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Subject: event probability rss

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Greg Lindsley
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Ever wonder what the odds of the next round's event being "bad" or "very bad"? I did some quick math and came up with the following chart. I did not do any sort of advanced statistics, but hopefully this helps as a rough guide

There are 12 possible event cards for 2 rounds per Age for a total of 48 possibilities for 8 rounds. To keep things simple, I measured 5 things

How many cards reward the highest military?
How many cards punish the lowest military?
How many cards reward the highest stability?
How many cards do something different, such as reward highest food?
What is the average famine hit?


Mind you, many cards can have more than one effect, such as reward the highest military AND punish the lowest


Age I
Highest Military: 25% chance
Lowest Military: 42% chance
Highest Stability: 58% chance
Lowest Stability: 25% chance
Something else: 42% chance
Famine: -1.3


Age II
Highest Military: 33% chance
Lowest Military: 42% chance
Highest Stability: 33% chance
Lowest Stability: 42% chance
Something else: 58% chance
Famine: -1.8

Age III
Highest Military: 17% chance
Lowest Military: 33% chance
Highest Stability: 50% chance
Lowest Stability: 42% chance
Something else: 58% chance
Famine: -2.5

Age IV
Highest Military: 17% chance
Lowest Military: 33% chance
Highest Stability: 25% chance
Lowest Stability: 67% chance
Something else: 25% chance
Famine: -3.5

Summary
-Generally, you want to avoid low stability or at least have the ability to increase it
-Getting hit for lowest military is more of a problem in the early game
-By Age III you should be able to produce 3 food per round in excess of your other food needs (military, growth, etc.)
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Lucio Pierobon
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Bad Tölz
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Hi Greg, thanks for this interesting data but I have a doubt:

at first glance, since the Events are 2 per card, I'd expect the total of each Age to be in the near neighborood of 200% (meaning 200% +/- 5%) while only Age III numbers sum up to 200%, all the other totals are out of this range.

Am I missing something (as I said it was a first glance) or are the numbers wrong ?

Thanks again
Lucio
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Niklas Brandt
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Some of them refer to weird conditions, such as 'most food'.
 
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Lucio Pierobon
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Mewzor wrote:
Some of them refer to weird conditions, such as 'most food'.


And those should go in the "Something Else" category, so the sum should still be 200%...

Regards
Lucio
 
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Jay Sachs
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Iago71 wrote:
Mewzor wrote:
Some of them refer to weird conditions, such as 'most food'.


And those should go in the "Something Else" category, so the sum should still be 200%...

Regards
Lucio


I think those probabilities may not be independent.
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Jonathan Challis
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Every card has two effects, and may appear in two categories or one...
 
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Greg Lindsley
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Lucio

Thanks for checking my math. I think because there are only 12 cards and 4 possibilities per card, there will be some rounding and not everything will line up exactly.

I did notice that I have Age IV wrong, however. There are a few more "other" effects that I didn't count because they were "may" actions and wouldn't necessarily impact the player. Counting the may actions makes everything line up for Age IV:

Most Military: 16%
Least Military: 34%
Most Stability: 25%
Least Stability: 67%
Other effect: 50%
Average famine: -3.5

With that, each age adds up to between 191% and 208%

Hope that helps,

Greg
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