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Subject: Strategic Scenario (at start) rss

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Mitchell Land
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Working through the Strategic Scenario. Here's the entire thing set up:



Amazingly, both the US and Japan roll an Aggressive Posture which, in the Strategic Scenario, is a Level 3 intervention. That includes: Supplies, Intel, Special Operations Forces (Level 1), Naval & Air (Level 2), and USMC & Airborne (Level 3):



(Notice that the SSR states that half (rounded up) of each aircraft type has to move to the Flown Box.)

I've decided to use quite a few of the optional rules which has driven the starting VP for the PRC to 20 and for the ROC to 10:



On the Naval Display you can see the Japanese SAG in the Japan Holding Box, the PRC CVBG and SAG in the PRC Holding Box, and the 2 ROC SAGs in the Taiwan Straits In Shore Box (sorry for the glare):



And, finally, in the on-map PRC Holding Box [note that on-map and Naval Display Holding Boxes are functionally the same place] you can see the initial starting forces for the PRC, 12 Marine battalions and 3 Airborne Divisions:



Next up is the pre-game (per SSR) PRC Cruise Missile attacks to try and knock down some of the ROC defenses.



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Dan Stueber
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Awesome!! Let's see how far the PRC can get....

Dan
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Mitchell Land
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BooBoo130 wrote:
Awesome!! Let's see how far the PRC can get....

Dan


With both the US and Japan rolling Aggressive, it's going to be hard on the PRC. In this situation, normally I'd invoke the "2nd Korean War" option to take some of the pressure off. This basically is similar to the Taiwan option in Next War: Korea but does not require you to actually have that game (combining the games is handled with separate rules). This option merely makes it more difficult for the US to send reinforcements to Taiwan since some of them will head for the Korean peninsula instead. In this instance, I think I'd like to see how the PRC can handle it on its own.
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Mitchell Land
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Pre-game PRC Cruise Missile strikes
- Allocated 4 against Air Defense Tracks even though they are long odds - 1 hit
- Allocated 6 against airbases - 5 hits (3 Strike 2s and 3 Strike 1s) resulting in 3 Air Units hit in Collateral Damage





GT1
• Weather - PRC chooses Clear (SSR)
• Initiative - PRC (SSR)
• Electronic Detection
○ PRC attempts to detect 8th and 10th and finds the 10th Corps
○ Allies don't roll (no PRC HQs on map)
• First Special Ops Phase
○ PRC gets to use twice w/o rolling for survival on the first go round (SSR)
§ 1st Round Targets: 2 Raids vs. Detection (1 hit for -2, 1 miss), 1 vs. SAMS (1 hit for -2), attempts to Recon 6th and 8th Corps (finds 8th Corps), and Target 10th Corp HQ (misses)
§ 2nd Round Targets: 3 Raids vs. Detection (1 hit for -1), 1 vs. SAMs (miss), Target 8th and 10th Corps (both successful [-1 Target placed]) - all survived
• Air/Naval Phase
○ Allies opt not to contest the skies
○ PRC went big just in case
○ Air Superiority is checked against a nominal 1 = PRC Supremacy
○ AWACs Advantage = PRC 1



