noticed that runners tend to throw 0 more often then not but I wonder if there are some patterns depending on how high the stakes are and how many credits each side has. For instance, to keep things simple, could we generalize into these types of situations? I'm just kind of spitballing some guesses based on what I feel like what I've been seeing, but it hasn't been formal in any way. I'm almost tempted to start to keep track myself.

Have you guys seen any trends?


High Stakes

Corp Rich Corp Poor
Runner Rich 1/2 1/1
Runner Poor 0/2 0/1

Low Stakes

Corp Rich Corp Poor
Runner Rich 1/1 1/0
Runner Poor 0/0 0/0


*First number being runner's spend and the 2nd number being corp's spend
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Nate K
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Eh. I just always bet 1 (as Corp). The Runner, for some reason, almost always goes with 0 or 2 in high-stakes psi games, so 1 is usually pretty safe.
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Scott West
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I don't remember ever losing at a Psi game as the runner. Knowing the credit pool and my opponent's tendencies makes is reasonably straight forward to figure out the right answer.
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Jeremy Hager
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I usually go 0. I want them to pay for it or not get it. It works out really well for me.
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Sasha F
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profligate wrote:
I don't remember ever losing at a Psi game as the runner. Knowing the credit pool and my opponent's tendencies makes is reasonably straight forward to figure out the right answer.


There are assumptions that can be made based on the board state to aid a Psi game bet, but we all know what they say about assumptions. I will not argue that understanding the psychology of betting, coupled with pattern observation could help psi games. The fact of the matter remains, any successful system you think you have for guessing what is often a random number, is a statistical anomaly rather than certainty.

I usually come up with lines of reasoning why my opponent will bet a certain way. Sometimes I'm right. I think with a big enough data set I'd be right just about 33% of the time (given the situation that both corp and runner have at least 2 credits).

That aside, specifically with Caprice, the name of the game is guaranteeing success. If you can get the corp down to 0 creds, Psi games are going to go in your favor. Run a suspected Caprice server before the Corp has the money to rez Ice, Caprice, and still have money left over for the Psi games. If caprice is already rezzed, but in a cheap server to access, wait till the Corp is poor and run it. If the corp is down to 1 credit, it will take a maximum of two runs to guarantee access (if you bet 0 at each of the Psi games). Obviously if you're paying 4+ credits to get past all the ice, this may not be advisable. On the other hand if the server only costs a couple credits to get through all the ice, don't be intimidated by the effectively "wasted" credits. Spending two clicks 5 credits now to trash her may be preferable to paying 8 credits to get through the ice later and still getting kicked out by Caprice.

Edit: The strategy of running Caprice repeatedly, while always betting 0 to tax the runner into bankruptcy, is obviously useless against Jinteki players using the Nisei Division identity.

I think this is the more important facet of dealing with Caprice. Rather than worrying about how to guess right, figure out when to access.
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Jeremy Hager
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I meant that as Jinteki, I typically bid zero.
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Simon C
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PraetorianXVIII wrote:
I meant that as Jinteki, I typically bid zero.


...in which case they either pay for it and lose, or don't pay anything and get in?
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Jeremy Hager
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can't get anything by you
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Daniel Wray
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LeonardQuirm wrote:
PraetorianXVIII wrote:
I meant that as Jinteki, I typically bid zero.


...in which case they either pay for it and lose, or don't pay anything and get in?


MINDGAMES!
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Lluluien
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LeonardQuirm wrote:
PraetorianXVIII wrote:
I meant that as Jinteki, I typically bid zero.


...in which case they either pay for it and lose, or don't pay anything and get in?


The irony here is that the more people who think this play is lunacy, the better that play is, because if it's unexpected, the Runner isn't countering it by picking the right choice for access, but the Corp still isn't paying and the Runner is.

But then I know that you know that I know....mindgames? And we're back to 33%


Edit: That's not to say OP's idea about tracking this might not be useful. There probably is some pattern of thought that we're susceptible to here that makes one play better than another in given situations, the question is - which one?
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Chris Long
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kurthl33t wrote:
Eh. I just always bet 1 (as Corp). The Runner, for some reason, almost always goes with 0 or 2 in high-stakes psi games, so 1 is usually pretty safe.


Good ol' Rock. Nothing beats that.
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Gregory Pettigrew
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radynski wrote:
kurthl33t wrote:
Eh. I just always bet 1 (as Corp). The Runner, for some reason, almost always goes with 0 or 2 in high-stakes psi games, so 1 is usually pretty safe.


