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Subject: Opinion Poll cards - Distribution Question rss

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Sat Elg
United States
Vast
Ohio
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Hello,

I'm wondering if someone wanted to do some work for me in Die Macher (it might aid you too cool)

I would like to know if there are any patterns to exploit in the 20 opinion poll cards?

The first pass at answering this question I thought would be to see if any party has an advantage over the other in the distribution of the thumbs up vs thumbs down icons.

Consequently I was wondering if someone could count the total thumbs up and total thumbs down for each party to see if there are any differences.


***
Also how is the game not nuked by these cards?

Like playing a game of Lost Cities and bidding on a card that moves the cooperation cards randomly around. Very very brutal mechanic unless someone can illuminate an alternative interpretation?
 
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Tom DeMarco
United States
Cinnaminson
New Jersey
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There are 20 Opinion cards. On each card there are 3 parties with thumbs up (one with 1 thumb up, one with two and one with 3) and two parties with thumbs down (one with 1 down and one with two). Each party sits in each of those five possibilities on four of the cards. So the answer to the first part of your question is no, there is no difference in the number of thumbs each party has, each party will have a flavor of thumbs up on 12 cards, and a flavor of thumbs down on 8 cards.

As to the second part of your question, it is something that has to be accounted for when you are playing and bidding for the polls. Any party can be hurt by an opinion poll, but when a card is bought, its purchaser often chooses not to publish it. Remember, only one or two of the five options on the card may be used, so if the poll shows your party with thumbs down and your main opponent's party with thumbs up, you will roll dice for party members instead. Even if your party's trend is hurt by some other party winning the Opinion card, it is only hurt in one of the four (or less) regions currently in contention; and if that region is not the Current region (in which the election will be resolved this turn), you do not have to convert your party meeting markers into votes yet, so you have some time to try to repair the damage done before the final votes are counted in that region. Also, some times you have to figure the odds. If a thumbs down result for your party has already appeared six times and thumbs up four times, you can figure that you only have a 1 in 4 chance of a thumbs down on the next card.

Actually, it is not quite true that each party ends up with the same number of thumbs up and down. Of the 20 Opinion cards, 4 are used on each of the first four turns (in Regions 1 thru 4 on turn 1, Regions 2 thru 5 on turn 2, 3 thru 6 on turn 3, and Regions 4 thru 7 on turn 4), and then 3 are used on turn 5 (Regions 5 thru 7). On turn 6 the 20th and last card is used for Region 6. The deck is then shuffled, so it will be a random card that will give the final poll for the final Region.

I hope this answer is satisfactory.
 
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Sat Elg
United States
Vast
Ohio
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Tom DeMarco wrote:


I hope this answer is satisfactory.


I don't know yet , but probably. It'll take me a moment or two to digest it. Thanks

[edit: I will withold furthur commentary until I have had a chance to play it and feel the dynamic as a player rather than an observer]
 
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Chris Isaacson
United States
Pennsylvania
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In my madness I call life, I actually took the time to organize and analize the opinion poll cards to see if there was anything to be gained by it. My results were as follows:

1. All colors are "balanced". This means the "thumbs up" and "thumbs down" all add up to the same value (+12 up/ 20 cards). Furthermore, each color has 4 cards for each "slot", so the chance of getting a particular outcome is even among outcomes with replacement.

2. I next looked at the differences between each party amongst its peers. The idea was to see how the other parties were distributed in relation to that party. What I found that among the 10 total relations, there were only 4 patterns. Furthermore, these 4 patterns were actually just 2 patterns with a "mirror", thus each relation pair between colors fell into 1 of 2 possibilities. Theese possibilites I will call "close" and "far". By "close" I mean that the pair tended to move in the same direction as each other, while by "far" the pair tended to move in opposite directions.

3. By organizing each party by "near"/"far", I found that there was a definite balanced pattern. If one takes and orgainizes the parties were they have a "near" party on each side (the "far" parties will end up 2 away in each direction), one ends up with a "ring" that is interconnected and consistent. This "ring" is also bidirectional (there are actaully 2 rings, same order, opposite directions). Note that due to the "mirror" effect of the patterns, both "near" and "far patterns were "ordered". That is to say that with the "far" parings, for instance, it means that generally when party "A" did well, party "X" did horribly, while party "Y" did less so, but due to the "mirror" when "Y" did well, "A" did horribly. So while both "X" and "Y" are "equally far" from "A", there is still some directionality within it.

While I cannot remember the exactness of the order of this "ring" (in either direction! ) I do remember getting a kick out of the fact that it seemed to match real-life political awareness. I will try to recreate this ordering and edit this post when I have the exact order. (for now one should be able to look at a good majority of the cards and see which parties tend to move with and opposite of others)

For gaming:
My first thought was to organize the players of a 5 player game in the same order as the ring (I could not decide between having the player you tended to "damage" the most sit 2 or 3 spots away). I felt that having your "allies" sit next to you while your "enemies" were away from you would create interesting table dynamics. Also the fact that with 5 players, each of your "friends" has a "friend" that is your "enemy" and contrary, each "friend" shares a common "enemy" (who is also your other "friend"s other "friend"!) Let the politics begin! Unfortunatly, the cards are still fairly random and this anyalsis only shows what "tends" to happen so it is not this clear cut.

Also note that since the "average value" of an opion poll is positive in respect to each party, they tend to ALWAYS be benefical. While still random, one can use probability to determine the effects of the card and its likely price for each person in a given region and situation. Also, given the above observation of movement interactions, One can fear less under specific circumstances (and fear more under others! )I think good awareness of these facts should help calm people down in thier unlikeness towards this aspect of the game.

Quick notes on this value, the card seems to be always worth at least 4k even in the lowest region, mainly because of the die roll for party membership. in the 80 region, it can be worth over 25K just in seat contributions. Note that it is obviously worth relativly more to thoose who have more meeting markers in the region (I assumed 10), but not necessarily worth more to one who allready has 50 potential votes (thoose who can improve thier situation get more value out of an increase from the card, while thoose currently maxed at 50 votes are only betting on the 2 of 5 chance that they will go down). Lastly, the 4k-25k only really measures expected value from $$ gained from winning seats, the potential it has to make or break an election (especially later on) dramatically increases this value.
 
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