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The Castles of Burgundy» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Odds when you desperately need a particular roll rss

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Brian Coppedge
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I crunched some numbers, so I might as well share:

Suppose you desperately need to roll a particular pair of numbers. Here are your chances of success:

Needed Workers Success With #8
1,1 0 2.8% 2.8
1,1 1 13.9 25.0
1,1 2 36.1 75.0
1,1 3 63.9 97.2
1,1 4 86.1 100
1,1 5 97.2 100
1,1 6 100 100

Needed Workers Success With #8
1,2 0 5.6% 5.6
1,2 1 22.2 44.4
1,2 2 50.0 94.4
1,2 3 77.8 100
1,2 4 94.4 100
1,2 5 100 100

Needed Workers Success With #8
1,3 0 5.6% 5.6
1,3 1 27.8 44.4
1,3 2 63.9 94.4
1,3 3 91.7 100
1,3 4 100 100

Needed Workers Success With #8
1,4 0 5.6% 5.6
1,4 1 27.8 50.0
1,4 2 72.2 100
1,4 3 100 100


Needed: Your desired roll. Only the distance between the numbers matters, so for example 3,4 is equivalent to 1,2, and 2,5 is equivalent to 1,4.

Workers: The number of workers you're prepared to spend.

Success: Your % chance to successfully obtain both numbers.

With #8: Your improved chance to succeed, if you have the #8 "improved workers" knowledge tile.

The three "free worker when placing ___" knowledge tiles were not considered.
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Jens www.spielefreun.de
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Doea anybody read this, anyway?
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If you desperately need a particular roll, the odds are exactly 0%.

I know this from experience.
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Andrew Massengale
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Motorkopf wrote:
If you desperately need a particular roll, the odds are exactly 0%.

I know this from experience.


Lol, this is so true.

"Come on, anything close to a 6-4".

Double 2.

"Well, fuck."
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