Good ol' Rock. Nothing beats that.


I play a lot of Mind's Eye Theater, which is the LARP System for the World of Darkness, so I see a lot of Rock-Paper-Scissors. Everyone knows everyone always throws Rock. A smart person, therefore, would always throw Paper. Gamers, thinking they're smarter than other Gamers, always throw Scissors. One night, a friend of mine threw Scissors 38/50 times.

The irony here is that if you want to beat a Gamer at Rock-Paper-Scissors, throw Rock. Good ol' Rock. Nothing beats that.
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Richard Linnell
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The correct answer is that if you can determine the relative values of winning the game to both the corp and the runner, then you can develop a Nash equilibrium and bid according to that. Assuming that the 0-2 credits bid on the game are a significant part of the payout, the equilibrium will tend towards zero being played more often.
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Mike P
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I'm pretty curious about multi-round caprice games, where the runner has to make repeated runs on an expensive tower of ice.

There's been some news out lately about rock paper scissors and how the optimal strategy might defy the nash equillibrium and tap into a hard wired human response with a 'win-stay lose-shift' strategy is known in game theory as a conditional response.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/05/02/308953770/roc...

I think they state that if a player loses, their next choice tends to be a shift into a predictable next sequence, wheras winners tend to stay with the same choice.

I know the psi-game is a bit different, but I can't help but notice that there are some emotional responses that make this game not strictly 1/3 in real practice... and some people are very good at guessing while others are not. I think it's worth seeing what people's reasoning or thought processes are in picking their numbers.
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Lluluien
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For what it's worth as a hideously un-scientific anecdote, I've had really good luck with bidding 2 when there's an obvious reason to bid 0, bidding 0 when there's an obvious reason to bid 2, and bidding 1 otherwise. Only lost 1 so far (as Runner or Corp) out of about 10.

Tim, if you're reading this:

[insert picture of Men-in-Black mind eraser ray here]
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David
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Personally I always bid 0 as the runner and only ever run a rez'd Caprice when the corp is either on zero or the run is free/cheap and using Caprice will get them to zero.
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Grish Noren
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bayushi_david wrote:
Personally I always bid 0 as the runner and only ever run a rez'd Caprice when the corp is either on zero or the run is free/cheap and using Caprice will get them to zero.


If you can corner a caprice player into that situation then they're doing it wrong; but that is totally the right play. You can run a caprice and drain the corp for as much as a siphon would by just paying 0 over and over. I learned the hard way to avoid this situation.

That said, I try not to be predictable. I sometimes roll a die. I sometimes just loop over the numbers, then reverse after a predetermined number at the beginning. I try as the corp to disassociate my pick from the current game state, or pick the option that seems least likely.

But really, you shouldn't ever be playing the caprice game unless she's on a central, and she's really really good on R&D with some heavy ice out front.

Caprice needs to be played in a taxing server only. Anything else and you're doing it wrong. In RP, pup, eli, ash, & caprice make a lovely remote. But if you throw an archer on the outside, well... game over
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Brad McCoy
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kurthl33t wrote:
Eh. I just always bet 1 (as Corp). The Runner, for some reason, almost always goes with 0 or 2 in high-stakes psi games, so 1 is usually pretty safe.


I personally have had very bad luck with betting 1 as the corp.

Anecdotal evidence ftw
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Andrew Keddie
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I am really puzzled that I have yet to engage in a Psi-game in Netrunner.

Like, ever.

Not even at Chronos (although there WERE people playing Caprice there, I didn't play any of them). I hit a Bullfrog once, but I had Ice Carver and Yog...

Ah well, regionals Saturday - I'm sure I'll get my first taste of pain XD
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Beyer
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lluluien wrote:
For what it's worth as a hideously un-scientific anecdote, I've had really good luck with bidding 2 when there's an obvious reason to bid 0, bidding 0 when there's an obvious reason to bid 2, and bidding 1 otherwise. Only lost 1 so far (as Runner or Corp) out of about 10.

Tim, if you're reading this:


Fixt.
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Lluluien
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Stunke wrote:
Fixt.


Most excellent laugh
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Jonathan Trew
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Stunke wrote:
lluluien wrote:
For what it's worth as a hideously un-scientific anecdote, I've had really good luck with bidding 2 when there's an obvious reason to bid 0, bidding 0 when there's an obvious reason to bid 2, and bidding 1 otherwise. Only lost 1 so far (as Runner or Corp) out of about 10.

Tim, if you're reading this:


Fixt.


FTFY
mines better
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