○ Sea Control
§ Roll first for all In Shore Boxes not controlled by the player controlling the associated At Sea Box
□ Taiwan Straits In Shore (currently Contested) - PRC Control (-3 DRM) - both ROC SAGs opt to retreat to Kaohsiung rather than stay and incur a Strike 1 hit
□ Paracels In Shore (currently Contested) - PRC Control (-6 DRM)
§ Roll next for any enemy or Contested At Sea Boxes adjacent to Allied-controlled At Sea Boxes (if any of those are PRC-controlled after rolling, then roll for the adjacent Allied box)
□ East China Sea - PRC control
® Must now roll for Sea of Japan - PRC control
® And Ryukus - PRC control
□ Taiwan Straits - PRC control
® Roll for Ryukjus - rolled for already
® And Central Approaches - Contested
□ Philippine Sea - Allied control
§ And always roll for the Spratlys - Contested
○ Naval detection - skipped, all units in Port
○ Mine Clearing - skipped, not on GT1 and no mines on map
• Second Special Operations Forces Phase
○ Allies can only attack PRC Air Defense Tracks on GT1 (SSR)
§ 3 ROC & 1 JPN SOF vs. Detection track (1 hit for -1), 1 US vs. SAM
• First Strike Phase
○ No Cruise Missiles (PRC can't on GT1, Allies don't have any yet)
○ With the US and Japan already intervening at Level 3, the PRC decides that attacking Japan can't do any more harm, and launches 3 Air Strikes at the Airbase (which is a nominal target representing all airbases in Japan) in the Japanese Holding Box (2 x H-10, 2 x H6, 2 x JH-7). An Su-30 is assigned to strike each Detected/Targeted HQ, and other units strike at 3 Airbases in Taiwan.
○ The Allies don't have any really good targets and don't wish to brave the Air Defenses on the mainland yet. So, sensing that the PRC might push quickly to invade, they withhold their air in anticipation of flying Combat Support (and 2nd Strike Phase missions)
○ Allies attempt to detect PRC strikes and fire on them with ADF
○ Allies detect several strikes, but have no interceptors, so PRC resolves Strikes along with any ADF
§ The strike on Japan yields 1 Strike 2 and 3 Strike 1 results. Normally, Collateral Damage is rolled at the end of the phase, but, as the Allies have no planes in the air, it can be done immediately. Only 1 air unit is damaged, but the PRC did incur enough damage to earn a Destroyed result and 2 VP.
§ 8th & 10th Corps' accurately directed SAM fire aborts the Su-30s targeting them
§ Of the other strikes, a Strike 1 result is obtained vs. an airbase with no Collateral Damage





○ There are no HQ strikes or Naval Surface Combat
• Supply Phase is skipped

UP NEXT: Initiative Movement and Combat
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Bill Florig
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Mitchell,

Awesome presentation and I am thrilled to see how far the game has progressed. I have had it pre-ordered on P500 since it appeared. I'm headed there next week on Army business. Keep the posts coming! They will generate a lot of discussion. I am curious to see if you have any morale rules for both sides and how accurate the orders of battle are. Also, I like your second Korean War rule. My opinion has always been that if the PRC wants to go for Taiwan we can expect military demonstrations, feints, small scale raids, or other conflicts to be initiated in Korea, with Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and into India in Arunchal Pradesh, and maybe proxy fights in their resource grabs in Africa to keep us and our allies and partners off balance while they go for the objective in Taiwan.

My best,

Bill
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Mitchell Land
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billflorig1 wrote:
I am curious to see if you have any morale rules for both sides and how accurate the orders of battle are.


The units themselves don't have morale, but the Automatic Victory rules make an attempt to capture the essence of national morale.


Quote:
Also, I like your second Korean War rule. My opinion has always been that if the PRC wants to go for Taiwan we can expect military demonstrations, feints, small scale raids, or other conflicts to be initiated in Korea, with Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and into India in Arunchal Pradesh, and maybe proxy fights in their resource grabs in Africa to keep us and our allies and partners off balance while they go for the objective in Taiwan.


Agreed, which is why, in Next War: Korea, the PRC can intervene and the assumption is that they also make an attempt to grab Taiwan thus diverting US resources/reinforcements.

The "2nd Korean War" rule is the same rule except in reverse.

Of course, there's an entire rule section for playing both games simultaneously as well!
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Mitchell Land
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• Initiative Movement and Combat

○ Initiative Movement

§ The PRC CV BG #1 moves in to the Taiwan Straits At Sea box to provide a control DRM and allow the CV's air unit to be more effective - neither is Detected

§ A PRC SAG & AMPH, loaded with 2/1 Marines, enters the Taiwan Straits In Shore Box and the AMPH is Point Detected

§ The PRC 1/1 & 1/164 Marines use Airmobile Movement to land on the Penghu Land Area. Neither is detected.



