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Subject: Is there any way to predict when a game will go OOP and prices will skyrocket? rss

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Pete
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Ouija Oracle Card Game?

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Skaak
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Unless you know someone with access to a distributor's stock information, probably not. Maybe enquire at your FLGS; they'd be the closest link in the chain you likely have easy access to.
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Pete
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I think I bought San Juan for $10. What's it going for these days?

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Scott Alden
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There's not many evergreen games in the hobby game market - just buy everything and eventually they all go OOP. Yeah, it's a shotgun approach - but I guess you are speculating to make money?

Edit: I just re-read your post and see you aren't trying to earn money. I agree that there's no real good way to know when something is about to go OOP.
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Skaak
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Aldie wrote:
but I guess you are speculating to make money?


It sounds more like he is sitting on the fence for some games, but wants to be sure to grab them before they go out of print and is wondering if there is any good way to guess when that will be.
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Kevin "Coop" Cooper
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The guaranteed way is to decide you can always pick that game up later. Next time you look the price will be 5 times what you could have paid.
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The highest risk game for OOP high pricing is a good game that doesn't get a ton of initial traction, so reprints aren't run. Check reviews to identify good games, then check that list against available copies for sale/trade on the geek entry.
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Scott Alden
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Mirefox wrote:
Skaak wrote:
Aldie wrote:
but I guess you are speculating to make money?


It sounds more like he is sitting on the fence for some games, but wants to be sure to grab them before they go out of print and is wondering if there is any good way to guess when that will be.


Yes, this is the case. I can't buy them all, so if there were a way to predict which I wouldn't be able to buy in the future, that would be great. As it is, I tend to buy the games that seem a bit more obscure based on word of mouth and availability at my FLGS, but then I miss out on the hotness sometimes.


After observing the market for 15+ years now - My gut feeling is that most new releases go out of print within 1 year's time.
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Pasi Ojala
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It only happens if you like the same games as everyone else. So, the solution is to love the games that only half of the gamers like!

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Scott Nelson
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Splotter Spellen are a good bet to go oop.
Richard Breese's game go oop unless he partners for a bigger run; his usual R&D run is 1000 copies, most sold at Essen and then no more e.g. Key Market or original Reef Encounter. It took a year for RE second edition to come out, but there was no promise it would when the initial run was made.
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Mirefox wrote:
I've been eyeing Keyflower lately and I don't want it to become scare before I pull the trigger, but it isn't sitting at the top of my wish list.


I'd personally recommend not get hung up on buying a game simply because it might go permanently OOP. If it doesn't you can buy it at your leisure. If it does, use this awesome community to find a game that does what the OOP game did but better.
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It's very easy:

Select 2 games you think might go OOP, ask me to pick one of them.

The other one is the one that'll go OOP.
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NightGecko wrote:
Mirefox wrote:
I've been eyeing Keyflower lately and I don't want it to become scare before I pull the trigger, but it isn't sitting at the top of my wish list.


I'd personally recommend not get hung up on buying a game simply because it might go permanently OOP. If it doesn't you can buy it at your leisure. If it does, use this awesome community to find a game that does what the OOP game did but better.


Exactly. There are SOOOOOOO many games out there that if you happen to miss one it's not the end of the world.
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Generally shortly before I get interested in it and decide I want it.
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I've become a bit more of an opportunistic buyer. I snagged KdJ winner Istanbul last week when I saw a lone copy at my FLGS. It apparently is between print runs and getting somewhat scarce in the wild. I did a similar thing last year with Terra Mystica when it was between print runs with a fairly lengthy ETA for the new copies.

But, like you, I am really, really regretting not picking up a cheap copy of San Juan when I could. Ditto for Finca.
 
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Destrio Dai
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if you like obscure games, chances are they won't get reprinted so you better pick them up. otherwise just do research or ask the publisher if they plan to reprint in the future.
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SAKURA in KYOTO 2018 Back to Kansai
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It depends on the game, the publisher, the distribution.

If a game has a lot of specialty components, is from a newish publisher, has limited distribution, then get in early.

If a game is standard components easy to reproduce later, is from an experienced publisher, is generally available, wait it out.

Game publishing is exactly like book publishing (Kosmos is a book publisher for example). A publisher does a print run from 5k-20k say, and if the game sells, they'll do another and another and so on. At some point, the sales decline enough that it's not worth doing another print run. The game does go out of print OOP but not out of stock OOS, as the distributors will still have copies going through to retail.

But when a publisher decides not to re-print, is up to them. They might have newer product that suits their fit better. They might be changing their range, or have a bigger game that they can turn into a brand family. They might have cash flow problems and stick to cash cows for a couple of years.

Finally, the designer generally signs a contract with the publisher, and if the game is not published in a number of years, the license reverts to the designer. At that point, the designer might go to another publisher, who totally revamps the game. Alternately, the original publisher does re-publish the game, but with a new theme and tweaks to the rules.

