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Unconditional Surrender! World War 2 in Europe» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Mobile vs Assault rss

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Marc Hanna
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Assumptions:

Two Infantry units can attack the same hex. Goal is to take the hex.
Assume the units can attack only twice in mobile combat.
Used USE_Prod_Tracker_v03.xls CRT calculator to calculate base probabilities assuming accuracy.
Weather is Fair.

Set 1: Attacker +2 Defender +1 final drms

One unit attacks twice: Success P = 54%
Both units attack twice: Success P = 79%
Both Units assault once: Success P = 50%
A third assaulting inf (not participating in mobile attacks): Success P = 64%

Conclusion: take the hex using mobile attacks, no chance of losing an attacking step each roll. Also, it may rbe reasonable to conclude that any attack with +3 differential is better to go mobile, but a more comprehensive set of calculations is needed to verify that.

Set 2: Attacker +1 Defender +1 final drms

One unit attacks twice: Success P = 38%
Both units attack twice: Success P = 61%
Both Units assault once: Success P = 36%
A third assaulting inf (not participating in mobile attacks): Success P = 50%

Conclusion: take the hex using mobile attacks; 3% chance each roll attacker attrition.

Set 3: Attacker +1 Defender +2 final drms

One unit attacks twice: Success P = 21%
Both units attack twice: Success P = 38%
Both Units assault once: Success P = 22%
A third assaulting inf (not participating in mobile attacks): P = 34%

Conclusion: take the hex using mobile attacks, but 8% chance each roll attacker attrition.

Set 4: Attacker +0 Defender +2 final drms

One unit attacks twice: Success P = 11%
Both units attack twice: Success P = 21%
Both Units assault once: Success P = 14%
A third assaulting inf (not participating in mobile attacks): Success P = 22%

Conclusion: take the hex using mobile attacks, but 17% chance each roll attacker attrition.

These dice drm combos show up a lot when infantry is attacking infantry without any supporting air/tanks/ground support. However, it appears that there is not enough kick to assaulting as far as infantry with only two or even three units involved (EXC: Set 4). Higher drms do mean less attacker casualties, though, so assaulting is a safer attack, albeit with less chance of success.

I've got a spreadsheet but it's not pretty nor comprehensive so I won't upload it; however, it may be possible to integrate with the CRT calculator to get the full range of results. I've doublechecked these calcs but someone may find a mistake somewhere and please do point it out
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simon thornton
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Out of interest do these take into account that a particulalry badly rolled mobile attack may end the attacking units activation for the turn . This eliminating a possible second mobile attack and alters overall success odds considerably .
 
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Marc Hanna
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bluekingzog wrote:
Out of interest do these take into account that a particulalry badly rolled mobile attack may end the attacking units activation for the turn . This eliminating a possible second mobile attack and alters overall success odds considerably .


Yes. The conditional probabilities were calculated accordingly.
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Steve Carey
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Mobile attacks have another benefit that's hard to calculate because it's situational, namely the possible creation of a temporary 'No EZOC' (i.e., a breakthrough) in an eliminated defender's hex.

Obtaining the flexibility of being able to move through a 'No EZOC' hex (by not being required to either attack again or halt in that hex) can be quite powerful in both theory and practice.
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Salvatore Vasta
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Nice. Please send me the spreadsheet. I'll see what I can do to get it into the CRT Calculator.

The relative attacker safety in an Assault is a good benefit, especially when there is the possibility of an event being added to one side or the other. Or when someone with Vasta Luck is rolling the die.

Sal
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Marc Hanna
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svasta wrote:
Nice. Please send me the spreadsheet. I'll see what I can do to get it into the CRT Calculator.

Sal


Happy to! but first I'll annotate the spreadsheet so you won't have to reverse engineer the formulas; please look for it on 5/24.

Marc
 
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