○ Initiative Combat

§ The PRC Marines Amphibiously Assault Penghu along with the Air Assaulting marines.

□ Initial Odds: 4:3 = 1:1

□ Column Shifts: 1 left for amphibious assault (there is no majority), 1 right (surprise - SSR) = 1:1 in Rough (all Land Areas are considered to be Rough Terrain)

□ Combat Support Allocation: PRC allocates the Zhi-10, the CV air unit (J-15), the AMPH, and the SAG. ROC allocates an F-CK-1.

□ ROC locally detects PRC Attack Helo, but SAMs and AAA miss

□ PRC uses the naval unit ADF values, detects the incoming ROC air unit, and SAM/AAA fire makes the Combat Support ineffective (+3 modifier to a 2 Combat Support strength)

□ Final DRM = -1 (helo), -2 (air unit), -2 (SAG), -1 (AMPH), -1 (light unit) = -7 BUT -6 is max

□ DR = 4 -6 = -2 -> 1/2R - so the defending ROC Marines are eliminated and the PRC player removes the 1/164 Marines. Both sides earn 1 VP.

□ PRC player draws and places a random Clearing Marker on his units in Penghu

○ Elite Reaction Movement - skipped (ROC units may not move until PRC units enter/land on the main island)

○ Exploitation Movement - PRC SAG moves out into the Taiwan Straits At Sea Box and is Area Detected. The PRC AMPH returns to the PRC Holding Box.

○ Exploitation Combat - skipped

○ Reaction Movement - ROC SAGs would like to move into the Taiwan Straits In Shore Box, but a +7 DRM on the Contested Sea Movement DR makes it a moot point, and no ROC ground units are allowed to move. The Japanese Airborne brigade Airmobile Moves to the Senkakus.

• Second Strike Phase

○ PRC elects not to fire any Cruise Missiles ○ US F-16s out of Japan launch a strike against the Detected PRC SAG in the Taiwan Straits At Sea Box



§ F-16s are detected with an interception result, but the only unit which could do so is the PRC CV air unit which is currently in the Flown Box on its carrier and, therefore, ineligible

§ Unfortunately, SAM/AAA fire and lack of naval strike training combine to make the attack ineffective

• Second Supply Phase - skipped, all units are well within supply range

• Basic Movement & Combat Phase

○ Movement - None

○ Combat - skipped

○ Reaction Movement - The Japanese SAG moves into the Ryukus and is not Detected.

• Reorganization Phase

○ All air units move to Ready, except Aborted (none recover)




○ PRC fails to clear Penghu (-1 ROC, -1 Airmobile/Amphibious Assault), +1 (Inf + Mech) = -1 DRM.



○ All Detection & Targeted markers are removed

○ All Strike 1 markers are removed, and Strike 2 markers are reduced

○ Both sides spent Supply Points to increase their Detection Tracks

○ Japan gives 2 Supply Points, US gives 1 (per Master Allied Reinforcements), a US SOF marker arrives as does the 1/82nd Airborne in the Japan Holding Box (because the PRC had some level of Air Superiority)

• Victory

○ PRC earns 3VP

○ ROC earns 1VP

• Game Turn Marker Advance!

Here comes the Allied Air!

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Clifford Mudd
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Great session report. I can't wait to see the rest.
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Bill Florig
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Mitchell,

I'm curious why you use 1/82 first in the game. At Pacific Command our ready reaction Bde is 4/25 Airborne out of Alaska. It is US Army Pacific's ready Airborne Bde and would be first in any Taiwan scenario. 4/25 would be on the ground where needed before any element of the 82nd would be lined up on green ramp. Your thoughts?
 
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Mitchell Land
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billflorig1 wrote:
Mitchell,

I'm curious why you use 1/82 first in the game. At Pacific Command our ready reaction Bde is 4/25 Airborne out of Alaska. It is US Army Pacific's ready Airborne Bde and would be first in any Taiwan scenario. 4/25 would be on the ground where needed before any element of the 82nd would be lined up on green ramp. Your thoughts?


