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1775: Rebellion» Forums » General

Subject: Turn 1 - GAME OVER man! rss

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Ron Glass
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All, I pulled the following post/response from the strategy section re: American turn 1 placement. Please review it then see my comments after.


Quote:
The chance of not drawing the double-warship at the start is (7/8) x (6/7) x (5/6) = 5/8.

The chance of drawing neither double-warship NOR any cards that give Hessians for the British is (5/8) x (4/7) x (3/6) = 5/28.

The chance of drawing no Hessian reinforcements is (6/8) x (5/7) x (4/6) = 5/14.

The chance of drawing neither ANY warships (single or double) NOR any cards that give Hessians for the British is (3/8) x (2/7) x (1/6) = 1/56.

The chance of drawing both is a little trickier to figure out. You have a 3/8 chance of drawing double warship (1 - 5/8) on round one, and a 9/14 chance of drawing some form of Hessian reinforcements (1 - 5/14). I don't think you can straight up multiply those to get the exact probability of both, but let's say the ballpark is 27/112 or roughly just a little under 25% of the time (24%).

Then of course the odds of the British getting the first move are 25% as well. So I'd say the odds of that particular situation are no better than 6-10%.

---------------------

Did you get a lot of Flee results or something? If you had CD's, you could have sent cubes into MA/NY and then counterattack, or gone for another state like NH.

---------------------

There are three ways I have seen Americans place their initial cubes:

(1) Overload RI/CT

(2) Overload NH/ME (my favorite, if the British go first and don't defend those)

(3) Overload MD, with the idea of marching to DE if the British don't dump all or almost all of their cubes there when they start first.

Note that I always add an American Regular to middle GA so that when I get the Savannah French, I can move in an American army to take it back. And when I'm the British, I add a couple British Regulars in NC/SC to make sure the Americans can't take SC easily.



That being reviewed, our group has played this 5 times, and the British have drawn the 6-cube Hessian reinforcements + the double Warship card twice...AND... have either gone first on the cube draw, or been first with the Tories 2nd, on those 2 times. In addition to the extra 6 Hessian cubes, plus the 4 British cubes (10 extra on top of the 4 random cubes placed before the game starts (+14??), and in 1 case, the extra Tory cubes (min 4 + any Fleds).

When the Americans finally went, they had NO colonies, were able to place NO units, got only GA as a colony, and by the end of turn 2 had NO presence north of VA. Both games we called after turn 3 as by then VA was gone as was GA.

I point this out that while we all like the game, and agree it is NOT broken, this combo is a game killer. Odds not withstanding, it does, and WILL, happen.

We are looking at a minor adjustment that will not change the game, but minimize this occurrence.

1 option that will make it less likely is to automatically set the start cube as the American Regulars, like 1812. Does not make "Game Over Turn 1" (GOT1) impossible, but harder.

Another option was to preset the starting card hands based on historical realities. Not too popular an idea, as so much research might be needed into what the start hands should be, and their consequences.

Will gladly entertain thoughts on ideas for an adjustment, or even if an adjustment ought to be made.

Remember, goal is only to minimize GOT1, or make it harder.

Thanks
Ron
 
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Jay Sachs
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Your odds look a little off since they don't take into account hands with 1 or 2 events in them. I'm no statistician, but I hacked a quick Java program to simulate the hand deal. Given 2 Hessian cards and 1 Double-warship in the mix, the chance of getting at least one Hessian and the Double-warship is 8.7%. Combining in the 25% chance of the Brits going first makes it more like 2.2% chance of that happening.

EDIT: actually Brits first or Tories first + Brits second are equivalent. So that is .25+.25*.33 = .3325, which ups the overall probability to 2.9%.
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Ron Glass
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The odds were not my calcs.

I copied the reply that contained this from a post in the strategy section re: First turn American placement. I felt it was worth repeating, regardless of relative accuracy, to show that while odds are low, when it does happen, its GOT1.

Also, I do not think the 2nd Hessian card, which I think has only 2 reinforcements, is on the same level as a game killer.

Ron
 
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Kevin Duke
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It can happen. It almost never does.

Thousands of people have played tens of thousands of games. How many have mentioned this?

I've played or demoed about 50 and it hasn't happened in any of them. What has happened is one side getting way ahead (but the game not ending because the Truce cards don't come out) and the other side coming from way behind and making it very close, pulling out a win, or (a surprisingly high number of times) pulling off a tie.

The couple times (out of 50) where the game has ended on Turn 3, everyone was quite ready to play again.


Changing the starting set up for every game to address "what if a meteorite comes through the ceiling?" is something hardly anyone else has found any need for. But if it makes you happy, have at it.

