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Subject: Those accursed die rolls rss

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Scott Evans
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I'm really enjoying this game now that (with the community's help) I've cleared up some rules questions. What I was faced with today, however, was really surprising. A lone, disordered Lancastrian infantry unit was at the gate on Shropeshire Lane. A healthy dismounted men at arms was on the lane leading to the gate and decided to shock. So it's +1 for DM against Infantry, +1 for enemy disordered and -1 for the gate. So it's +1 overall. I roll a stinking 0. York's healthy, plated men are disordered. It's almost Pythonesque. But more importantly, is it historical, and if not, what can be done? I have seen other postings regarding the vagaries of the D10 compared to 2D6. Are there fixes or variants out there which would make these encounters more believable? I think my problem rests with the knowledge that an "Attacker Disordered" and a "Defender Eliminated, Continue Attack" are equally likely based on a D10 die roll, but they would not be equally likely in real life. My men are, quiet frankly, most embarrassed.
Then again, I could have screwed up and misinterpreted the rules!
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beresford dickens
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The Duke of Wellington when describing the Waterloo campaign said something like 'Napoleon's campaign was like a fine harness; mine was made of rope. If one broke, I tied a knot and carried on'. Of course it was not a certainty that your attack would succeed; what was your contingency plan?
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Scott Evans
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A certainty? Of course not. That is what dice are for. I think, however, that the best play of dice relegates the extremes to the periphery. Even odds at being disordered or given a continued attack? Really?
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Christopher
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I wade into statistical or probability discussions warily... but glancing at the chart, it seems to me that you had a 60% chance of a positive result (retiring or eliminating the enemy), 30% of having no effect, and 10% of things going sour. This particular attack alas went sour.

Maybe the lead guy tripped over a loose cobblestone and the rest of the force, crammed together, followed suit.
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Ralph Shelton
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derz wrote:
A certainty? Of course not. That is what dice are for. I think, however, that the best play of dice relegates the extremes to the periphery. Even odds at being disordered or given a continued attack? Really?

This statement does not take into account the DRMs involved. That is what makes the results vary more in one direction than another.

The key is to attack in ways to minimize the chances of a negative result and maximize the chances of a positive result. You are not forced to attack, so you can always await more favorable DRMs.
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Scott Evans
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Thanks for wading in Ralph. I appreciate your attentiveness to the forums and input into these questions. However, your response is disingenuous. A D10 yields 10 different results with equal probability. The DRM's do little to effect the outcome. A 2D6 yields 11 results with a very real distribution curve. You can plan an attack based on the probabilities of a 2D6 distribution, but not on a straight D10, regardless of the DRM.
Still, I really like the game and am having a lot of fun, as well as learning about English history. In a way, screaming at the dice as they betray me is almost worth the price of the game. Almost.
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Ralph Shelton
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Scott, I am glad you are enjoying the game.
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Chris Stimpson
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Not trying to tinker with an established system, but could you use 2D6 and count 6s as zeros? That way you would get a maximum of 10 for any roll and some better distribution. But how would you get a 1 or a zero? I guess for each 1 you roll you would deduct 1 from the total, but I don't know how badly that skews distribution (not a statistician).
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Scott Evans
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A result of 5 would be the most common result. A zero could be rolled with two sixes. A one could be rolled with a six and one (this could happen in two different ways, 6,1 and 1,6). Better distribution, outliers would be at a 1:36 ratio instead of 1:10.
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Scott Evans
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As I said, Pythonesque But maybe that's what I find so irritatingly compelling about the game - the unexpected.
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Scott Evans
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The above was in reply to Christopher. Sorry for the confusion, still coming to grips with message board protocol!
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Chris Stimpson
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Some more thoughts on this, from a non-statistician.

Assumption:

the OP wants die rolls to more closely follow probability curves created by 2d6, not 1d10 with #s 0-9.

Repeated fact:

I am not a statistician.

Probs for 2d6s:

result - %prob

2: - - - - 2.78
3: - - - - 5.56
4: - - - - 8.33
5: - - - -11.1
6: - - - -13.89
7: - - - -16.67
8: - - - -13.89
9: - - - -11.1
10: - - - -8.33
11: - - - -5.56
12: - - - -2.78

From this we want die roll results that range from 0-9.
And presumably, a result of 1 should happen less frequently than a result of 2, and a result of 0 should happen less frequently than a result of 1.

How about:

you accept die rolls that range from 2-9.

If you roll a 10 (8.33% prob), make a subsequent roll of a 1d6; if the result is 6 (net probability 8.33/6 = 1.4)*, you have just rolled a '1'.

If you roll an 11 (5.56% prob), make a subsequent roll of a 1d6; if the result is 6 (net probability 5.56/6 = 0.9)*, you have just rolled a '0'.

If you roll a 12, ignore and roll again.

Does that work for anyone?

*Weigh in, statisticians. Was that not even worthy of first-grade math? Bear in mind:

I am not a statistician.
I am not a statistician.

And in case you were wondering:

I am not a statistician.
 
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