It was already on the Master Allied Reinforcement table that way? That's a good point, though. I'll have to re-do the order of appearance, although you will note, if you have Next War: Korea that it does eventually make an appearance. I don't think I realized that the 4/25th was the Ready Brigade. My assumption was that one of the 82nd's was always on call for that.

Although, I'll be honest...most people will say...one or both of the following:

1 - there's a 25th division?

2 - there are other airborne units than the 82nd?

:-)
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Mitchell Land
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• Weather - Clear (PRC choice by SSR)
• Initiative - PRC (SSR)
○ UN Resolution DR - 4 +1 (Posture DRM) = 5 -> NE
• Electronic Detection - PRC rolls to detect all 3 ROC HQs (this is a recent rules change granting the PRC an extra attempt) -> finds none
• First Special Operations Phase
○ The PRC allocates 3 x SOF to the Detection Track, and 3 to Interdict the roads in central Taiwan
○ Det -1, one Interdiction 2 marker in 3311, and 3 SOF eliminated
• Air/Naval Phase
○ Air Superiority - PRC and Allies both put maximum effort into securing the skies
§ Combat is bloody with 2 air units on each side eliminated, 5 PRC aborted (3 of which are damaged), 9 Allied Aborted (1 of which is damaged), and the F-22 is damaged (although still in the Air Superiority Box - those PRC J-31s ate them for breakfast)









§ Air Superiority Level is 8:5 which is Contested



○ Sea Control
§ In Shore Boxes
□ Paracels (PRC control), Senkakus (PRC control)
§ At Sea Boxes
□ Allies roll for Celebes (Allied control), Central Approaches (remains Contested), Ryukus (becomes Contested), and East China Sea (remains PRC controlled)
□ Always roll for Spratly Islands - stays PRC controlled
□ Recent rule change mandates that if Japan is Aggressive, the Sea of Japan At Sea Box and In Shore Box are considered permanently Allied Controlled
§ Naval Detection
□ PRC rolls for Japanese SAG in Ryukus - Area Detected
□ Allies roll for PRC SAG and CV in Taiwan Straits - SAG is Point Detected, CV is not detected
• 2nd SOF Phase
○ Allies target 3 ROC SOF at PRC Detection, and 2 US and 1 Japanese at PRC SAMs
§ Detection -2 but 2 ROC and the Japanese SOF Eliminated
• 1st Strike Phase
○ PRC allocates Cruise Missile strikes (2 x Japanese SAG, 3 x airbases in the ROC, 2 x Japan Airbase)
§ Missed the SAG, Strike 1 vs. Japan, a Strike 2 and Strike 1 result vs. ROC airbases (Collateral Damage will be assessed later)
○ Non-Allied allocates Air Strikes - intending to invade this turn, the PRC allocates strikes in an attempt to Interdict the roads allowing movement north. The RPC plan, since the US and Japan are both Aggressive making the PRCs time short, is to invade at the northernmost beaches and drive for Taipei.



○ The Allies, again opting to wait for the most part with the small boys, only allocates the 2 Japanese F-2s to Strikes against the PRC Holding Box Airbase. The Long Range bombers, however, come out in force. 1 x B-1B, escorted by 2 F-15s (1 US & 1 JPN) attack the PRC SAG. The 2 B-2s are allocated against the Air Defense Track (1 x Det, 1 x SAM), and the rest are sent against Airbase in the PRC.






○ Braving intense SAM and AAA fire, the B-1B inflicts a Strike 1 result on the PRC SAG which elects to remain in the At Sea Box for now. The B-1B returns to the Recovery Box.
○ The bombing against PRC Airbases (the PRC Holding Box Airbase) results in 2 Strike 2s and 1 Strike 1.
○ The B-2s reduce the Det and SAM tracks by one each
○ The Allies detect only one PRC strike. The PRC Interdiction campaign is only 75% successful, as one critical roadway remains open.