So a game can move in and out of production in different ways at different times. San Juan could easily return, but not necessarily as San Juan.

But the chances of a game returning are much lower if the publisher is not established, if the actual production is demanding, and if the game just didn't get a good reach across the market in the first place.
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Pas L
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Anything good that either:

A) isn't by a decent sized or well run publisher
B) isn't very popular with a wide audience (games that go a bit beyond the typical in mechanisms)
C) boringly generic and ripe to get replaced when version 102945 under a different name by a different designer comes out.
 
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Derry Salewski
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Scottgun wrote:
NightGecko wrote:
Mirefox wrote:
I've been eyeing Keyflower lately and I don't want it to become scare before I pull the trigger, but it isn't sitting at the top of my wish list.


I'd personally recommend not get hung up on buying a game simply because it might go permanently OOP. If it doesn't you can buy it at your leisure. If it does, use this awesome community to find a game that does what the OOP game did but better.


Exactly. There are SOOOOOOO many games out there that if you happen to miss one it's not the end of the world.


It's not the end of the world, but if you happen to miss keyflower, you are missing something!

 
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Keyflower is a great game. I recommend buying even if you aren't ready to play yet just to be safe.

That said, I suspect it's not going to be out of print for a while. Source of my speculation?
Spoiler (click to reveal)
Unreleased promo tiles have been documented and there was confirmation of another expansion in the works. Knowing that there is more content coming, and that Keyflower has (apparently) been a commercial and critical success, it's hard to believe the base game would go out of print in the short term.


However, this is just speculation on my part. Wouldn't be the first time I've been mistaken... so choose wisely.
 
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Shawn Harriman
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I feel lucky to have snagged a copy of El Grande off CL.
After looking for a decent priced used copy for a few months I felt I should jump on the 1 I saw as soon as I did.
I am still trying to get a copy of Caylus before it goes the way of WOW I cannot afford that game I guess.

The vast majority of games produced will not increase in value.
Finding the few that will at a good price before they get scarce is always a challenge.
 
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Mirefox wrote:
I remember passing by San Juan a few dozen times and then suddenly - and when I finally wanted it - it was OOP and costs skyrocketed. I found it at a FLGS, so I was lucky, but is there a way to predict when a game will likely go OOP? I've been eyeing Keyflower lately and I don't want it to become scare before I pull the trigger, but it isn't sitting at the top of my wish list.


If you are buying games to play* then just have patience.

If a game is a must buy when it is in print, then buy it. If it's not a must buy when it is in print, it does not become a must buy just because it goes out of print. Nearly anything good will have future printings or a new edition within 5 years of going OoP. In the meantime, focus on the higher priority games from your wish list.

Myself, I am keeping an eager eye out for the second printing of Star Realms to ship and for Nefarious to be published by the new owners, but that hasn't stopped me from picking and playing other highly worthy games.


Spoiler (click to reveal)
* If instead you are buying games to speculate on future value then you very probably need to talk with at least a financial planner if not a psychiatrist.

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Josh Chen
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I just realized Targi, Goa, and Fresco are all OOP! I can't get a $100 order together without missing some games that I want. Oh boy!
 
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Matt Brown
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NightGecko wrote:
Mirefox wrote:
I've been eyeing Keyflower lately and I don't want it to become scare before I pull the trigger, but it isn't sitting at the top of my wish list.


I'd personally recommend not get hung up on buying a game simply because it might go permanently OOP. If it doesn't you can buy it at your leisure. If it does, use this awesome community to find a game that does what the OOP game did but better.


The problem with Keyflower is that it does stand out as a more unique game and ones that are close to it might not be nearly as good. Any of the Key games are unfortunately being held back by the designer and when word came there were going to be copies of Keyflower sold in North America, I made sure to preorder it.

Lower ranked games are were things get trickier. They are more likely to go OOP for longer periods of time(years), or simply go OOP. My guess is San Juan is merely between prints but the game might be in the hands of Z-Man, and they, unfortunately, are known for taking their sweet time reprinting games. I'm rather sure a guy I play with would love a copy of San Juan, but he knows the current prices are horrendous for the game. I'm not sure if I should show him Glory to Rome or not. whistle
 
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Brian Fong
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Mirefox wrote:
I remember passing by San Juan a few dozen times and then suddenly - and when I finally wanted it - it was OOP and costs skyrocketed. I found it at a FLGS, so I was lucky, but is there a way to predict when a game will likely go OOP? I've been eyeing Keyflower lately and I don't want it to become scare before I pull the trigger, but it isn't sitting at the top of my wish list.


In one word: No.
In two words: Not really.
In three words: Sorry, don't know.
In four words: No way to tell.
In five words: Check the wishlists on BGG.
In six words: Only time will let us know.
In seven words: Keep asking Pete cause he may know.
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