Just realize you aren't playing the same game that the rest of us are very happy with.
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Ron Glass
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Glad to hear this hasn't happened to you. It's very disheartening for a game that we all like. And we do usually restart right away.

But twice in 5 games?!?! Really?

Ron
 
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Brian S.
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kduke wrote:
Changing the starting set up for every game to address "what if a meteorite comes through the ceiling?" is something hardly anyone else has found any need for.
I'm living my life as if the odds of a meteorite crashing through my ceiling are significantly less than 2.9%.

I wouldn't bother altering the game setup to address an issue that can be fixed simply by playing again, but the OP did say the game wasn't broken and he liked it.
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Randall Shaw
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"What has happened is one side getting way ahead (but the game not ending because the Truce cards don't come out) and the other side coming from way behind and making it very close, pulling out a win, or (a surprisingly high number of times) pulling off a tie."

While the outlier the OP has noted doesn't bother me, the bolded part above is becoming a concern. I have a copy of 1775 coming as part of the Fief KS and I'm not sure I want to play a game which many times ends in a tie, no matter how much fun it is to play.

I recently played 1812 for the first time and this happened. I put a pretty good move on my opponent by using back to back Truce Card plays (something I thought would be relatively uncommon and difficult to counter, especially when combined with the Harrison card) but he then had no problem making moves which allowed him to gain a tie.

That situation, plus the ability of the 'Homeland' player to virtually always conduct 'First Fire', really soured me on 1812. I understand the 'First Fire' issue isn't present in 1775 but the 'Tie' issue sounds like it is.

How many times have you seen a tie in your playings of 1775, kduke?
 
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Jay Sachs
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ronglass wrote:
The odds were not my calcs.

I copied the reply that contained this from a post in the strategy section re: First turn American placement. I felt it was worth repeating, regardless of relative accuracy, to show that while odds are low, when it does happen, its GOT1.

Also, I do not think the 2nd Hessian card, which I think has only 2 reinforcements, is on the same level as a game killer.

Ron


If you only take into account the first Hessian card, the odds go down to 1.6%.

Given the low odds, my preference (were I inclined to do this, which I'm not, I don't think) would be to be more surgical about the changes. Something like: for the Brits first hand, they remove either the double warship or the Hessian event(s) -- their choice but hidden from others --then draw their hand, and finally replace the removed card and reshuffle.
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Steve Duke
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I am the other Duke and have had at least two ties in my 20 plus 4p games.

I can tell you I was the side that got the tie and I was damn thankful and completely satisfied with it.

Being beaten like a drum for most of the game and then managing to claw back to at least some level of respectability was quite satisfying for my side.
 
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Randall Shaw
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"Being beaten like a drum for most of the game and then managing to claw back to at least some level of respectability was quite satisfying for my side."

No doubt. However, in my example, I was that side. And then to see your opponent, the guy who'd been running you ragged for most of the game, just skate with ease* out of a situation which appeared pretty tough, leaves a sour taste. One I'd rather not repeat on a regular basis.

*To be fair, he did sweat a little; it took him 5 minutes or so to see his way out of the loss.
 
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Steve Duke
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I don't follow you. Which side were you?
 
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Randall Shaw
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The side which, while not being beaten 'like a drum', was being 'run ragged' for most of the game.
 
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Randall Shaw
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Believe me, over 40 years of gaming has toughened my skin considerably. Its also afforded me a very refined idea of what I consider 'fun'. That's why I'm trying to find out what percentage of ties I can expect from designs with these mechanics.

10% isn't too bad but 50% or more would be; anyone else out there with some data points? cool
 
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Randall Shaw
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On the contrary, I'd not be asking for more information if I were overreacting.

I'd just be asking if anyone wanted a copy of 1775...cheap.
 
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Randall Shaw
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"Play some more."

Oh definitely. Probably even 1812, tho I'd rather play 1775. Unfortunately, no one I game with has 1775 and my copy isn't coming until later in the summer. If I'm being honest, however, given the demographics in my current groups, the available opportunities with either game will be meagre at best.

"Whatever."

Not 'whatever'; simply a quest for more info. After all, not really optimal to only rely on my own meagre experience. I mean, not if I have options. And all one should have to do is ask, right?
 
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Bill the Pill
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I've had far, far, less ties in 1775 than 1812; for 1775 less than 5% of the time.
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Randall Shaw
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Now that's the sort of info I'm looking for.
 
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Steve Duke
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2 ties in 20 games.
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Alex Drazen
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No more than 3 ties in 20+ base games. Siege of Quebec scenario, however, is more prone to ties (maybe 20%) than the base game.
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Glenn Russell
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A better counter for this is either for the Americans to place all of their initial cubes in Rhode Island, or to plan on losing a muster and counterattacking to take a colony. Losing one muster on the first turn is nowhere near a total loss.
 
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