○ All Collateral Damage is now rolled.
§ Collateral Damage is extensive in the ROC as 3 additional air units are damaged
• First Supply Phase - skipped
• Initiative Movement & Combat Phase
○ Initiative Movement - PRC moves 4 AMPHs loaded with marines to the Taiwan Straits In Shore Box. One of those is earmarked to deliver an additional brigade to Penghu to assist in Clearing Operations.



○ Initiative Combat - an additional PRC Marine brigade Amphibiously Assaults Penghu (basically, an administrative method of getting them there since Sea Transport is only allowed to a friendly Land Area)
○ Elite Reaction Movement - skipped
○ Exploitation Movement
§ the AMPH which delivered the brigade to Penghu returns to the PRC Holding Box
§ The other 3 AMPHs enter all-sea hexes preparing for an Amphibious Assault



§ 130 & 131 of the 44th Airborne Division Air Assault (use Airmobile points for Airmobile Movement) into the non-interdicted hex - one is detected by Local Detection and is Aborted by SAM fire
§ Finally, the 43rd Airborne makes a Paradrop into 4507 - none of which are detected, and only 1 bde suffers a bad drop (and is marked with a Strike 1 marker)



○ Exploitation Combat
§ The PRC Marines assault the beaches (unopposed) and place a Beachhead in 4206


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Mitchell Land
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Here's the question I pose to y'all...should the airborne attack one or more of the adjacent hexes. Defend your answer!

§ Should the airborne attack?

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Dan Stueber
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If this is my main landing area I would attack hex 4608 to start to threaten the port just to the southeast of there. Plus hex 4608 is an Airfield and that is always good to capture.

If this is not my main landing area I would attack hex 4509 to capture the city. This would cut both main roads (the one in the city hex and the one just to the north) and force any reinforcements going west to divert to the south side of the island.

Note: I would move the entire division into whichever hex I attacked to try to win the clearing operation this turn.

Dan
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Mitchell Land
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I've been gone for a week, but I should be getting back to this tonight.

BooBoo130 wrote:
If this is my main landing area I would attack hex 4608 to start to threaten the port just to the southeast of there. Plus hex 4608 is an Airfield and that is always good to capture.

If this is not my main landing area I would attack hex 4509 to capture the city. This would cut both main roads (the one in the city hex and the one just to the north) and force any reinforcements going west to divert to the south side of the island.

Note: I would move the entire division into whichever hex I attacked to try to win the clearing operation this turn.

Dan


Since Dan is the only one with a plan, I guess we'll go with #1 since this drop is supporting the main landing area.
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Mitchell Land
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Switching over to a more narrative version. The PRC Airborne attcaks, but is repulsed with a 1/- result. With the failure of this attack, the ROC senses an opportunity and piles into the 3 hexes around the PRC 43rd. The counterattack is vicious, driving the airborne all the way back to the coast. (1/3R)

In the Basic Movement & Combat Phase, the PRC drops another airborne division along the river line facing the ROC 10th Corps and some of the PRC Marines move off the beach to counterattack the ROC units which decimated the 43rd Airborne which ends up reducing two ROC units (-/2).

In the ROC portion of the Phase, they manage to move up and breach the river line. This is potentially very bad news for the precarious PRC Beachhead.
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Mitchell Land
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I had to restart the session from above, unfortunately.

However, in the restart, the US manages to catch loaded AMPHs in the 2nd Strike Phase. The only US planes available are Long Range Bombers.



Unfortunatel for the US, the Naval ADF ABORTED (with rolls of 0 and 1) both US bombers, thus probably saving the AMPHs and the loaded Marines. The PRC breathes a huge sigh of relief.
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Mitchell Land
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Situation at the end of GT4

Here you can see the (finally) secured PRC Beachhead, although it's still precarious.



Here you can see the PRC and Allied Air Forces:




Here's the situation at sea on the Naval Display:



and, finally, here are the losses to date:

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